#132 Nifty Update: "Grey Friday"

Confused? Why Grey Friday?..Generally we gve names like Black Friday (Terriost attack), Black Monday (Stock market lower circuit 2004).. thn why not name “Grey” to days to whch we have seen some bearish breakouts or bearish news too. On my view to name it we can name 17th August as GREY Friday for 2 reasons one funda and one technical each.1) CAG report was tabled in parliament which stated scam of Rs.1.85lakh crores. 2)Upside channel was broken. Elaborating fundamental reason of CAG, i m of view that it is the biggest shame to Indian politics or to be specific UPA government. Just imagine if that Rs.1.85 lakh crores wld have gone to Indian govt than m sure tht we cld have been ahead or atleast at par with China economy last decade. Pvt group named in report such as JIndal, Tata , Reliance (ADAG)etc. are gonna be hard hit fundamentally if this is case is gvn fair result. More funda news this weekend were that Oil ministry is planning to raise Petrol prices by Rs.3, Diesel by Rs.4-5 and Cooking gas by Rs.50-100. This hike may come after 7 Sept when parilaments monsoon season closes. Globally Sept 12th is the deciding day for the German govt as the case hearing is on same day. RBI policy is on 17th Sept and rate hike is to be considered after new inflation numbers. July inflation has improved but due to deficit monsoon august may seen inflation bouncing back at higher levels so we might have to weight and watch. Now coming to technical we have seen a upside channel breakout friday in the court of bears. As you all could notice that market has exactly stopped arnd the support line of channel. Even friday’s closing has given a DOJI on chart signalling a Pause to previous trend (nxt trnd could be any). Why am i saying this to be important breakout is because markets had taken support of the channel line for 6th time and then it lost the battle. Now tomorrows opening will decide the trend. If the markets open below 5366 or closes below 5384 the downside could be confirmed. Upside is capped at 5390 for time being. On downside we may see 5220. So my current call is Short :NIFTY at CMP. Stop loss: 5390 tgts 5306/5285/5265/5220

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