Monthly Archives: July 2011

#61 Nifty Update

NIFTY was taken over by bears since Tuesday of the week. On Monday, NIFTY confirmed the morning start which I mentioned in NIFTY view of my last Sunday. But we could notice that for the second time in last 1 month NIFTY could not confirm its breach over the strong resistance line. That resistance in the graph has been validated 6 times in last one year which means that market yet not in full control of bulls. Last week RBI announced 50 bps hikes instead of expected 25 bps hike which failed to confirm bulls. Second biggest domestic news was that of illegal mining state of Karnataka. Many well known companies have been stated in this 2cd biggest scam after 2G scam. Companies such Adani Enterprise, Sesa Goa and JSW steel to name few are mentioned in scam till now. This has focused import of iron ore from outside India to continue production. Now next week 2cd August is the Deciding day for US debt market which will have effect on world economy. China and Japan are the major chuck holder of US treasury bills so they are praying that US doesn’t default the deadline. So wait for some more time to make fresh long positions. Technically speaking chart has witnessed two consecutive Doji’s of which latter being a “gravestone doji” supporting bears. 14 Day RSI has breached 50 level mark to 43 signaling a sell for NIFTY whereas MACD is just to cross central line for the bears. As I have been talking whole month about the “unfilled gap” at 5350 now its time for it get filled. With the current situation of market it seems market will for sure come down to fill it up. Strategy on NIFTY would be to sell with the SL of 5565. But be long on market only if NIFTY Closes above 5644 level thrice this week that too consecutive close.
NIFTY levels :-

#60 Nifty Update

Sorry people for not posting yesterday due to some prior commitments. NIFTY expiry was below 5500 which is a bearish sign. Today market close around 5480 levels almost flat with mixed sentiments with investors. Domestically today we had may major events which were stock specific. Karnataka Illegal mining scam today named Adani Enterprise which made stock fell 23% in no time. Karnataka government has banned all 40 companies in the states which has hampered the production of steel and are facing shortage of Iron ore. Companies have approached foreign mines owners for the import of iron ore for near term production. This is the second biggest scam after the 2G Scam. On other hand ICICI bank posted its result today and it was way beyond street expectation making stock boom in late hours of tradings. Globally US markets is trading volatile on fear of Debt crisis while European Index are trading in red as Italy, Spain and Greece are still facing challenge to stable their economy. Technically speaking market is in bearish mood which sees support at 5442 , 5400 and 5350 levels. I recommend to wait and watch on the NIFTY untill 2cd august which will be the day of announcement of US Debt market decision. Risk taker can buy a 5400 put and 5600 call to have a hedged position.
NIFTY levels for 1st August:-
R-5508             S-5442
R-5524             S-5408
R-5540             S-5380
R-5586             S-5345

#59 Nifty Update

NIFTY still in shock of RBI policy. NIFTY closed at 5546 after opening positive at 5588.  Fundamentally market does not have anything to cheer for so market purely trading on Technical levels. LT finance holding IPO opened today and closes on 29th july with price band of 51 to 59. IPO seems attractive but i feel its lil risky on such choppy situation of market but long term investors can surely subscribe to it. Talking about BHEL, company has posted good results but it was below expectation. Stock was down 4% consecutively for 2cd day. BHEL has support around 1732 so i recommend to buy on DIPS. Coal India is outperforming market. It is going to be introduce in F&O segment soon and Mining industry is expecting good reforms from the ministry so I recommend to buy stock on dips for portfolio pick with holding period  of 6months to 2 years. RBI policy came as shocking to the investors and generally public yesterday but a nice explanation was given by a RBI official in “MINT” today. he said when inflation is roaring you need to control either side of it i.e., supply or demand. nothing special was done by government to increase supply so RBI had to increase rates to control demand. And i think he was right because unless and until demand is not equal to supply you cannot control rise in price. Technically speaking market closed below 200 DEMA for 2cd consecutive day. RSI and Stochastic are signaling strength for bulls and might fill up the gap of 5350 in next expiry. Expect July expiry to between 5450-5582.
NIFTY levels for 28th July:-
R-5567             S-5525
R-5686             S-5508
R-5616             S-5472
R-5636             S-5442

#58 Nifty Update

NIFTY today showed condolence over the loss of INDIA at Lords ……NIFTY closed at 5574 down by 105 points…If NIFTY would have scored century yesterday at lords then it would have saved India but today it was of no use… RBI hiked rates by 50 bps which was the reason for the down fall. Maruti announced its result which was above expectations i.e., 566 crores profit against expectations of around 438 crores. While BHEL had announced results way below street expectation closing stock down 4% on the markets. JSW Steel just announced its result after market hours and it has beat street expectation with profit almost up by 33% (confirm figures on so stock might see a jump in opening session tomorrow. Technically speaking market for the 2cd time didnt confirm the breakout of Resistance line of the triangle which i mentioned on my sunday’s bulletin. NIFTY closed way below import supports of
5635,5616 and 5581(200 DEMA). Daily NIFTY chart has even seen a tweezer’s top formation today making it bearish chart. Even RSI and MACD has almost confirmed bears in future. So avoid any fresh position in stock until confirmation.
NIFTY levels for 27th July:-
R-5582             S-5562
R-5616             S-5540
R-5635             S-5500
R-5663             S-5472

#57 Nifty Update

Finally bulls are heavy on see-saw game but India still struggling at Lords!!! NIFTY closed at 5680 with 46 points up. Today Reliance was leading the race for the NIFTY with the news on deal finalization and positive expectation of results today eve. Bank of India announced its
result and it was a way below the street expectations at Rs.560 crores vs street expectations of around Rs.700 crores. Sterlite Industries has posted a bumpy growth of 63% on profit on YoY basis while EBITDA was at 28% versus 25.5% on YoY basis. RIL was not yet out with results. The stock in news of Suzlon energy who sold 26% stake in hanseen at around 455 million pounds. It would have a  positive effect on suzlon’s balance sheet to some extent as they could lower their 10000crores debt. Key sector today was telecom sector with individual stocks like idea, bhari and rcom were up by almost 5-8%. RIL numbers are slightly above the Street expectations. Net profit was at 5661 crores vs 4800 crores on YoY basis while GRM increased to $10.3/bbl from $7.2/bbl. Technically speaking, NIFTY has given a confirmation to a preceding “morning star patter”. Today it gave breakout of a “symmetric triangle” which i mentioned in my sunday’s NIFY view. Now if the expiry is above 5650 then we can confirm the strength of bulls and see
the new highs for the market. I strongly recommend to buy NIFTY on dips with SL of 5540
NIFTY levels for 26th July:-
R-5705             S-5663
R-5749             S-5616
R-5770             S-5581

R-5806             S-5536

#56 Nifty Update

NIFTY has been too indecisive to decide its further trend. Bulls and bears are on equal side i.e., Bulls have a morning star pattern on daily chart while bears have a unfilled gap and strong resistance of triangle formation. All the major moving averages are hovering around almost same levels as written on the graph. RSI is on 56 and Stochastic on 34 indicating a bull phase but MACD which is a wider view is indicating bears yet. On the Fundamental side, globally Greece is bailed out which is a good news but domestically none of the companies are posting good results. RIL-BP deal was passed on Friday evening which can be a good positive news for the Indian industry. But on 26th july we have a RBI policy review and its expected to may hike rates by 25bps to control the inflation. So now we have to wait and watch for the further move. Markets bull phase can be only confirmed if it closes above 5660 levels for 3 consecutive days in next week. So strategy for the NIFTY will be deferring from individual to individual. But do keep the above levels on the graph in mind while trading as they have been validated many times by market in last one year as you can notice. 

#16 Stock Update: Weekly Picks 25th July to 29th July

Stock has been taking strong support at 124. It has seen close over all the short term moving averages. RSI and Stochastics are supporting bulls so I recommend stock for safe trdrs.
A perfect “Morning star” pattern has been seen. I recommend to buy stock on DIPS.
Jain Irrigation
A stock has witnessed a close over all the short term moving averages with a strong bullish candle. RSI and Stochastic are suggesting buy with SL.
TATA Steel
TATA Steel has been taking support around 570 levels. All the indicators has been bullish crossover.
A Strong bull candle has seen its close over short term moving averages. Stochastic is turning around from the oversold condition.
Nagarjuna Fertilizers

Stock has been taking support of upward trend line since last 2 months. With the positive crossover of the indicators I advise for small cap investors to buy the stock.
Bank India
Stock has been too volatile in last few days. A doji was followed by strong bull candle so I recommend this stock for high risk client.

#55 Nifty Update

Bears and Bulls are playing See-saw!!!! But now i think bulls have taken the driving seat. NIFTY closed on Hill top at 5633 up by 92 points. It has closed above all the major resistance level except the one big 5663. One of the driving force for today’s market was the announcement of bail out plan of Greece yesterday which resulted in all global markets for positive move. On the result side AXIS BANK posted a rise of 27% on YoY basis at 942 crores. It was slightly higher then the market expectation which rose the stock by almost 5%. Just in was that CCEA has approved the Deal of RIL-BP and it will be recorded as the biggest FII deal in India. RIL is also going to post its quarterly results on monday and its expected to post quiet good results. So expect RIL to blast on ODIN screen on monday on both positive news. Technically speaking “Morning Star” pattern has been witnessed on Daily chart of NIFTY. NIFTY close has been above all the moving averages and bullish can be confirmed when monday close is above 5582. On triangle side major resistance is at 5663 on breakout of which you might see new highs. RSI and Stochastic are about to give a bullish breakout. Strategy on NIFTY for risk takers will be buy on Dips with SL of 5567.
NIFTY levels for 25th July:-
R-5657             S-5616
R-5705             S-5582
R-5740             S-5555
R-5806             S-5536

#54 Nifty Update

Pheewwww!!! NIFTY is trading in so narrow range that it has been very difficult for us to decide the direction of our investment. NIFTY closed at 5541 around the crucial retrenchment level (5539) of last rally. NIFTY made high near to 5578 and low at 5532 which were near to my mentioned levels. Earnings of the companies are disappointing this quarter. But Hero Honda posted  growth of 13.5% over the YoY basis while it accelerated revenue by 33% on YoY basis which were slightly higher then street expectations.  While Biocon reported loss of 9% to Rs.70 Crore. While HINDZINC announced its result today and it beats street expectation. Call of 150/160 Strike price of HINDZINC has seen huge addition so i recommend to hold the stock.  Today, Brussels is going to held a meet to decide whether to bail out greece or not. So lets wait for the outcome of meeting which will decide the further movement of our markets. Technically speaking market has given close below 200 DEMA for 2cd consecutive day which almost confirms the bearish movement ahead. Market even closed below 5567 which was fibonacci retrenchment of last one year and 5555 which is 50 DEMA. MACD has shown bearish crossover and it is about to cut central line from above to confirm short position on NIFTY. RSI and Stochastic has also shown likness towards bears. Therefore tomorrow’s session will be important to confirm whether bears are winners or the match is still on.
NIFTY levels for 22cd July:-
R-5555            S-5526
R-5567             S-5506
R-5581             S-5572
R-5630             S-5442

#53 Nifty Update

BINGO!!!!! NIFTY moved in my tune today. As i had mentioned NIFTY resisted near to 5650 (5645) which was my resistance level and took support near to my level of 5551 (5554) as mentioned in my last report. Nifty closed at important level of Fibonacci retrenchment at 5567 down by 46 points. Wipro announced its result today and net profit wsa up by 1% YoY. It beats street expectation of Rs.1327 crores net profit to Rs.1335 crores. LIC housing also announced its result and posted net profit growth of 21% on YoY. Poll estimated a PAT of Rs.287 crore while actual was Rs. 256 crores which means it couldn’t meet up the street expectations. Tomorrow Hind Zinc result is going to be out and i feel it would beat street expectations as the price and demand of Lead and Zinc has seen a spike last year and its new
business in rajasthan will post profits in this quarter for first tym but it we be risky so by it with strict SL. Technically speaking market has closed below a crucial level of 5581 which is 100 and 200 DEMA. It has not be able to give close above that level for any 2 consecutive days in recent past which is a bearish sign. 5567 being a crucial level next support is at 5555 (50 DEMA), 5539 and 5472. A confusing pattern is formed…. its a “tweezers Bottom” or a “bearish engulfing”…so if market is able to break 5551 then u may confirm a down side or with positive move in beginning hours then a upside move but bears are strong.
NIFTY levels for 21st July:-
R-5589            S-5551
R-5616             S-5539
R-5630             S-5506
R-5663             S-5472