Monthly Archives: September 2012

#138 Nifty Update: Mein HEROINE Huin……

Since NIFTY has bounced from 5216 to the heights of 5720 last week ,bulls are showing attitude like Kareena Kapoor  and are murmuring “Mein Heroine Huin”….but remember tht same attitude got her down…Arjun Rampal (HIndustan Unilever) has already started moving against Kareena (bulls in our case). NIFTY thinks Randeep Hooda (HDFC Bank) could save her. Now all depends on  her move tomorrow. All the major economies have announced monetary easing plans. My last post already mentioned above plans by ECB, FED and India, but china followed and so did japan. China has announced road building of about 2000 kilometers to boost employement while japan has raised its easing limit by 10Trillion yuan to 30Trillion yuan. But both the number countries Japan and China are fighting over the ownership of island pvt owned by Japan businessman. This has affected japanese companies operating in China. Where everything was gng fine in financial world some social cause has spurt up. Consumer confidence has increased in USA. Sentiments are bullish for long term for sure but i am expecting some profit booking in markets around the world .Technically speaking NIFTY is trading in sweet elliot wave formation. NIFTY is in Currently forming 4th Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Higher bull run as u can notice in the chart. Indicators and Oscillators are trading in overbought zone on daily basis while its flat on weekly basis and bullish on Monthly charts. Bearish engulfing had been witnessed today on nifty daily chart which is suggesting a reversal or consolidation in the current uptrend. So if the NIFTY opens up below 5650 and trades below the same level than go short with stop loss of 5701. Targets on the downside are 5601,5527,5468 and 5408. Profit Booking levels wil be 5585 and 5492 on the slide. So lets c whats the next publicity stunt by Bulls to save their last chance tomorrow..Fingers Crossed 

#137 Nifty Update: Markets Flooded!

Markets were flooded with the news in last 10 days and guess what, this flood was happily accepted by the investors as it was all soooo goood!!! Draghi announcing unlimited bond buying —> German court ruling in favor of ESM—> QE3 by FED —-> FDI in retail. This was the sequence of news which gave confidence to the investors around the world. Technically as i had mentioned in my last post that breakout of the range 5211-5261 will decide the trend further and so was the case. Market made low exactly at 5216 (5211 was downside range brkout) and then broke 5261 on upper side we saw non stop rally to 5650. But as the rule says all the things whether it be news or events or product or technology all has two sides. So is with all of the gud news above. All are wit condition* applied. Taking it one by one 1) Unlimited bond buying is ofcourse a gud thng but it says crisis affect country shld apply for the bailout and such countries have ego problems and thy arent applying for bailout 2) QE3 looks positive but it means printing money whch in return increases inflation over the world and dollar will depreciate against another currencies 4) FDI in retail was cheered by indians bt thy dnt realise tht our brothers and sisters will lose many business in retail. above all the final decision is left to respective state government whether to allow FDI in retail or not. So we can realise tht none of the above gud news are confirmed yet bt chances are tht it wil turn out to be gud. EU nor world wants crisis to unfold so they will save countries by hook or crook. Sentiments amng investors have surely turned positive. Now technically as u can see in above graph market is trending in form of elliot wave principle. A “spin body” formation yesterday with a lower “Doji” today signals some profit booking in the market. As wave four suggest maximum it can come down is 5447 whch in turns fills up the gap too. So strategy on nifty is that we buy for long term whn markets starts sliding below 5500 while short term traders go short with tgt of 5450. NIFTY supports at 5587,5558,5534,5510,5495,5447 resistances at 5632,5658,5676,5701

#136 Nifty Update: "Mission NIFTY 5216 Accomplished"

My post on 23rd Aug titled “Choona na Choona na aab mein overbought ho Gayi” i initiated short on NIFTY at 5420 with various tgts, last being 5216 which was accomplished today.Today NIFTY made a low of 5215.70 jst at my tgt of 5216. This down-slide was accompanied by “Coalgate” scam and weak Manufacturing numbers from Global markets. But to note some +veness in the market is the Retail Sales in US and Europe and the consumer spending index last week. Both has shown some improvement which is gud sign. While on other side Service PMI has also seen some significant grwth bt all are still below 50 level mark signifying recession. Its said whn economy takes a turn around , consumer retail sector leads the recovery. So we can say that consumer confidence is increasing and thts a good sign for the world markets. On other side labour productivity index has increased to 2.2% which is giving a strong base to retail confidence. Labour expense has also increase by 1.5% which inturn gives more purchasing power in hands of retail consumer. The cycle will be once again supplied with money at lower level whch will demand more goods which will affect the profit on companies balance sheet. Fire has been initiated , nw we have to wait for it to spread around the world. Now looking at capital good or heavy equipment markets, Car sales arnd the world has seen reboost growth of almost 10% except in Europe which is also a good sign. Talking about the hot topic EU, it could be saved nxt week and Draghi wld be the hero. He has said tht no limits to Bond purchase bt will surely take care no printing of money. So now lets wait for his plan tomorrow but we are pretty sure he will take step to save EURO.Cutting short my post lets come to technicals. Technically Nifty is in small downside channel but today it has filled up the gap at 5220 which was left unfilled in last rally. Taking into consideration Draghi plan we may see some boost from tomorrow. But NIFTY has traded and closed below 50 EMA today which is at 5261 so is the upside channel line. 100 EMA is at 5211 which is acting as a strong support. So next strategy on NIFTY would be on breakout of range of 5211-5261. Take position in the breakout direction, NIFTY supports at 5211,5198,5181,5160. Resistances at 5261,5291,5306,5332,5360