Monthly Archives: April 2011

#8 Nifty Update

NIFTY boomed today with another century in recent times. NIFTY was expected to be down but was positive today because of US and other Asian markets were positive last night. NIFTY for first few hours hovered around the 5783 level which was our first resistance level. Around 11pm it showed some negative side on the news of 2G scam which stated that Court didn’t permit bail to DB Reality, Unitech and RCom Executives. But that news didnt sustain for much time and NIFTY remain positive and boomed after then with unbeaten Century. NIFTY daily stochastic and MACD are still showing some bearish trend for the index. Tomorrow we might see some profit booking and on Friday market are closed on account of Good Friday. NIFTY crucial level is yet 5937.
NIFTY levels for 21st April
S-5823         R-5886
S-5790         R-5937
S-5742         R-5985
S-5700         R-6015

#7 Nifty Update

NIFTY closed at 5740 almost flat with 11 points positive. NIFTY was quite a bit volatile today with its high of 82 points from the low. Infosys the hot topic in the stock market was also down below its 200 DEMA. Market right now is trending in stock specific situation rather then NIFTY as a Index. HDFC came out with some good result yesterday but it seemed that traders had already discounted the news yesterday. Today Vedanata bought stake in Cairn India upto 11% through block deal with Sesa Goa its catalyst. It was in news that Samsung may buy Pipava at Rs.110/share with deal completed within a week. So Pipava is the stock to look out this week. Overall NIFTY seems to be weak on daily graph and Weekly graph  also has shown some weakness. Strategy for tomorrow will be Sell NIFTY on rise with a SL-5793.

NIFTY levels for 20th April
S-5700     R-5783
S-5678     R-5824
S-5615     R-5870
S-5561     R-5923

#6 Nifty Update

NIFTY banged today with the two main Headlines: 1) INFOSYS result were below expectation 2) Inflation increase on MoM for the March 2011. NIFTY closed in red at 5824 which was my 2cd support for the day. As expected we show some profit booking in early trades so it opened negative but as soon as the INFOSYS result was out and it came below expectation market was dragged down to my support of 5858 and hovered around tht same level for quiet a time. At 11:30 Inflation data was out and it supported the down rally and dragged NIFTY to levels 0f 5800 but bounced back to 5824 on closure. NIFTY daily oscillators are showing a down trend specially RSI has confirmed but if we see one more day of downside then MACD will also confirm. Where as on weekly chart Stochastic and MACD are still supporting bull trend but RSI isn’t. Now all the results are going to be out and it seems market will be dragged down more as Q4 had high raw material cost almost in all sectors which will bring down the profits of all companies below street expectations. So still I recommend not to take long positions. Crucial level for bull trend as m saying since a week is 5937
NIFTY levels for 18th April:
S-5775       R-5852
S-5745       R-5908
S-5700       R-5937
S-5677        R-6015

#5 Nifty Update

NIFTY made a brilliant century with 125 points unbeaten. NIFTY opened at 5750 and closed at 5911. NIFTY turned back from the crucial support level as I had mentioned in my earlier posts. But NIFTY’s century was just unexpected. It has created a bullish engulfing pattern today signaling a temporary bullish move for the index. Today SGX Nifty was trading well down by 1% in the opening but all changed in first hour of Indian markets opening. NIFTY can be confirmed in bull run unless and until it crosses above 5937 level for atleast 2-3 days. Traders can buy NIFTY for 2-3 days with the target of 6015 while long term investors can starting buying in parts and not in full as we might seen some downfall next week which would be good opportunity for averaging .
NIFTY levels for 15th April:
S-5859        R-5937
S-5820        R-5971
S-5770        R-6015
S-5721        R-6082

#4 Nifty Update

NIFTY as expected closed in red today at 5785.70.  NIFTY had two big news today 1) Sun Pharma’s Deal with Merck and 2)IIP date of Feb. Sun Pharma news was stock specific and it was a deal worth 60000 cr while IIP data were negative which acted as a catalyst to bearish trend for the NIFTY. Relinfra’s buyback offer opened today which Cairn India’s open offer at Rs.355/share was also opened today but NIFTY reacted more strongly on IIP data and was down almost by a 1%. NIFTY opened at  5805 and hovered around 5824 which was my support but as soon as IIP data were announced it came down to another support at 5790 and was around the same level until last 30 mins when it touched 5775. Now RSI and Stochastic is yet turning down and showing a bearish trend for short term. While weekly and Monthly RSI also turned downside showing a bearish trend. NIFTY should bounce back from 5750 or latest frm 5700 breakout of that level otherwise will result into more bearish trend. BankNifty and Nifty Midcap are supporting NIFTY50 therefore don’t take any fresh long position until reversal is confirmed.
Levels for 13th April 2011:
S-5759       R-5823
S-5721       R-5855
S-5700       R-5906
S-5666       R-5937

#3 Nifty Update

NIFTY closed in Red at 5842 as expected. It made a low at 5822 near my suggested level of 5824. NIFTY first hovered around the level of 5862 which was my first support after breaking that it came down to 5822 which was next support. NIFTY now has confirmed a small correction about 100 points from this point. NIFTY confirmed downtrend on daily charts by preparing a red candle after a doji and on the same time on Weekly chart it has created a “Grave Stone Doji” which is a sign of reversal towards down. On daily charts Stochastic made crossover signaling a Sell but it is still in overbought condition while RSI has came down from overbought condition towards down supporting the down trend. Weekly and Monthly Stochastic and RSI are signaling Bulls Strength so strategy on NIFTY can be buying on DIPS. Best Buy levels can be 5795 and 5753 on dips while on uptrend buy above 5937.  
Levels for 11th April
S-5824      R-5862
S-5807      R-5886
S-5795      R-5937
S-5753      R-6015

#2 Nifty Update

NIFTY closed today at 5885.70. NIFTY made low and took support at 5866 as mentioned by me yesterday.  Today NIFTY daily created a Doji which is a sign of reversal of prevailing trend which in our case is bullish trend.  5day EMA is at 5866 which is acting as a support for NIFTY since last 2 trading sessions. NIFTY has traded in range between 5866-5937 till now in this week which is a “line” formation as per Dow Theory. “line” formation indicates a consolidation phase and breakout on either levels (5866 or 5937) would decide the next trend. Prevailing Week candle on Weekly chart has formed up a shooting star at top of the trend which might be a sign of small correction. Daily oscillators (RSI and Stochastic) are indicating a downtrend and MACD also joined the race for showing a slight turnaround. But weekly indicators are showing some upward movement but 14week RSI has entered overbought condition. Now question arises where will market head towards??? We will get the answer in  2 trading sessions but tomorrow watch out for 2 crucial levels 5866 and 5937.

NIFTY levels for 8th April
S-5862      R-5906
S-5824      R-5937
S-5790      R-5964
S-5753      R-6025

#1 Nifty Update

NIFTY closed at 5891.75 today. NIFTY daily momentum indicators are trading in overbought condition but Weekly indicators are yet bullish on the market which means that there might be small correction of 50-100 points with 2-3 trading sessions. On daily charts NIFTY is trading above all the moving averages and at the same time we just saw crossover of 20EMA over 100EMA and 50EMA cross over 200EMA which is  a bullish sign, on the other side 5weekEMA crossed all weekly EMA’s which suggests a strong weeks on NIFTY. AS per the Fibonacci Retrenchment drawn on daily NIFTY of last one year the nearby resistance level is 5937 and NIFTY validated it yesterday and day before. Even the resistance trend line (which was a support line as for trend since 2009-Jan 2011) intersects Fibonacci at 5937 level which makes it a strong Resistance level for next few sessions. Hence we might see some correction to the current bullish market but it doesn’t seem to long. With the Mid-Caps leading the race market seems to cross 6000 level mark once it crosses 5937 on closing basis.
NIFTY levels:
S-5862      R-6037
S-5767      R-6082
S-5646      R-6165
S-5608      R-6285