Monthly Archives: June 2011

#37 Nifty Update

NIFTY was a boomerang today with a volatile session but at the end it gave a end above the crucial breakout of 5600 at 5647. NIFTY has to close above 5600 level one more day to confirm the false formation of inverted head and shoulder. Next resistance level is 5720-5750 which a Fibonacci retrenchment level of last one year is. RSI and MACD on daily chart are showing strength for bulls while stochastic is showing some profit booking for almost 50-70 points. Greece bailout plan was final passed yesterday which gave a boost to all markets around the world including commodity markets. Indian Inflation is gonna possible stable near 6.5% mark by March 2012 as said by PM. Today being expiry in last few mins heavy buying was seen in the market. NIFTY now seems to have catch up a good move so strategy is to buy NIFTY with Targets 5720/5936 with a SL of 5575.
NIFTY levels for 1st July:-
R-5688             S-5600
R-5700             S-5576
R-5731             S-5556
R-5750             S-5508

#36 Nifty Update

NIFTY is acting as a JUMPER since last 5 trading sessions with recovery of almost 300 points which is good for us. Market closed at a very crucial point i.e., 5600 level which is a most important level for breakout. Technically speaking today market opened with a Gap of 8 points which is significant. if market closed above 5600 levels for 2 more trading session then we could see 5936 levels. Double bottom is witnessed on weekly chart as seen in the graph today. All the global cues are positive and so we have seen a rally towards sky in all the markets. TATA motors got some relief on singur land and govt. won’t return land to farmers. In Auto segement, Toyota  Etios is giving a good fight to Maruti’s Dzire. Vedanta-Cairn deal has moved further 10% up on the acquisition of “buy back” shares by Vedanata and remaining 30% deal to commence after government nod. My long term picks Jain Irrigation, TATA Steel and BHEL have achieved their first target and I still recommend to buy on dips for long term. Strategy for tomorrow is wait and watch as its expiry tomorrow. Don’t take any new positions until market is above 5700 and exit in existing positions below 5500.
NIFTY levels for 30th June:-
R-5667             S-5575
R-5700             S-5525
R-5731             S-5508
R-5750             S-5460

#35 Nifty Update

Today the fight was between rumors and technicals. Rumors were strong at the start with the high of around 5557 while technicals were indicating a down trend and market made low of around 5496 from the
high. But at the end rumors were slightly strong and ended up with 18 points up. NIFTY is facing two strong resistance at 5566 and 5576 which ought to be 100 DEMA and 200 DEMA respectively. Technically speaking market will resist around 5570 levels and have a bounce back
upto 5330. But a dragon fly Doji has been witnessed today on daily chart so probably we might see a upside potential but only if we see a breakout of 5576. On the positive side, FII has been increasing its activities in the Indian market and we have seen incredible increase in net investment by them in last 3 trading session. Hike in price isvbeen positively discounted by the analyst as it was necessary for fiscal control and inflation. All the foreign markets are in positive rally which has supported our markets. Mutual funds will be a new scheme of investing for FII and SEBI is working on the norms for the same. My last week portfolio pick “jain irrigation” has shown the movement and have achieved almost rs.14 from my call. Being a Technical Analyst i still suggest selling NIFTY (cash) with a Stop loss of 5586 and Buy NIFTY above 5600 with SL-5556.
NIFTY levels for 29th June:-
R-5566             S-5524
R-5576             S-5500
R-5609             S-5472
R-5650             S-5442

#34 Nifty Update

NIFTY was a “DOUBLE DHAMAAL” with 2 consecutive bull trading session. This wasnt expected by the market players but as i said in my previous reports market resisted near to almost 5570 levels which is a 200 DEMA. I had even asked you all to buy NIFTY around 5320 levels with a target of 5556 which is achieved today. NIFTY closed around 5530 which is a positive sign but technical speaking tomorrow you might expect some downside movement. On Friday NIFTY had opened with a gap up of 20 points which market has to still fill up and so expect market to take support around 5300 levels. A probable inverted head and shoulder is in formation with 5600 as a Neckline but before that it should come down to levels of 5330 to make it a valid formation. Diesel and LPG price hike was taken positively by the investors as it was a necessary to control inflation. Government reduced excise on diesel by rs.2.6ltr and 5% was reduced on custom duty of Crude oil but still government will make profit worth of Rs. 21000cr which is a good relief on fiscal side. Now the short term strategy will be sell on rise with target of 5340 with a Stop loss on closing basis of 5586.          But in market rumors are spreading that in next 2 days market is expected to touch 5720. So be CAUTIOUS!!!!
NIFTY levels for 28th June:-
R- 5567            S-5500
R-5582             S-5476
R- 5600            S-5442
R-5650             S-5400

#12 Stock Update: Portfolio Pick:- Jain Irrigation

CODE: JISLJALEQS     Sector: – Plastics

CMP: – 157.25     Strategy: – Buy on Dips   SL: – 125   Targets: – 176/183/200/215/237/270

About the Company: –

 The Corporation has multi product industrial profile and manufacturers of Drip and Sprinkler Irrigation Systems and Components; PVC, Polyethylene (HDPE, MDPE) & Polypropylene Piping Systems; Plastic Sheets (PVC & PC sheets); Dehydrated Onions and Vegetables; Processed Fruits; Tissue Culture, Hybrid & Grafted Plants; Greenhouses, Poly and Shade Houses; Bio-fertilizers; Solar Water Heating Systems and Solar Photovoltaic Appliances (Solar lighting systems) and Bio-Energy sources. We render consultancy for complete or partial project planning and implementation e.g. Watershed or Wasteland and / or Crop Selection and Rotation.

My Views:-

Jain Irrigation is a Multinational company with presence in over 120 countries and around 22 plants across the globe. It has been performing well over the years with the CAGR of 41% which is simply outstanding. Its book value as per last financial year ending balance sheet is 176. It is in the business of making products which are helpful for agricultural and agricultural is the sector which won’t die ever in the world. In India, farmers are going towards professional farming and the demand for such products is going to increase which is a good sign for the company. The company has its FCCBs and listing even on Singapore and Luxembourg which means company is world renown.  Technical speaking it is available at discount because market value is 157 while book value is 176. If we check out daily chart, then a probable inverted Head and shoulder is about to form which has a breakout at 176 levels which ought to be book value too. Weekly chart has shown bullish engulfing pattern with the strong support of all the indicators. I recommend making some space for this stock for your long term portfolio.

Source:- Moneycontrol.com, www.jains.com, www.utvmoney.com

#11 Stock Update: Weekly Picks 27th June to 1st July

STOCK
CMP
TARGETS
STOP LOSS
REMARKS
LONG TERM HOLD
Ranbaxy
535.50
575
515
“Morning star” pattern is seen on dailychart while Dragon fly Doji is seen on weekly chart. On daily Chart RSI and stochastic are suggesting a strong buy with 56 and 35 levels respectively.
Yes with Tgt of  628
PIRHealth
374.20
394
362
A dragon fly Doji is supported pn weekly chart with a long legged spin bodied bull candle. 14 Day RSI is strong on daily chart at 46.
Yes with tgt of 430
L&T
1739.40

1766/1802
1703
A close over 200 DEMA on daily chart with strong buy indication by Stochastic for short term. Weekly Indicators are strong with MACD and RSI.
Yes but buy on dips with SL of 1637 and tgt 2002.
JSW Steel
871.30
887/903
835
BUY on dips. “Morning star” formation has been seen on daily chart with a stochastic crossover at the 30 levels. Dragon fly doji is witnessed on weekly chart.
Yes with a SL of 800 and tgt of 996 to 1050

ICICI Bank
1064
1090/1127
1035
Daily chart has witnessed close over 200 DEMA and all other major moving averages. RSI and Stochastic are strong at 50 level marks.
No
Hindalco
172.80
180/186
167
“Morning Star” has been seen on daily chart which is a reversal sign of the down trend. RSI is at 52 showing strong buy with MACD and Stochastic supporting it. On weekly chart long legged bull candle is also representing bullish sentiments of investors.
No
Bajaj- Auto
1387
1422/1458
1340
A long bullish candle is seen on daily chart with MACD crossing the centre line. RSI is at 59 suggesting a buy for the stock. Weekly chart is also showing some dicey picture.
Risky investors can with a SL of 1258 and tgt 1650

#33 Nifty Update

NIFTY was unbeaten with 151 points to close around 5471. As i had been saying about the crucial level of 5350, today the close has been above that level which is a good sign for the market. Major reason for the spike was relief of the Greece Debt by EU leaders. Commodity prices have seen sharp fall which is a good sign for the Q3 margins of the company. Today EGoM is gonna meet up for the Hike in diesel prices
which gave all Oil Companies a hike of around 3% on dalal street. On the other side, telecom department is working on reducing circles of operation from 22 to 4 or even 1 which means consumer wont have to pay any roaming charges and all INDIA will be local. Bill is expected to be passed by end of this year. Now, NIFTY seems to catch momentum for the up move. Our strategy for long term will be Buying NIFTY on Dips with a SL of 5356.

NIFTY levels for 27th June:-

R-5504  S-5424 
R-5570  S-5381
R-5609  S-5356
R-5667  S-5300

#32 Nifty Update

Bulls were on the winning edge in the crucial match against bears today. Rahul Dravid , the wall of India saved team against WI yesterday while “wall of stock market” i.e., Reliance Industries saved
dalal street with 2.92% not out. Bulls won the match by 41.70 points to achieve the target of 5320. A Bullish engulfing pattern is witnessed i.e., a long bull candle covered previous bear candle
completely. Is this the end of the bear run??? Nope…We cannot confirm unless the closing is over 5350. A probable upside head and shoulder has been formed on daily chart. TATA Motors, TCS and Hero
Honda gave some support to the move of NIFTY. GTL is one of the most talked stock on dalal street due to its 80% decline in last 3 session but still I suggest “AVOID NEW POSITIONS” in the stock. There are
almost 50 companies which includes Hero Honda, Shree Renuka sugars, Alok txt, Tata Global , tata Power and many more whose more than 25% shares are pledged which is weak signal for new positions for the same. I will try to provide with list of those 50 stocks in a day or 2. So, Strategy for NIFTY is wait and watch until the close is 
above 5350 or below 5200.
NIFTY levels for 24th June:-
R-5356  S-5276
R-5400  S-5250
R-5442  S-5200
R-5482 S-5176

#31 Nifty Update

Today Bulls and Bears were playing a test match where the end result was a draw. NIFTY closed almost flat at 5278 giving no win to either side. All the front line stocks are already so discounted in the current scenario. If we compare the price of each blue chip companies
with its historical prices on previous 5300 level mark they are way discounted. Market today confirmed “rounding formation”, which I mentioned in last 4-5 reports, as it closed for 3rd consecutive day below 5350 which was the neckline for the formation. Midcap was
Sledged by traders today. Titan industries was down by almost Rs.300. Bank sector was a bit less banged. In Telecom sector Idea and Bharti Airtel were slashed by almost 2-4% each and
expect some short term downwards correction in this sector. In NIFTY50, LT, BAJAJ-AUTO, AXIS BANK ,ONGC ,CIPLA and M&M were the few who hold up the market. Daily Indicators Stochastic and RSI have started showing “Possible Signs” of uptrend but all depends on Greece
debt crisis and Mauritius tax Treaty. Many analysts says that RBI is at the peak of its rates and you may not see any further hike in rates which is a relief for banking stocks and the market as a whole. But still stay away from the market unless the closing is above 5300-5350
level for 2-3 consecutive days
NIFTY levels for 23rd June:-
R-5313  S-5262  
R-5350  S-5196  
R-5400  S-5147  
R-5442  S-5100   

#30 Nifty Update

Today NIFTY opened in positive note with some short covering. It was up by almost 60 points but later on it was almost flat. Now we are hearing the case of pledging shares by companies. Yesterday it was GTL while today ORCHIDCHEM pledged its 80% shares and 87% of total is held by McDowell (as per my knowledge, figures may vary). NIFTY is now trading well below all the support levels. Now the major support level is 4786 which is the low of last one year made on 25 may 2010. I will suggest don’t take any fresh position in any stocks because yet the trend is undecided. Strategy for the NIFTY is sell on rise with the SL-5395.
NIFTY levels for 22cd June
R-5338   S-5257
R-5356  S-5196
R-5394  S-5147
R-5449  S-4984