Monthly Archives: July 2012

‎#129 Nifty Update: "Zara Zara Touch me touch me touch me"

No guys am nt dreaming of Katrina Kaif touching me (as m engaged now :P) but its just that song relates to NIFTY’s trading range since last 2 weeks. As you could notice in the chart, closing has been volatile between bulls and bears…Bulls(Blue moving averages) and bears (downside channel support) are playing tug-of-war but NIFTY is nt able to decide is partner and its just “touching” the either range and bouncing back to other partner. You could be more bias towards bears as you can notice that downside channel has been broken almost 4 times which gives a hint. But “Bhav bhagwan che” so nothing is 100% sure. We have got 4 consecutive close below my “TRIMURTI” (50-100-200EMA) which is a sign of more downside. Talked too much about the bear side, for bull side all the indicators are in oversold zone which means chances are that we may see short covering but that may be maximum upto 5125-5200. Taking in consideration Weekly and Monthly timeline we are still negative on indicators. So every opportunity is to go short with stop los 5300. My call to go short is still intact.

Add Shorts below 5070 to call initiate at 5145 or Fresh shorts at 5200 if we see upside with sl of 5260
Book partial profit at 4980 on downside.

#128 Nifty Update: NIFTY less volatile in performance than Indian Cricket team.

“BULL Shit”…”F*** off”….Blah Blah is what you couldnt have controlled after watching india’s performance at the 2cd ODI vs Sri Lanka. India’s batting performance range was vast from 314-138 so is NIFTY’s range from 4903-5317. On last friday i did recommend to Sell Below 5145 and we almost got 45 points on board in 2 days. Nothing has changed fundamentally except that pranab mukherjee is our new president. Anna Team is opposing but i dont think it will have much affect on the decision. Market reacted negatively on monday opening to RIL’s weak performance. But technically i have found a “acute triangle” on monthly chart which is a sign of consolidation. If you have been trading actively in market , you might have been bored of hearing from operators that NIFTY’s range is getting narrower that is what actually a acute triangle/symmetric triangle is in technically terms. You could notice in the adjoining graph what exactly triangle looks like.. Whats the implications??? It means when the triangle breaks on the either side on closing basis, it defines the trend of market. Right now, taking broader picture, we are in consolidation phase or say in-decisive phase on monthly chart. July’s breakout range is 4905-5317 while august range is 4952-5265. So long term traders wait for the breakout of either level. Just for an we have closed with a Doji and market has taken support around 5103 on last 2 days which is a 200 SMA. So if we see markets opening above 5130 and closing above that level tomorrow then we may see short term recovery but blindly go short below 5102. This thursday being expiry be cautious in trading…Cya guys…

#127 Nifty Update: Even NIFTY got a new "Narrow Fit Channel" from the "Candles Mall"

I am pretty sure that you guys would have got atleast one Narrow Fit jeans from a Levis store on its on going 40% flat discount so does have NIFTY but it got from a Japanese Candle mall… As you guys can notice in the chart above NIFTY gave a breakout to the existing channel which i mentioned in my post last week. The new channel last week has been a Narrow one which means a volatile sessions ahead but within a specified range until it breaks out. Last post i mentioned that it was cocktail on NIFTY chart with bears and bulls with eqial chances but i guess now bears have more chance of winning the game. RIL posted its numbers last eve after the market hours which beats streets poll/estimates but comparing YoY it has been down by 21% which is a big loss to indian industry leader. IT industry gave poor guidance for the next quarter while banking industry is posting gud performance. Government is planning to pass FDI pretty soon. But i guess our government is just a “Bol Bachchan”..SInce long we are hearing from government that they are working but we are not getting any results. On other hand Spain got a bailout yesterday but european markets have reacted negatively and am sure thats true because people are printing money which will create inflation in the world. So overall we may see some downside in the market in coming week. Technically speaking all the indicators have shown weakness on the chart. We may witness a volatile session in coming days because last time when we witnessed all 3 moving averages converging at one point, nifty had witnessed 250 points downside in 3 days. NIFTY’s range for next week is 5165-5225. Breakout of either level on closing basis will decide the trend further. My strategy for next week is go Short below 5165 while go long above 5227.

#126 Nifty Update: "COCKTAIL" of signals on NIFTY Chart

Again a Bollywood connection of NIFTY this week with Saif’s movie “Cocktail”. I havent seen the movie yet but from the trailer i could make out that Saif is friend with both of them and at last he has to choose from either Diana or Deepika… Same is the case with the chart abv..In this case Saif is NIFTY and Deepika and Diana are Bear and Bull… Saif (nifty) in our case is confused at this stage that whom to choose. Currently NIFTY is trading in the minor trends upward channel while its in Major downside channel, one gap above upto 5300 while another gap at 5170 on downside and its trading above all the long term moving averages while it gave false breakout of FLAG pattern. So its all Hoch-Poch on the nifty side technically. You might be questioning why is that thick resistance line drawn below few candles?? But you may notice that all the close are at the Line so the line is valid and secondly 2 candles have given a marginal close above the line but the next day again it closed at the line so breakout is not confirmed. Fundamentally, we say many events last week starting with INFOSYS worst performance last quarter and better performance from TCS. IIP numbers has improved MoM. Inflation number next week will  also be reflected on the next week move. Internationally we have seen same mixed news last week. Jobless claim has decreased in US but LIBOR scandal is taking heat in media and it is expected to cost $20billion to banking industry if it is solved. So it was all a “Cocktail” last week in the markets around the world. Now what further on the NIFTY?? Technically speaking NIFTY should follow that small upward channel… Be long on NIFTY with stop loss of 5200…Upside resistance is at 5370 ….Speed breaker resistance at 5280,5327.. Strategy Take a long position with stop loss of 5200 and Go Short below 5160.

#125 Nifty Update: 70 points rain cools off all traders

NIFTY had been range bound last week between 5280-5327 which was considered to be consolidation phase. NIFTY has confirmed the flag pattern breakout on charts today which is considered to be bullish for near term. Fundamentally we have not received any cheering news for the traders but this rally is purely technical or investors are anticipating good news in coming weeks. Partial mining rights are given in karnataka’s ban which was lil thing to cheer but no FDI investing allowed is still a inflow problem which is depreciating rupee against all foreign currency. Globally something to cheer was that spanish banks have got bailout but on other side we are witnessing scams in LIBOR rate. Many american banks have started submitting their “Wills” which clarifies what shareholders and clients get if they go bankrupt. While Europe’s PMI number is still below 50 level signifying a downturn. Germany posted worst numbers for manufacturing in last three years. Accumulating all the fundamentals bears have more chances of winning. Coming to NIFTY technicals we have witnessed a Flag breakout which gives the target of 5425 but we have to speed breakers before that. 5360 is the strong level on weekly chart on closing basis which means this weeks close should be above 5360 while daily chart has 5384 has strong level for this week. Now all depends on few key data this week such as HDFC result tomorrow and INFY , TCS ans IIP Data on day after. So my call is HOLD your longs and add positions above 5360 and on downside exit positions below 5280.