Monthly Archives: February 2012

#111 Nifty Update: "Diarrhea" to NIFTY……

“Ohhhhhhhh……………….” No1 can control that motion ever!!! NIFTY was trading well around 5600 until it broke 5586 which i mentioned as a crucial level and than we directly saw 5490 odd level. i had been craving and shouting that Short nifty on each rise as 5640-5660 was strong resistance and i hope you all got benefit of the same.NIFTY has given a non-stop rally of 1200 points and we were expecting a correction soon. Indicators were already showing overbought condition but today for the first time candlestick has given some bearish sign. As you could notice we have witnessed a “Bearish Engulfing pattern” on NIFTY daily chart today which is a strong reversal sign for the trend. All the frontline stocks drizzled like one is having diarrhea…. None of the stock were breaking during the downfall. Tomorrow being expiry we may still see a volatile session. Tomorrow’s opening trade is gonna be a important one. But overall am bearish on NIFTY..NIFTY has strong support levels of 5424,5372,5335,5220,5095. On the upper side still 5660 is strong resistance level but i suggest to hold your shorts with stop loss of 5660.. Dont get into longs until some better confirmation.

#110 Nifty Update: Did you miss the flight to 5500?? Dont panic take the next Flight

“oh fuck, how can i miss the flight?? How can i sleep at the airport“!!! That was the situation of the retail clients in the last rally. You all knew that 4500 odd levels was important level and i had recommend to buy 50% of long term investment but still you all were sleeping and missed the flight of NIFTY. Anyways if u missed the flight than you have to pay higher price for next flight or if u are lucky enough you may get the tickets at best deal so is the case in NIFTY this time. NIFTY has given various breakouts in last 2 months. This Tuesday we saw breakout of consolidation rectangular pattern at 5440 and markets touched 5536. But dont worry guys you can still buy but wait for the right time. 5536 is the strong resistance and if it breakouts out go long with stop loss of 5490 or if you are lucky enough you may see correction upto 5280 which could be a best deal to get into flight of nifty tough expensive than 4600 but you have to travel. Technically all the indicators are in overbought zone and we expect a correction any time soon. We saw today that reliance and many frontline scripts have showed some signs of profit booking but banking stocks lead the rally today. A bearish harami pattern has been witnessed on the charts and if the open is below 5510 tomorrow and closes below the same level than we can confirm the reversal on the candlestick. Talking abt the inflation numbers, they cooled off but it was because of the high base rate of last year and still we cannot see any improvements of company results. This rally was purely because valuations were attractive but we cannot sustain at this level without any strong fundamentals. But many analyst are in belief that this rally may sustain upto budget and we may see 5800 levels. They may be right!! So our strategy would be go long if NIFTY closes or crosses above 5536 or else wait for 5440 or 5280 level to get in.. Wait for my next post!!! Till than bye bye.

#109 Nifty Update: "That's all Folks" says HINDALCO Chart

Hindalco has been in upward move even though it was downgraded by many brokerage houses. Hindalco gave almost 40 % return from its low in december. Now its turn for some brakes. Today in the opening, price gave confirmation to the formation of “evening star” on the chart. It is the sign of bearish reversal. Even the indicators such as RSI and Stochastic are in overbought zone. Even the stock has closed below all the short term moving averages and its near the 200 DEMA. If it gives a closing below 200 DEMA than expect a more downside upto 133. I had recommend selling the stock future during markets hours near to 156. Keep a stop loss at 162 with near tgt of 147/142. 

#108 Nifty Update: "Agneepath":- NIFTY broke the Downside Channel!!!!!!!

On the AGNEEPATH battle between bears and bulls in Mumbai (Dalal Street), Bulls won!!!! Bears(Kancha) tried to overcome bulls by supplying cocaine at low cost (gaps on the lower levels in case of NIFTY) but remember “good always wins over bad” :D. NIFTY had been in downside channel since the high of 6338 in Nov 2010 but that has been given a breakout close last week as you can notice on the weekly chart. NIFTY has bottomed out near to 4650. As i said there are some bearish element left behind in last rally say 4 gaps etc but right now bulls are in no mood to give any chance to bears to overcome them. Technically markets has entered the overbought zone and expectation may be expected anytime. But Simply saying we may see market resisting near to 5450 and 5660 over that. On the downside now we can have support at the previous resistance line i.e., 5260. You may question that what abt 4200 that analyst were talking?? THAT isnt IMPOSSIBLE but we need some solid reason from global markets- Its just same as India beating Australia with 9 wickets in Australia. Not impossible but we need some good play. Banking Sector is in some pressure so be cautious on that as it has already rallied. Watch out for stocks which has rallied lyk OIL, ONGC, GAIL, NMDC etc. FII has pumped in around $2billion in Jan which is a record investment in one month. We are even expecting a solution from Europe crisis. So all together we are having a positive momentum this time around.So right now stay long with stop loss of 5260 on weekly closing basis.