Monthly Archives: February 2013

#146 Nifty Update: Beaware you can be back stabbed!!!

Hahhaah dnt worry this isnt a warning to your life but yes ofcourse its warning for your trades. Before 3 days I posted that nifty could see 5630-5690 and it would be best buy range. Today we are in that range and I guess you all started buying..while working on the nifty chart late eve, I just noticed 5560 is a strong support..more stronger than if incase nifty closes below 5621, dnt panic or go short as u might get cheated. Nifty has all chance to bounce strongly from 5560..though I am of still of belief that it would turnaround from 5621 but it is just a chance that we could see just BEAWARE!

#29 Stock Update: "Bhaiya yeh Deewar nahi tutegi"

Ambuja cement stock price states its product strength. The stock has never looked back since it has been listed. Bonuses ,regular dividends and plus price appreciation has been all present in the rally. Investor who has hold it since issue would have seen its cost price at less than 0 now. Am i right?? Do you feel you have missed the stock? Nope..You can still enter the stock with the tgts of 280 and 325. Keep a stop loss of 175.

#2 Article 3…2…1…. Go!!!!

Last time I wrote for “V-Share” was in September issue 2012 with title “ Nifty on a Hat-Trick”  and since then we have seen a good rally on the index as well as the stocks as I expected. Let’s have a quick look at my picks than:
As on 24th August 2012
As on 25th February 2013
Axis Bank
Maruti Suzuki
Bank of Baroda

Reliance Industries
Tata Power

So analyzing my picks above, we could notice that only 3 stocks underperformed the index while rest 9 stocks have out-performed. Just having a quick look we could notice that both the stock which gave negative returns are from capital good sector and Top performing stocks are from retail industries.  Basic cyclic wave theory suggest the same thing which has happened in last 5month’s bull run i.e., Retail sectors lead the rally and capital good sector is the last to rally. So keep a eye on good picks from capital sector though its high risk to enter them at CMP.
 Hell lot of things has happened since September last year at the domestic and global  too but all has factored in positively for the markets. Our new finance minister had just completed one month than but now after completing almost half a year we could see the result on the index. Increase in Gold import duties, rise in fuel price, rise in railway fares, FDI in aviation, FDI in retail, easing bank rates, Improvement in IIP data , Ease of Inflation etc all has been factored positively as people know that it is good for our economy to survive.
3…2…1…GO!!!  Just 3 days to go for budget to be announced and NIFTY like a racing car could speed up its movement post budget. Our current FM had presented Budget 13yrs back and I guess it had brought cheer amongst traders and same could be expected this February. Majority of the traders are of the opinion that post budget we could see downside but I am of the opinion that opposite could happen and we may see some rally post budget. Decontrol of the fuel price was taken as negative sentiments for some investors but if we look behind that we were infact late to do this. This was the biggest deep which made fiscal deficit valley deeper. As per my view was the right time to liberalize diesel prices. Coming to import duty than I am opinion that it isn’t the right way to increase revenue rather government should liberalize or ease export of agri commodities as india’s 80% of populitions main income is from Agri. But of-course people at the center are more experienced than me and would have some better plans in coming months and I expect 28th February to be a start to it.
Coming to NIFTY’s chart we could see that it has been in good wave since the low of 4770. If I am not wrong market is currently in 4th wave of the larger wave 3 of one more degree larger wave 3. Looking at the Indicator MACD , nifty is in the confused state while RSI is suggesting some pullback and bull momentum. This week of the year is always confusing for the analysts. On weekly chart of NIFTY 5820 is the strong support and it made low near to the same level today. This support factor has not breached by nifty since it is trading above the same since late june. So if this week we see close below the same than free fall could be upto 5630-5690 which could be taken as buying opportunity for long term rather going short. Overall we are ought to be in Bull run until nifty closes below 5400. Looking simply at the long term averages, nifty has been taking support exactly at 100EMA since last three sessions and below that we could see support at 5630 where 200 EMA as well as wave formation is taking support.
Stock picks:
I would like to make few changes to my picks .Exit BHEL, SIEMENS, TATAPOWER , IDFC ,WIPRO and Bank of Baroda. I would recommend to add Adani Enterprise, TCS, Dena Bank, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy and Ambuja Cement. I have few reasons for these changes. First of all i have introduced my exposure to cement sector and Pharma Sector. Secondly, have chose 2 stocks out of the index as they might out- perform. Thirdly, I have replaced few profit stocks of index with other safe index stocks to protect our exposure to non index stocks. 
Strategy on nifty:
For those who are already having some long position on NIFTY should average above 5950 or if we see weekly close below 5820 than should wait for the range 5630-5690 to buy more. Positional traders shouldn’t go short at any movement currently as I am not expecting more downside than 5630-5690. Close all longs at 5550 and go short only below 5400.  Next tgt on NIFTY is 6550.
Note: All the data and graph is as of 25th February 2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email.

#28 Stock Update: Mining sector stock Pick for Portolio-"Adani Enterprise"

Mining sector stocks has seen beating of around 50-80% on avg after the scam in 2010. Some of the stock from sector which saw the most beating are Adani Enterprise, JSWSteel and Jindal Stel. Looking at those counters now Adani Enterprise chart seems to saw some positive trait. Stock has declined from 770 to 153 in 2 years. From the low of 153 it made a high of 290 in recent months. Thats almost 90% return frm the low. This gives some confirmation!!! have a look at weekly chart it gives a technical support at 207 and did bounced back from there. On other hand Guj govt took away the stay order from the company for mining and this may bring some positive move from the stock. So we recommend to go long long at 232 with tgts of  435 and 890 for long term.

#145 Nifty Update: Positive always overcomes the weakness!!

In my last post i mentioned to be cautious until nifty breaks the range of 5884-5921 and nifty did break 5884 bt didnt close below tht and on other side today nifty has closed above 5921 today with a “bullish engulfing” giving some strength to our bulls in the market. As i had suggested on nifty on 8th Feb tht it would be dangerous if the market break the green thread trendline, but with traders grace we havent seen tht scenario yet. GDP number and IIP data has been weaker but i guess people had expected tht and discounted it through 6100-5880. Now for risk takers i would suggest to long tomorrow if nifty opens positive. Go long only above the level of 5931 on cash nifty. And for the safe traders 5964 is the level to enter. So now the tgts on Nifty are 5964/5990/6015/6052/6100 .But guys keep a strict Stop loss of 5884 on closing basis. New level to initiate short is only below 5862.

#27 Stock Update: NaNo will drive you to "375" in 6-8 months

“Tata Motor” cars aren’t famous amongst rich middle class but it means a lot to two imp class: Low middle class and Upper Rich class. Why?? Low middle class gets a affordable car Nano and Indica while Upper rich  class gets Jaguar, Land Rover and Range Rover. So the company has got a good hold on the major % of indian population. If they are not the market leader yet thn they could be in near future. Tata Motors have just quadruple their investment in takeover of Jaguar so company is in good position fundamentally. Sales could pick up more in coming times when economy condition improves. So fundamentally the company could get more stronger in coming time. Now coming to the benefit of traders. Stock has rallied from the low of Rs.12 in 2001 to 199 in 2006. But than bad times took it to 24.20 from which stock has never looked back until 337. I could catch some patterns on the stock and could feel that 289 could be a long time support. For the Portfolio investors this the right time to enter the stock . Stock could go upto 445-508 but it   will take to activate that target. So just go long on the stock currently and 375 has been activated which could be achieved in 3-6mnths i.e, 25% return.

#26 Stock Update: "DENA hi lena"…tgt 173/195/256

Banking stock has seen some profit booking after a new high last month..Bank nifty suggest some more downside if it doesnt pick up this week. As i was talking to one of the trader he got me in focus this stock. I studied the chart of DENABANK and i think this could be a multibagger stock in banking sector. Attached above is weekly chart of the bank and we could see how it has performed after a low of 24. Quarterly result was little disappointing but ofcourse bad news slide is the best chance to buy for long term. So technically i feel 93-106 is the best range to buy the stock in current scenario. 173-195-256 are some long term targets with holding period of minimum of 6 mnths. Though long term calls dont have a stop loss but i will like to give you stop loss of 84. But am sure you should bet on the stock 

#144 Nifty Update: NIFTY seems weak but something positive arnd the corner too!!

YES i got the answer to my post of nifty yesterday, Ans: “NO”!!! 5927 was the new low and the tgt of double top 5921 was achieved today. If you are regular trader and tracking nifty thn you would have noticed today tht NIFTY created 5921 low thrice in intraday and reversed. Someone would have thought it was a triple bottom but so was not case. As i was tweeting and updating tht this level was last chance to square off long n blindly go short and the same thing happened. 5921 was breached at around 2.45pm and thn we saw low of 5883.90 on nifty. Yeah thts true in morning i was positive on the markets as it opened positive and open was equal to low but as soon as tht was breached it was clear tht nifty could nw achieve double top tgt. But now if u havent gone short dont risk it on monday opening as there is something positive around the chart   . The thin green support line is stretched from the low of 4770 and you could see market has taken support today exactly at same level. Now what next?? Indicators are indicating weakness but price takes a support. Now nxt level to go short is below 5889. But now i am not expecting much downside. max it could go is 5832-5862. So its better now to wait for nifty to take support to buy more and on other side go long above 5961. So strategy for un-positioned trader now is to wait for 5832-5862 or 5961  and for people who are short keep stop loss of 5921 and book profits in the range of 5832-5862. And for the people in the Long still, keep 5889 a strict SL

#143 Nifty Update: 5927 a new low??

NIFTY today was best for trading people as it gave movement both sides for traders to earn. But a important to notice was tht though GDP data were weak, we didnt witness a big fall which was expected. Does this mean that investors are still positive on the markets?? May be yes!! As per my chart analysis, Nifty  chart was going to give a turn around point today on either side and i guess it was the new low 5927! Now what next ?? hhmm… If the nifty opens above 5938 and trades above the same tomorrow than jst risk on the long side and keep a sl of 5921. Ofcourse we are not expecting a 500 point rally but 6100 is achievable. So now lets c whats the opening score tomorrow till than we cnt say mch on the niftys road ahead.