Monthly Archives: April 2012

#24 Stock Update: Private Sector banks are at attractive valuations- ICICI Bank

ICICI bank has posted gud quartely numbers last week. Even technically also it has given the breakout of resistance line at 881 today at 9:53:00 am. As you could notice in the chart that line was tested almost 5 times so the resistance was strong which has been broken. Indicators on Daily chart are also suggesting to be biased on bull side. Stock is trading over all the moving averages which is a good support sign. We can go long on ICICI bank with stop loss of 840 but square off your positions today itself if it trades below 870. Upside tgt can be 913/980

#23 Stock Update: Accumulate Biocon Pharma for Long term

Biocon Pharma weekly chart has been showing some support at 225 odd levels since 5 weeks. Weekly chart shows that last rally had start from Rs.90 to Rs.450 odd levels. Calculating the 61.8% retrenchment of the last rally we get 228 which has been the supporting level for the stock since last 1 month. Studying the indicators it has been observed that a buy signal has already been triggered. We could even since the bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly chart which occurred last friday. We could even notice that stock has been moving in the downward channel and after taking support of downline its time for upward line so its a buy too. Strategy: Buy/Accumulate Biocon with tgts of 280/300 and long term tgt 450. Stopl loss: 215

#118 Nifty Update: NIFTY on the Verge after Positive Breakout!!!

In my last post i mentioned that we were in consolidation phase and we expect a breakout very soon!!! Breakout has been confirmed last week and it was strictly to the principles of “Descending triangle”. Technically speaking, we saw a breakout on Wednesday on the upside from the triangle and for confirmation we got three consecutive close exactly above the trendline. Now resistance line has changed his role to support line as you could notice in the chart. Top first circle shows that NIFTY has been closing above trendline and short term moving averages for three consecutive days. Second circle , as i mentioned in last post, is a possible crossover of 100 SMA (red) over 200 SMA (white) after almost 2.5 yrs. So, NIFTY is on verge because traditional rules i.e., triangle breakout and moving crossover are almost signalling long term bullish while indicators have yet not confirmed the bull trend. What to do than?? Strategy as per my knowledge is starting buying longer term investment stocks and add on each dip upto 5200.Keep a stop loss of 5117 if the market goes worst. 1st Target on the upside is 5600 and second 6300 as per the breakout and triangle formula. A lot is based on monday opening. We are expecting a positive opening on Monday as Reliance industries posted results better than expected and some parts was in-line. So go long on NIFTY. Instruments to look for long term are Pharma sector and NIFTYBEES. Anyways will post you guys as soon as we get some more confirmation on the bull side.

#117 Nifty Update: Housefull 3 running successful over INDIA

Confused reading the Headline??? Hahaha… This time its not the Bollywood movie but its the NIFTY chart.  Reason for my name “Housefull” today was as you can notice in the chart the consolidation on NIFTY in the triangle is coming almost to the apex. This calls for a breakout on either side. For the people who arent aware, triangle is a consolidation pattern meaning trend haults on the move and continues the previous move. Our previous move in this case is bullish and as by rule we should witness bull run further. But all the rules are with exception or you can say with a risk. Triangle sometimes gives a reversal sign. Today D subbarao gave 50bps cut but still NIFTY couldnt cut through the triangle on either side. Global markets are mixed with cues on both side so fundamentally we are not able to decided the further move. Technically speaking we have chances of upside breakout at the moment. The indicators which i study have turned their hands towards bulls today. 100 SMA (red line) is approaching 200 SMA (White line) to crossover which is a sight unseen for last 2 years which is a strong bullish sign. Tomorrows session would be the crucial one technically. Our strategy would be to close ur shorts at 5320 on NIFTY which is a breakout point but only go long on confirmation level which is 5350 i.e., a rectangular breakout within the triangle. But look out for the close tomorrow. If the close is below 5300 than gates could open for downside. Add more shorts only below 5170. CAUTION for SAFE TRADERS: This time on markets is too volatile and indecisive so think twice before taking any position or wait for confirmation level. Indian markets always gives second opportunity so never feel left out. Ciao!!!!!! 

#116 Nifty Update" "Friday the 13th" for investors

It was nightmare for all the traders today on the Floor. Indeed it was the Black friday or you may say it proved to be unlucky 13th the Friday. Morning was greeted with below expectations INFY result and worst guidance by the company. Global markets were fairly strong almost 1% while SGX NIFTY was trading near to 5335. Pre-Open clearly suggested that we may see some pressure in the market due to INFY result but global market support would lead the market in positive zone. We saw the same thing happening, after being in negative zone, after 9.30 we saw market again in bullish mode. But as i had mentioned on my twitter @niftybykush 5305 was important resistance and so did NIFTY resisted near to 5306. At that moment investors thought that we were safe from unlucky “13th Friday” and than in just few seconds we saw heavy selling and NIFTY drifted to 5185 from high of 5306 in just 5 mins!!!! OH WHAT THE FUCK?? …….Even i dont know what was the case..But i feel it was the late effect of two major fundamental problem 1) Weak Infy result and 2) Revision of IIP numbers for Jan….How can a government make such a blunder?? FII were investing as they were positive on IIP numbers but that proved false numbers and may be we saw selling on that part today. Technically speaking , as u all can notice on the chart we are trading through a “descending triangle” which is a consolidation pattern and which means prior trend i.e., bull in our case will be back in action on breakout. But the indicator suggests that triangle may prove to be a reversal pattern which is rare but it can be true. If we see 5169 being broken than we can get 4663 on NIFTY. While on positive note we can see 100 may cross over 200 SMA which will be long term bullish and triangle will be given upside breakout at 5330. But taking support of indicators, i would suggest still hold your SHorts which i had recommended with stop loss of 5330. Add more shorts below 5146 and be long above 5360. Till than see ya!!!!!

#115 Nifty Update: How long can it be a "NAAR" Effect???

You might be laughing reading the heading that its GAAR and not NAAR. By NAAR i mean “NIFTY Accepted- Avoidance Rule”. This is to say because since the GAAR has been implemented, it was expected that market will see some sell-off but instead we have seen a rally of almost 5% on the index. This explain that NIFTY investors has accepted GAAR and have discounted the new well before. I do agree with it but you may find something interesting on the chart. Notice the downside channel. Today nifty has topped exactly at the resistance line and have closed with a Perfect Doji indicating that we may see some downside, if NIFTY cannot close above 5380 for nxt 3 sessions. This month is full of fundamental news with RBI policy on 14th, Parliamentary session on 23rd and Earning announcement. Technically Speaking we have seen a strong bounce back from 200 SMA (white line) on NIFTY. But you could notice that last rally has added 2 more gaps suggesting that NIFTY has to come back to that level if not in near term than may be some time in future. We could notice that short term moving averages (blue,green and Yellow) are near to 5285 which is also a important support level. NIFTY has rallied but none of the indicator which i study has confirmed the bull rally yet. Watching the events to follow this month it is expected that we may see a strong rally on either side from current levels. Strategy as per the chart would be going short at Current levels with a stop loss of 5420 on closing basis with tgts of 5285/5140/5050 4950-5050 is an important level to see because its the point where two lines of different valid channels are converging. And if the stop loss hits than you may go long above 5490 (closing basis).