Monthly Archives: August 2011

#84 Nifty Update

Double scoop Icing!!!! NIFTY gave a consecutive mega close of 81 points up to 5001. Initially market opened gap up to 4990 and then we saw some pressure ahead of GDP numbers. GDP number came at 7.7% vs 9.3% same quarter a year before but it was just above expectation of 7.6% by CNBC. Manufacturing and Mining were the beating sector while agriculture and Service Industry backed them a little. People took GDP numbers positively and expect them to be better in next quarter with better economy condition over the world. Yesterday RBI announced guidelines for new private sector banks. Many points in the draft was that only NBFC and Private sector Institute can get license, Should not have more than 10% exposure to real estate and broking, minimum capital of rs500 crore and Foreign stake restricted to 49%. Still these norms are open for suggestion. RBI also tightened the existing norms of NBFC’s. It also advice state run banks to restructure loans of MSME which will be a hole in profit for such banks as loan holders are beneficiary. Maruti is again in news for same reason of strike. Workers have gone on strike as company as them to sign discipline bond. This will hamper the production of newly launched maruti swift production. India is going to sit next with EU at Brussels to modify foreign trade treat. EU is the biggest partner for trade but still we have failed to come to a decision since last 4 meets. Hope its solved this time or else we need Anna Hazare again ;). Food Subsidy is to raise to 1 trillion rupees..Ghosh!! Government is taking this step just to avoid bad stock…why dont they open exports limits rather than free distribution unnecessarily??? Coming to Europe, 2 banks of Greece have merged which is a crucial step to fight against crisis. Hope this wil bring some stability in the economy. Another Europe country, germany says that they are short of engineers as stated by Porsche and BMW. they are planning to hire in all around 70000 engineers. So all my engineer friends learn german and prepare for germany. On commodity side gold has witnessed a profit booking and people are investing in risk assets like oil on expectations of world recovery. Technically speaking market gave a blasting close of mental level of 5000. It closed above 7 and 14 EMA. MACD, Stochastic and RSI have confirmed Bullish crossover. NIFTY took support around 4935 (4927) as i stated and i wish you all got 5000 call, if not get it on friday on dips as Market is closed for 2 days.      
NIFTY levels for 2cd September:-
R-5050                  S-4965
R-5096                  S-4935
R-5127                  S-4882
R-5233                  S-4832

#83 Nifty Update

WHERE’s the PARTY Tonight???? NIFTY boomed like a F1 Mcleran at 171 points to close at 4919. QE 3 was not declared by Bernake on Friday which was positively taken by all the markets over the world and which was one of the driving factors to nifty’s dashing mood today. Anna hazare’s partial victory over parliament was also a reason for NIFTY to have a big smile. This financial year has witnessed high inflation throughout and retail sector is most affected. Indian commerce ministry has witnessed a decline in demand for Indian goods so they are looking forward to tie up more bilateral trade contracts with Latin America countries such as Costa rica and 6 more countries. Retail sector companies such as Pantaloon and Shopper Stops are going through margin pressure because due to Inflation property rentals have gone up and have seen decline in sales as middle class is the most affected with inflation. So short term investors with horizon of 3-5 months avoid retail stocks. But retail traveling agency’s have seen a good growth. Online travel queries have increased by 59% and Mobile Traveling queries by 250% in last one year as reported by Google India. Many online travel agents have also started offline channel sales. Therefore we can see a good growth in traveling segment in next decade because India is growing tremendously with internet user’s number and we will surely see exponential growth in Online travels. One of the U-Turn to 2G case was for UNITECH and RCOM today. CBI clearly gives a clean chit to UNITECH stating that they didn’t found any money trail while RCOM 3 officials are said to have been clear in the case. Now you may see a upside rally in both the stock and i recommend to buy them with 52 week low as a SL. Coming to NIFTY technical , today’s rally gave a strong close above 200 Weekly level which it breached last week. Daily RSI and Stochastic have given a confirmed bullish crossover while MACD is yet to confirm. Now we can surely wait for that unfilled gap at 5230 level. Hope you all holding 5300 CE…And risk take tomorrow can buy 5000CE of October expiry..but keep a Stop loss of 4790 of NIFTY cash
NIFTY levels for 30th August:-
R-4961                  S-4878
R-4983                  S-4825
R-5020                  S-4808
R-5080                  S-4790

#82 Nifty Update

Phewwww!!!! Bored and fed up with market. Market opened flat and then showed some bull power but couldnt withstand much and then fell like a loose motion which cannot be stopped even if u want to. NIFTY closed at 4747 down 91 points. Biggest blow to US corporate was resigning of Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple. Tim cook will take over position but steve mentioned that he will be still available for creativity for the company so thats a relief for Apple lovers. Today we have FED meeting around 7:30 pm and if bernake announces some stimulus for the economy then u may see markets rallying high and downside in gold prices. Day before yesterday, Worlds best trader, Warren Buffet purchased stake in Bank of America for around $3.5billion which in a day rose to $5billion as investors took it positively. This is a good deal as warren will get preferential dividend at 6%. US jobless data were out yesterday which claimed more unemployment which suggest weak job security in US. Coming to India and Anna Hazare, government late eve yesterday had decided to discuss jan lok pal bill in parliament and they did today but no significant outcome till right now. Coal india is going to replace Reliance capital in NIFTY 50 Stocks from October. This came as a blow to ADAG group. Whereas ONGC and RIL are fighting for the place of largest company by market cap in NIFTY. Talking about auto segment we have seen a rally in almost all including Heromotocorp, bajaj-auto , M&M but TATA Motors is been beaten up. Morgan Stanley has downgraded tata motors even at CMP so avoid position in this stock. One more mega deal is gonna be sign between GVK and Hancock Australia for purchasing 2 australian mines for USD 2.2 Billion which is gonna be funded by Standard chartered, ICICI and Axis. Technically speaking NIFTY is digging deep in oversold zone. NIFTY for the first time closed below 200 Weekly average since 2009 which can be a bearish sign. NIFTY long stop loss has been triggered but hold 5300 CE as you never know what will Bernake produce tonight. 
NIFTY levels for 29th August:-
R-4796                  S-4722
R-4830                  S-4682
R-4882                  S-4639
R-4936                  S-4600

#81 Nifty Update

GOLMAAL 4 has been released but this time director is not Rohit Shetty but its SEBI and FII and star cast is BSE and NIFTY. Indian market are trading opposite to global trend. All the global markets are recovering their losses which they made since 20th July but we are deepening our losses. NIFTY opened positive but then showed some downside to close 49 points down to 4839. Now people in US and Europe are confident enough of their stock markets. This could be noticed because since last 2 trading session equity markets have rallied 5% while gold have lost $200 from its life time high on tuesday. Gold has seen heavy profit booking in physical market as well as trading platform. COMEX has increased gold margins to around 27% which is one of the reason of correction in gold prices. Crude price is expected to have a stability as Libya problem is solved and its expected to produce 300000 barrels /day by this year end. Banking stocks have seen a downfall in US but durable goods market has seen boost in demand which has brought back confidence amongst investors and they are re-positioning themselves in stock markets. NIFTY had its expiry today and it was expected that it will have a short covering with the support of global cues but NIFTY is odd one out and it declined. Coal India had received environmental ban at its 22 mines in Jharkhand yesterday but they claim they havent received any letter till date and have continued their production at the mines. One of the burning issue in indian corporate world right now is banking license. PFC and REC is also planning to enter banking sector. Analyst have raised the question that can this 2 or companies like SREI are eligible for license? All this small companies are not even performing their existing business properly. Coming to IDR’s…(indian depository receipts) They have not been able to attract foreign corporates because there doesnt exist two way fungiblity option. Only Standard Chartered had issued IDR last year but that too is trading 42% down from Issue price. SEBI and IRDA are planning to revise norms to attract more foreign entities. On other hand Foreign loans are getting cheaper for indian corporates but due to shortage of dollars in market it has been difficult at present to raise foreign funds. One more interesting news were about DCHL (deccan chronicle) who completed buyback of shares yesterday and it was biggest ever in Indian Stock market history. Technically speaking all the NIFTY indicators are hovering just above oversold zone. I am feeling that market is consolidating at current levels. No major pattern has been seen in recent sessions. I still feel that gap at 5300 will be soon filled so i stick to my strategy of holding NIFTY with SL of 4780.
NIFTY levels for 26th August:-
R-4862                  S-4810
R-4890                  S-4770
R-4935                  S-4750
R-4976                  S-4700

#80 Nifty Update

SHOCKER!!!! During rains when you slip on floor all of a sudden due to wet floor same was with NIFTY, as sentiments are bearish but global markets were positive last night and so we thought NIFTY would be controlled by bull which didnt happen. NIFTY closed at 4889 down by 60 points. US is still recovering on people’s belief that Bernake will publish out some good policy on economist meet on 26th of August and Europe is too choppy as its still fighting its wounds over greece debt crisis. Japan Debt is downgraded to AA3 by Moody as they worry on economy recovery. Later this week RBI is going to announce norms for new private sectors banks to operate in India but they were still cautious and have asked government to change some norms in Banking Act as there are many loopholes and they fear that this companies will use funds in self dealing with their group companies. SREI Infra, Reliagre, Reliance Capital , TATA Capital are few from the list who might get license for the Banking operations. Today COAL india was in news as they have been accused of violation of mining in 21 ores but the official from company  claimed on CNBC that production on Mining havent closed annywhere. IF they are proved to be accused then it may be a major setback for Coal India’s future and credit worth as they had overtook Reliance as highest Market Cap in Stock market on 17th August. Coal India wagers have demanded 100% wage hike which might erode companies complete net profit for next quarter. TATA steel has withdrawn themselves form Consortium led by SAIL to bid for 1.8 MT iron ore in Afghanistan but they might rethink on its decision as said by officials. GVK is planning to raise its stake in Banglore and Mumbai international airports which analyst says is a good decision for the company. Techincally speaking market is in a biased modd and could move either way. tomorrow being expiry we might see some short covering at the end of the day. I still recommend to hold NIFTY with SL of 4750.
NIFTY levels for 25th August:-
R-4905                  S-4842
R-4932                  S-4807
R-4975                  S-4750
R-5015                  S-4700

#79 Nifty Update

Celebrations are still on for Janmasthami in Gujarat as well as on stock market though we had a painful 4-0 whitewash in England. Just a suggestion to BCCI that Indian cricket team should be sent to Ramlila Maidan and made to do fast with ANNA hazare… x-(. Anyways coming back to NIFTY , it opened up at 4927 but initially fooled people by slipping down to 4860. NIFTY closed at 4948 up 50 points. But technically speaking market was not fooling as it came down to fill up the gap on 15mins chart and then bounced back non-stop to 4960 filling up the gap completely at 4935. US and Europe markets had seen some recovery. Libya civil problem has been solved and oil production will resume in 2-3 months which is a great relief for many countries over the world who were dependent on that place. Short term investors with a holding period of 1-3 months enter Sugar stocks.. September-November is sugarcane harvesting season and better monsoon is expected this year which will have better yield of sugarcanes which is a major raw material for the production of sugar. Brazil which is the largest producer of Sugar has said that due to unavoidable weather production of sugar will be down by 6% YoY. This means globally price of sugar will rise but domestic we have enough excess supply so india will have low prices in local but companies get more margins on export as limits have also been increased. So enter stocks are Renuka, Balramchin and bajaj hind till next quarter. Avoid Paint stocks such as Asian Paints as they have a slack season during monsoon because construction is on hold. You might see spark in demand of paints may be in third quarter. IT stocks has seen a quiet a bit rally today but still i feel its trapping long term investors. Unless and until US economy doesnt stable IT will nt have a honeymoon period. Technically speaking market has confirmed the Doji created before 2 trading sessions. RSI and Stochastics are have just moved out of oversold zone and is confirming short term recovery. MACD is about to give confirmation if the market stays positive for next 2 trading sessions. Being expiry we might see some recovery in market upto 5100 levels. But i still recommend to hold NIFTY future with SL of 4750.
NIFTY levels for 24th August:-
R-5015                  S-4895
R-5050                  S-4842
R-5082                  S-4807
R-5132                  S-4750

#78 Nifty Update

Happy Janmashtami!!!!! Finally NIFTY has given a sign of reversal on the birthday of Lord Krishna. NIFTY opened flat at 4853 on mixed global cues and then with had some range bound market in the morning but then with weak europe opening we saw low at around 4815 levels. But foreign markets recovered after the early trade and NIFTY got a little spark which it was waiting for last few trading session to recover almost 100 points from the low to close at 4898 up by 53 points… Most of you might be gambling in teen patti but i bet if u had gamble on stocks today you would have earned more 😉 :P. Experts says that recession is almost confirmed in US and Europe but you may not see sudden downfall rather new lows each day. The root cause of current market situation is GREECE. People close to European Union says that greece was fudged in the Union. At the time of Joining fiscal deficit of greece was more than 3% of GDP which is a violation of a rule to be EU member but still Greece was considered as people thought that Greece would excel. Debt to GDP ratio stands at 140% at present and its expected to reach 160% by 2012 in greece which is considered to be too high. Only reason for greece to save themselves is to grow at 7% by 2012 which is next to impossible with current growth at just 3.5%. Why the hell was greece taken into the Union??? Talking about the US economy they have seen a projected high growths than they can actually get and have printed dollars as and when they want which has resulted in deflation. Talking about india, current valuation of stocks are attractive and one should start shopping. Most attractive valuation as per me are of Steel stocks… Now you would ask y??? An article mentioned that from 2005-2010 China increased its steel producing capacity from 330 MT to 640 MT while India just moved from 45MT to 66MT and our imports have also increased from 7MT to 11 MT. From above sentence we can Interpret that Steel demand is more then supply in India so steel company will have advantage over production and you must buy stocks like TATA STEEL, JSWSTEEL and Hindalco at CMP. Second best sector is Power sector. NTPC and Power grid have agreed and have entered in JV with Sri Lankan Companies respectively to supply 2500 MW with 1800MW by NTPC. So we can expect them to flourish in next 5 years. But i really doubt that in India we have power shortage bt why this State Owned companies are supplying power outside?? Really after reading this situation i Support ANNA Hazare.  Techincally speaking NIFTY has confirmed the 2cd Consecutive close above 4832. RSI and Stochastic have given Bullish crossover but yet in oversold zone but we have seen a bullish piercing pattern on daily chart and tweezer bottom start to this week which is a reversal sign. Hope you all have squared of your shorts on NIFTY and have bought NIFTY with tgt of 5300. Multi Bagger buy with Minimum risk is to buy 5300CE Sept Expiry at CMP of Rs.25  
NIFTY levels for 23rd August:-
R-4935                  S-4832
R-4975                  S-4800
R-5025                  S-4788
R-5056                  S-4750

#77 Nifty Update

NIFTY is also fasting and supporting ANNA HAZARE movement with downside by almost 100 points at 4845. Dabbawala’s from mumbai for the first time ever since 120 years had closed down there service in the support of ANNA Hazare. Strong bearish sentiments are prevailing all over the world. Yesterday US jobless data were announced which were far below then expectations which led US with downside opening at 5% and Europe to close down by 4%. Today NIFTY also opened gap down on global recession weakness fear. Food inflation was at 9% and fuel inflation at 13% which was announced yesterday and FM says it is not the level the expected. He is expecting food inflation to ease after better monsoon. CNBC flashed that it expect RBI to incerease 25 bps next month to curb inflation but i feel RBI will stop rate hike as they had raised double then expected last time and inflation has ease a lil bit this month. SAIL in consortium with TATASTEEL, NMDC, JSWSteel and Jindal steel are applying for the bid of Iron ore in Afghanistan with iron ore content of 1.8 million tonne. China is the major competitor in this bid and Indian government wants to win over them to avoid competition in future. Official says this will be a good move to fill up the iron ore deficit of indian Demand. Coal India is also a fundamentally good company to invest as out of 418 MT demand of coal per year in India. 320 MT is provided by Coal India alone. So as i mentioned yesterday NTPC along with Coal India and SAIL are the PSU stocks to look at current levels for portfolio picks. Technically speaking today achieved my target of 4800. Market had took a great support at 4832 which was 200 Weekly average..It had slipped below that level but close above in the end. I just compared the downfall of 2008 and 2011. I marked that there were no gap down openings in 2008 while now we have 2 gaps at 4898 and 5230 which are unfilled. As we have noticed that gaps are strong significant indicators i feel we might see some short term recovery if the market stays above 4800 next week. If NIFTY breaks 4800 on closing basis then 3rd possibility on my elliot wave graph as stated on 7th August post, we may see 4300 levels. So i would suggest to book 75% profit on Short NIFTY and start buying 20% of your long term porfolio.
NIFTY levels for 22cd August:-
R-4895                  S-4832
R-4935                  S-4800
R-4975                  S-4788
R-5025                  S-4750

#76 Nifty Update

Clean Bowled!!!! Bulls were out in the first ball and bears took control over them in today’s match. Bears had the winning edge since market opened the batting with 5053 on the score card which was todays high. It made new lows each hour and closed at 4944 down by 112 points. Market is getting more and more difficult for investors. Now a days even FII has introduced one more checklist before investing in stock i.e., political link of the company and its operations. Many research house has came out with political indicators to show up how strong is the relation of company with the politics. Those were the days when politically attached stocks were given preference  for high profitability. Today Banking stocks were beaten first on fears of rate hike and then others followed. NTPC gave its sole order to BHEL till now but now have thought of giving its next five year plan orders to even private companies. orders are worth Rs.2 Trillion which will bring up momentum in production of power utility equipments. CCI has cleared RIL-BP deal and has given the clean chit to Jet -Kingfisher deal which was formed in 2008. Maruti has launched its new swift and have received pre launch booking of 50000 cars which is a positive boost. European markets have seen a bearish mood on the weak economy. Jet Airways are shifting totally to low fare model specially in domestic routes to attract mass in such weak economy conditions. Techincally speaking market is trading at 52 week. As expected market has breached 5000 level mark and we expect it to support at 4800 level which i think will be best time to start shopping. Hold yours shorts on NIFTY with tgt of 4788.
NIFTY levels for 19th August:-
R-4986                  S-4925
R-5017                  S-4886
R-5036                  S-4800
R-5056                  S-4788

#75 Nifty Update

Hey Guys just found a interesting pattern on Weekly chart of NIFTY. On 7th August I did plot a Long term Elliot wave. Now I have witnessed a smaller degree of Elliot wave property in Wave 2 as you can see in the pic. This means that NIFTY may take supports around 4800 then start shopping for long term as this will be the end of wave 2 with also is a end of extension of wave 2. Keep above mentioned levels in mind.. It might help you all for trading