Monthly Archives: June 2013

#6 Article: Markets at a glance

Nifty has still been trading in the downside channel. In last month issue I did mention that the market was in crucial range between 5855-6118 and could go either. Unfortunately it was on the downside. India was under-performing its western peers. Last month was full for global events which had some profit booking effects on all equity markets. But all the events have some long term good sign of economic recovery. Fed announced that it may stop easing money inflow to the markets as they believe a recovery in US economy is back on track. Consumer confidence number, retail sales number and Home sales number have been increasing significantly in the US while somewhat similar trend has been witnessed in Europe.  But Asia was little hazy last month with their economy and money market. Japan’s Nikkie was on lower circuits for couple of days as yen got stronger while Shanghai compositie also saw more than 5% cut for 2 days as People bank of China plan to squeeze liquidity in markets by making loan approval a stricter way. Overnight money market rates in China had shoot up to 6% when PBOC stated about squeezing liquidity. But overall US and Europe are sighting some recovery in the economy but yet not completely out of recession.

Coming to our market, most talked about last month was USD/INR. Our currency was at the life time low to around 61. No one could have even imagined that we could get to this low in just few months. On my blog http://Chartechnician.blogspot.comI had posted on 30th October 2012 that we might see Rupee at 62.80 but most of them laughed off but now we are not much far from that level. We might now not see 62.80 ryt now  as RBI has stepped in to protect our economy. Gold import duty was hiked to restrict gold imports and save CAD (Current Account Deficit) but I feel we can save it easily by exporting more goods rather than restricting imports. Technically now as seen in the chart below we May see Rupee strengthening with tgts 59/57.30/55.75-56.20before making a new low at 62.80. YES!! STILL IN LONGER TIME TGT OF 62.80 ON USD/INR IS INTACT.
Coming to our precious yellow metal, Gold, it still in a downtrend. As I had intimated on my blog on 29th Jan 2013 that we need to short gold with minimum target of 25000 and we got that target. But looking at the monthly chart of the gold we may see some more downside. In dollar terms we have already seen some downside but in rupee term we may see downside in coming days for the reason I mentioned above that I am expecting our rupee to be strong which could bring down gold price. Last week Morgan Stanley has downgraded the gold targets to $1300 upto 2015. So now gold could not be a preferred investment asset with a medium term view of 3-5 years. Our strategy would be to short gold on every rise with SL of Rs. 28000
Coming to Nifty technical, it is still in a secular bull trend but we are experiencing some reaction within. But monthly chart is moving exactly as per the standard Elliot wave pattern. Now we have a strong support at 5678. 100EMA is 5844 and 200 EMA at 5757 which are crucial levels on nifty nearby.  You all should consider these levels to add longs as we might see some downside upto 5678 but now take that as the opportunity for long term investment. Strategy would be going long on Nifty at CMP and add longs on downside at 5757 and with strict SL of 5632

Note: All the data and graph is as of 28 June 2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.

#5 Gold Update: Target 25000 achived on Gold!!! Still more downside upto 22500

On 29th January and Again on 3rd April i did posted that we are surely showing some more downside on gold and we achieved my 2cd tgt 25000 on GOld..My third tgt was around 21500 which is active now. I feel gold could further go down to 19300/16300 but 22500 is strong support and we could see a break to sliding of precious metal. So our strategy on Gold could be shorting gold on each rise with sl of 27200 with target of 22500. 

#2 Currency update: Rupee to get stronger with tgts of 59/57.30/56.30/55.85

On 30th October 2012 post , i gave target of 62.80 on USD/INR but most of you would have laughed it out, but today are just little far to that target. But i would like to update you all on the same.As RBI is stepping in to protect rupee and even chart says so that now we might see rupee getting stronger upto targets of 59/57.30/56.30/55.85  So strategy is simple to short dollars currently with SL of 60.80

#154 Nifty Update: Car is back on Track

It was the perfect morning for all traders as we saw a gap up opening after a long time. But for technical followers close was more perfect than opening as the closed exactly depicts a perfect bullish reversal pattern “a morning star”. All the three candles included in the pattern have shown a perfect resemblance to the pattern characteristic of morning star, i.e., both the end candles have a gap with respective to middle candle. Looking at the other side, nifty has closed back above 200 EMA which is a positive sign. Car is back on track as nifty is back in the channel. Though Channel is in down trend but it has all the possibilities that channel may be breached on upper side too with heavy volumes. Fingers crossed!!! But we are still long as i mentioned in the last post with all the upside target intact.  

#153 Nifty Update: Nifty and Bank Nifty closed at the Crucial levels

Today IIP data was announced at 2% for the month of April which was below expectations where as May CPI came at 9.31% which improved marginally. yesterday i did mention for nifty that it is tym for risk takers to go long and today we did saw nifty giving hint that it is trying to go upstairs now rather than down. It has traveled down almost 61.8% from its recent top which is the point we should all jump into the long side. Same ways Banknifty today saw close at 61.8% level of its last rally. And even more to believe is that both the index has taken support at  200 EMA. Looking at all the factors i still recommend to go long for those who have missed it. Next rally could be lead by mid cap stocks. Keep a watch on Mid cap banks such as Andhra Bank, Dena Bank, UCO bank, Syndicate Bank and Union Bank. If i have missed any bank please dont ignore them but its just i believe above banks to out perform. Now Nifty has some important resistance level, one of them is 5842. Safe traders go blindly long above 5842 where as risk takers should go long  tomorrow. Tgts on Nifty are 5876,5914,5940,5990,6035. keep a SL of 5730 on all long trades.

#152 Nifty Update: Channeling on Nifty witnessed

Nifty has been witnessed riding in the channel since last 2 months and today we saw low at that support line for 3rd time in same channel. 5750-5794 is the strong support range on the nifty charts as many technical points are clustering around the same level. Still i am not seeing much downside to gain if we short from current levels. So right now risk takers are advised to go long with sl of 5750 and safe traders are advised to take long position over 5883 with short term targets of 5960/6080