Monthly Archives: August 2011

#64 Nifty Update

:o :o…Shocked or cant believe??? that was the expression of many investors when they switched on TV while they were brushing because they saw SGX NIFTY trading 80 points down below 5400 at 8am. NIFTY opened at 5402 at pre-open on weak global cues and close at 5404.80 down 51 points from previous close. US debt ceiling bill was signed by Obama yesterday but he mentioned that ” i am signing the bill but am unhappy with deal” and fear that US debt market might be downgraded on Rating made investor bearish and saw US markets down by 2%. Ripple effect of last night session came on Asian markets too. We might see further downfall in foreign market as said by many analyst but they are underweight on Indian markets. They expect that Emerging markets such as Indian and China too be attractive and will see fresh buying before the Developed markets. Many queries were spurting at me regarding investment in NBFC’s and Banking stock but i suggest to wait. At presently banking stock are facing NPA problems. NPA has risen by 5 times on YoY basis as per a report in a newspaper while advances has declined in almost all sector except petroleum and housing loans. So earnings of Banks will be hurt this quarter but on the other side monsoon is expected to be fairly good all over the world and its expected that commodities price is to ease which will ease inflation which will results to end of monetary tightening by RBI. So i would suggest to avoid fresh buying in Financial Sector..rather go for COAL INDIA , ITC , TITAN , ONGC or SUNPHARMA in present situation. Technically speaking market has created a new gap down around 5435 on opening and again has shown indecisiveness between bulls and bears with creation of  “DOJI” today. MACD and RSI has given a clear sell signal but stochastic shows some upward move. A “top rounding” pattern has been seen in NIFTY which will be completed at 5240 levels. I suggests selling NIFTY on rise with tgts 5340/5280/5240/5200 sl 5586
.NIFTY levels for 4th August:-
R-5418             S-5380
R-5435             S-5356
R-5472             S-5320
R-5516             S-5280

#63 Nifty Update

Ssssshhh!!!!! Markets brought silence amongst the trading room… NIFTY opened in red and closed at 5456 down 60 points after making low around 5433. Global cues are indecisive which is making market range bound. US debt ceiling has been raised but still many experts raise question that is this the end of recession??? It is difficult to come to the decision that market could rally from here. Europe crisis are still on edge as Greece are asking for more money. Someone has rightly said in last Forbes India  issue that all such countries have been addicted to demanding liquidity. More and more liquidity bail out you provide more and more lethargic they will become in making some strict change in their management which could improve the future of organization/country. Domestically most talked is Mining scam at present which is affecting steel companies. Now many other state are also going to inquire same issue with the mines within the region..Is this going to bring out more companies in this scam????? All the results of last quarter are just average or below average not making any investor smile. But e-commerce is the most growing stage of the sector. A research says retail industry is 500000 crore market while only 15000 crore of it is e-commerce so wide scope in such sector. Technically speaking daily chart has witnessed a “evening star” pattern which is a bearish pattern. MACD and RSI has given bearish crossover. Today NIFTY  achieved both my targets 5472 and 5442.. Nxt targets are 5380 and 5340.
NIFTY levels for 3rd August:-
R-5472             S-5440
R-5516             S-5380
R-5544             S-5340
R-5586             S-5320

#62 Nifty Update

That was nice opening by Duo i.e., NIFTY ans Sensex to new month of August. NIFTY gap up on account of Positive news from US and closed 34 points up at 5516. Yesterday night bill of increasing debt ceiling in US was passed by both the house. This was the driving factor for todays positive markets globally. Now 2cd August is the deciding day for the US treasury department but i feel good news are already discounted so might not see a boosting rally but if the treasury department declares Default then u may surely see bears running in the markets badly but chance of that are very much less. Indian economy is disturbed on the Illegal mining in karnataka. On saturday karnataka CM resigned due to this scam on papers. Adani Enterprise covered back almost 7% today as company announced some disclousre stating less operations at mines in Karnataka and as we all know Adani owns mines in Australia so its production won’t be hampered. On the other hand Telecom sector scripts are seeing new highs on the raise of tariffs but selected companies in some circles. Every month we have some or other scam coming out in India…Till what time will this continue??? Scams are hampering corporate growth…Arent they?? Technically speaking market has closed below all the moving averages and RSI and stochastic has shown some chance of covering while MACD is yet flat
over central line. A third consecutive Doji has been formed on NIFTY chart which is sign of indecisiveness for the markets between Bulls and Bears. So i suggest yet to be cautious on fresh longs until tomorrow.
NIFTY levels for 2cd August:-
R-5544             S-5508
R-5567             S-5472
R-5586             S-5442
R-5616             S-5406