Monthly Archives: July 2011

#52 Nifty Update

Surpriseeeeee!!!!! Thats what NIFTY gave to most of the investors after 12….Markets were trading in range bound session in first few hours and it was almost signaling a bearish view as it was not able to break the level of 5581 which ought to be 100 and 200 DEMA. But as soon as European opened in green our market recovered and was up by almost 60 points from yesterday’s close. NIFTY closed at 5613 above a crucial level of 5581 but it couldnt cut through 5630. We cannot yet say that market has caught bullish trend until it closes above 5670
for 2 days. Right now market is in a danger zone. Today we had many companies declaring their quarterly results. HDFC bank declared it result with a growth of 33% in profit on QoQ same period last year. NIM increased by 18% on YoY basis which was slightly above the
expected poll. Ashok Leyland on other hand didn’t meet up with street expectation and profit fell by 30% on YoY basis due to high material cost and margin pressure. And the most disappointing was the result of Cromp greav which almost fell (net profit) by 59% on YoY basis and margin squeezed to arnd 2.5% from arond 10.5%. Till now none of the companies have declared outstanding results so which is sad for Indian markets. On other hand Greek bailout is going to be discussed on Thursday at Brussels. Technically market is in critical position as bulls need 6 runs in 1 ball and on other side bears need only 1 wicket to win i.e, Bulls need 60 points for their favor and bears need a difficult 100 points downside.
NIFTY levels for 20th July:-
R-5630            S-5581
R-5650             S-5551
R-5670             S-5539
R-5700             S-5500

#51 Nifty Update

Market was again boredom for the investors. It almost played in the range of 10 points after the initial volatility during first hour. Market has closed at crucial level of 5567 as i had mentioned as a important support yesterday. Market was not able to take support of 200 DEMA today and closed below it finally after 3 days…Is this the sign of bearish movement??? Global cues are very dangerous as they are on the edge of knife. If Greece is not bailed out then it will have ripple effect on many countries and then to the world. Domestic market has not much news but tomorrow we have results of many important companies such as Ashokley, Wipro, CrompGreav, HDFC bank, SKS and Chambal fert. So i request to be cautious on the above mentioned stocks. Today markets and news where too quiet. Technically speaking market is going to take support of 5567 (fibonacci level), 5551 (50DEMA) and 5540 a last rally retrenchment.
NIFTY levels for 19th July:-
R-5581            S-5551
R-5616             S-5539
R-5630             S-5475
R-5700             S-5400

#50 Nifty Update

Nifty has been very volatile since last few weeks and it has been difficult for traders to decide the trend of the market. Market is purely news based primarily on the global issues in Europe and US. European countries such as Italy and Portugal are in debt restructuring which could weaken their economy affecting the world market. European Index has been more volatile than our market and it’s in danger position. On Friday bank stress test results were out and 9 banks from Europe failed to pass and its effect will be seen on Monday. On the other side in US Bernanke said that don’t expect any further aid for US debt market in recent future. So globally market is looking very dangerous. Domestically Indian companies are announcing their quarter results. Quarterly results are expected to be weak. IT firms are posting flat results with almost marginal change, while in Auto sector 2 wheeler companies are posting high growth and 4 wheelers are posting down grade in demand. Cement sector and steel sector are expected to post negative results due to pressure of high raw material cost on its production. On other side FMCG and PHARMA is expected to post sustainable growth. Telecom sector is a cautious because I feel impact of interest on loans for 3G auction will be reflected in this quarter and 2G scam still on the mouth of each investor its difficult for them to outperform. Now technically speaking market is at very dangerous level. As I had said about the “symmetric triangle” formation, it got validated as market couldn’t close over the resistance line for 3 consecutive days. On other side it is taking strong support of 200 DEMA at 5580 levels. All the indicators are bias as they are contradicting each other. But a gap is still unfilled at 5320 levels and I strongly feel that gap will be filled up any time in future and its better if its early before new highs. So now this expiry will decide whether we could see 5200-5300 levels first or 6000 or new high.
NIFTY levels :-

#15 Stock Update: Weekly Picks 18th July to 22cd July

Stock closed over all the short term moving averages. There is a gap unfilled at 148 so I think stock will fill up that gap this week and I advise you all to buy.
A dragon fly doji closed over all the short term moving averages with the support of all indicators. A gap is unfilled at 144 which is ought to be filled any time.

Stock closed over all the short term moving averages. Weekly RSI is about to give bullish breakout so stock is for only HIGH RISK traders.
A close over all the short term moving averages on daily chart with a dragon fly doji on weekly chart gives validation to MACD central line crossover for bulls.
Jet Airways
A consolidation rectangular breakout with a close over 100 DEMA makes stock bullish for upcoming week. Hold it for 2-3 weeks for 2cd tgt.
Exide Industries

A close over all the short term moving averages with a strong bull candle has been witnessed. A probable double bottom formation has been seen with Dragon fly doji on weekly.
Dr reddy
A close over all the short term moving averages with a bull candle. Weekly RSI has witnessed bullish crossover.

#49 Nifty Update

NIFTY opened flat today at 5599. It made a trap move towards 5630 where people might have thought of 5700 but it crashed from there towards the level of 200 DEMA at 5580 and hovered around that level for almost whole day. Markets seems to be boring today for the traders
except the first hour of trade. Reliance cost issue of KG basin is still on but they claim that it was inflated and it was lower than ONGC and GSPC project cost. On other hand Banks are opposing the idea of decontrol of savings bank rate as it would increase competition which will increase pressure on profit margins. Bernanke of FED said that dont expect an immediate bail out for Debt market of US…So looking at European and US debt market restructuring keeps us
cautious on the global front. Technically speaking market just closed at 200 DEMA at 5581 which is a crucial level. On weekly chart Evening star was not confirmed but still daily MACD seems weak. Until and unless market does not close over 5677 for 3 days dont expect a bull
move. I still recommend selling NIFTY with tgt 5540/5470/5350/5200 with SL of 5700.
NIFTY levels for 18th July:-
R-5637               S-5567
R-5677             S-5539
R-5700             S-5475
R-5749             S-5400

#48 Nifty Update

Before starting my NIFTY diagnosis today i feel sorry for those who lost their loved ones in mumbai blast yesterday. This is the biggest shame to the government after 2008 attack. In the opening part of trading session market did responded to the blast and was weak for few
hours .But as soon as Inflation data was out market reacted positively to it because market has already discounted double figure inflation but actual was single digit so bulls were in favour. TCS just announced its quarterly result and its net profit beats the street expectation by 100 crs to 2380 but however EBIT margin was down by around 2% on QoQ. Bajaj Auto also announced its result today and PAT saw increase of 20% YoY at 711cr.But market expected 726cr so stock
was down. On the other side Revenue grew at 22%. Now coming to Market technicals, it resisted near the resistance level of 5650. Today it filled up the gap upto 5604 and closed below that at 5599. Now if the market closes below 5540 tomorrow then an “evening star ” will be
confirmed on weekly chart. I still recommend to sell NIFTY with the SL of 5700 and targets 5540/5472/5320/5200
NIFTY levels for 15th July:-
R-5630            S-5567
R-5677             S-5539
R-5700             S-5475

R-5749             S-5400

#47 Nifty Update

NIFTY brought smile on the face of investors who had bought shares a day before yesterday.. But am not sure how long this smile will stay on or whether it will stay or not thats a big question. Market is playing in a too volatile time period. One of the major concern is
European Crisis. Many analyst from big research house says that capital restructuring of European countries will bring some weakness in that part of the world. TCS is going to be out with its results and street is expecting 5% growth in revenue and 13% down growth in Profit
as per CNBC tv-18. Technically speaking stock is looking gud and risk taker can buy the stock for a day or 2 with strict SL. NIFTY has just closed over 100 and 200 DEMA (bth at 5582) but technically speaking it will fill up the rest of the gap unitl 5608 and is expected to see
some more bearish move from the market unless some surprise package is announced for the European crisis. Still my strategy on NIFTY would be selling with a SL of 5660 on closing basis and tgts are 5508/5450/5350/5200
NIFTY levels for 14th July:-
R-5545             S-5496
R-5568             S-5472
R-5596             S-5442
R-5615             S-5387

#46 Nifty Update

BOOOMM!!!! Market opened on a gap downside at 5545 on the support of global cues. Today it filled up our one of the previous gap at 5566 but it created a new one at 5580-5604. One of the major reason for slip down was the worry above Italy economy. EU is in a bad shape as country by country are hit a a bad financial crisis. But i dont know why Indian markets are so badly affected by Italian crisis. I just googled that India-Italy foreign trade is just around 2.8% of India’s total. Why there is so much Panic on such cues in domestic region. There were two more events for the day in domestic region. Firstly,Infosys show 5.4% down in profit on QoQ basis but saw a growth of arnd 15% on YoY basis. Infy announced a mixed result as per the expectation of the street. IT sector may face margin pressure ahead as US clients are demanding 15% low cost service. Secondly today Captain of India, Manmohan Singh made changes in his team by bringing in 8 new ministers. Now we have to wait and watch what this new team can do against the big match with high Inflation and raw material cost. Technically speaking market is approaching towards oversold condition. It has breached 100 and 200 DEMA and closed below them and even it has closed below Fibonacci level of 5550. On weekly chart we are witnessing the formation of “Evening star” and it gets validation if market touches 5447 or below levels once this week. I still suggest to Hold Short position on NIFTY until 5450/5340/5200.
NIFTY levels for 13th July:-
R-5545             S-5496
R-5568             S-5472
R-5596             S-5442
R-5615             S-5387

#45 Nifty Update

NIFTY slide’s down the road today to close at 5616. As expected NIFTY catches bearish mood for now. HDFC had announced its quarterly results after markets hours on friday and they were fairly good but slightly below the street expectations. On other hand IndusInd Bank also posted its quarterly results but they were extremely fine. They grew by 52% on YoY which is a positive sign for such small scale banks. On other hand Essar Oil has just posted results after market hours and it is out with a blast….around 400cr profit versus 70cr loss… As i had suggested to buy this stock, Keep a hold on this and you might see gap up opening tomorrow. Hindalco was down by almost 5% today as one of its mine was blocked by govt due to some compliance which hampered companies production. Now technically speaking today market confirmed “dark cloud cover” which was formed on last friday. Market is hovering around the crucial support levels of 100 and 200 DEMA. Tomorrow’s session will be a volatile session on either way but i still recommend to sell NIFTY with the Target of 5576/5508/5450/5340/5200
NIFTY levels for 12th July:-
R-5644             S-5580
R-5700             S-5563
R-5748             S-5546
R-5800             S-5476

#14 Stock Update: Weekly Picks 11th July to 15th July

Bharat Forg
A Dragon fly Doji on Daily chart closed over 200DEMA with the support of RSI and stochastic. I recommend to buy with a strict SL.
A dragon fly doji closed over all the short term moving averages with the support of all indicators.

A close over 200 DEMA on daily chart was supported by bullish crossover of stochastics and RSI. Weekly chart has witnessed a dragon fly Doji.
Essar Oil
A strong bullish candle closed above 200 DEMA with a support taken at 100 DEMA. Weekly chart has also witnessed a close over 200 WEMA.
A close over 100 DEMA with the support of bullish crossover of RSI. Weekly chat has witnessed close over all short term moving averages.
Syndicate Bank

A close over all the short term moving averages was supported by bullish crossover of the RSI. Weekly has also seen a  close over all the moving averages.
A dragon fly doji on daily and weekly chart seems short term bullish. So this stock is recommended only to HIGH RISK CLIENT.