Monthly Archives: September 2013

#3 Chana Update

#1 Chana Update we gave a call to short Chana Oct to traders with tgt of 3044 which has been achieved. On other hand we did ask long term investors to get into commodity upto 2983 while chana is trading below that level. We didnt mention any stop loss as the commodity is volatile. Now the daily charts are in oversold zone which is signing of a pull back pretty soon. Currently it is trading below all the short term moving averages so its a risky call to go long. But as per elliot wave theory we should expect a turnaround and the rally now would be a long one.

Our Strategy: We recommend Traders and Investors to go Long at CMP 2886 (oct) with tgts of 2952/3061/3200. SL would be at 2765 on Closing basis

#33 Stock Update: Buy DenaBank

Midcap index is consolidating and just moved out to give a breakout on upper side. I just came across this stock and just noticed a interesting trendline on the month chart. The stock has been taking support at that line since 2001 and today its is trading around the same level. We would recommend to go long for holding it for almost 2-3 years. Secondly it has a good dividend yielding record as follows,

14th June 2007    Rs. 0.80
26th June 2008    Rs. 1.00
2cd July   2009    Rs. 1.20
7th July    2010    Rs. 2.00
7th July    2011    Rs. 2.20
21st June 2012    Rs. 3.00
20th June 2013    Rs.4.70
So looking other way it has a good return on investment. For Example, if you invest at CMP at Rs.47 and if the yield remains at Rs.4.70 than to you have 10% ROI which is tax free and price appreciation would be a added advantage as its at the strong support level to go long.  

#174 Nifty Update: head scratching for Traders

Nifty has been in the profit booking mode as we expected in our post #172 Update. Our 1st tgt on downside was 5810 and it has been almost achieved with a low of 5811 on Nifty index. Markets had been pretty range bound which has head scratching for traders. Now the tgt is 5677 but looking at the hourly chart we may see some short covering next week and that may be the end of downside correction. We expect a positive close on Monday which is a important close as its Monthly closing on the chart. We recommend to close shorts on Monday and wait for some confirmation to go long. 

#8 Article: Nifty resting before reaching on a Mountain Peak

Month of August has been a surprise for all positional traders. After a low of around 5100 we saw a quick recovery to 5700 the same month and ultimately to 6100 after New RBI governor took up the charge. IIP data had improved last month from almost -0.20% to +2.6 % MoM , which is a trigger sign to new road of growth building up. Yet inflation was not down as expected due to disastrous currency movement. But since then rupee has cooled off and we can be biased towards lower inflation in coming month data. One of the best fundamental move last month for economy was the liberalizing of new bank branch norms for pvt banks. New RBI governor seems promising and as per various economic analysts, monetary policy steps taken by him were the best for economy as per current situation. October month is going to be earning season and we could experience some real volatile sessions on Nifty.

Central government is working hard to improve economy by controlling CAD. Gold imports have decreased duty to hike in import rates but on other hand we need some strict plans to reduce CAD than with just hiking duty on Gold import. FDI limits in various sectors have been raised but investment are not getting clearance with the respective departments.  Jet-Etihad  deal has been talks since almost a year but still has been facing many hurdles. Second, WalMart clearance for retail sector is still lingering. On other hand Posco steel discontinued its willingness to invest in Orissa. Now 100% FDI in Telecom Sector. So , I am of view that we need more Dollar investments rather than restricting to imports. Looking at Pharma Sector, Indian firms are losing on quality check. Wockhardt and Ranbaxy are facing ban from USFDA which is a hit to the sector. Overall, fundamentally we need some check on our clearances to attract flow of Dollars in our country to reduce CAD.
Now let’s get to Nifty technically. Here I have attached a monthly chart of the Nifty Index. All the technical analyst might have understood from the chart that we are in secular bull trend. In the Month of August we ended up with Wave 4 of a smaller degree and now we are in the formation of wave 5 to complete wave1 of larger degree around 6200-6500. Nifty has been taking strong support at 50 Monthly EMA which is currently at 5270 which is a strong support for worst downside which I don’t expect now.  Looking at CNX Midcap and CNX BankNifty Index charts they are suggesting stronger buy next month than Nifty Index. In the month of October we may see some downside from Current level of 5833 upto 5741, 5677 or worst scenario upto 5536. Though I expect markets wouldn’t go down below 5741. I would suggest for going long on MidCap stocks for your portfolio with holding view of more than 1-2 years. My top picks from mid cap and small packs which could be multi baggers are DENABANK, ORCHIDCHEM, TATACOMM and RPOWER.
For short term traders view follow us on twitter @chartechnician and FB page www.facebook.com/mavjihari
Our Strategy: Going Long on the index and adding on dips at 5677/5536 with a tgts of 6212/6370/6500 in next two months. SL could be at 5471

Note: All the data and graph is as of 28 September  2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.

#1 Lead Update: Time to go long with tgts of 136/142

Lead (Sept) Mcx has seen a Non stop sliding from a year high of around 155. now its time for some bulls to get on the Power. As you could notice, Lead is currently consolidating around the strong support line since last few days which could be a simple buy zone. On the other hand, indicators are oversold and expiry being near we could see a short unwinding in coming sessions. Only negative characteristic on the chart is that Lead is trading below all short term moving averages but it is taking strong support at 100 EMA situated around 128. So our strategy is to go Long near to 129.60 tgts 136/142 with Closing SL of 127

#173 Nifty Update: rally is just the short covering

On our post #172 on Nifty we mentioned to Short index and we are still have status quo view. This rally could be just a intermediate covering. We expect this rally to pause near to 5974/6000/6025. DONT BUY positional  but consider this rally to short for those who had missed last time. Stop loss to our shorts is at 6112. Yes, For intraday traders or BTST traders you may go long with the tgts at Pause station 

#1 Cotton Seed Cake Update (Cocudakl)

Cotton Seed Cake (Cocudakl) December expiry is trading at a string support line which has been tested twice before in last 3 years. With Some simple logic it is trading in a upside channel as you could notice in the attached graph. Currenctly it is at the downside line or you may say at the best possible price to enter. Indicators on daily charts are totally oversold and its trading below all the short term averages. For Short Term traders its clear buy at CMP of 1449 tgts 1463/1488/1513 with sl of 1428 where as for Long term investors also its a buy but with larger SL of 1414  as the weekly charts havent been strong bullers yet. For trading tips on commodities follow us at @chartechnician on twitter and Facebook page Chartechnician 

#172 Nifty Update: Time for some profit booking

RBI governor did surprise markets as traders were expecting a status quo but he did raise repo rate. May be it is the right step has increasing inflation is a concern for our country and even technically it was time for some profit booking on the charts on Nifty. We have got a good thousand points move non-stop and it was the bliss for those atleast got 50% move correct. Next week being expiry it ought to be profit booking as this expiry was only a up move. Next month is going to be earning season and we might continue see disappointing earnings since currency had de-valuated a lot this quarter. Markets are overbought technically on the daily chart and we are expecting some downside in coming weeks. Our strategy is to SHORT Nifty below 5988 with SL of 6090 (Closing basis) tgts 5810/5677/5586  

#2 Chana Update

On sept 17th we did mention traders to Short chana with the tgt of 3100 and 3044. We have got the first tgt and just few points away from the second tgt. On other side first level of buying for investors at 3103 has also been achieved. Now the daily chart is in the consolidation phase, taking strong support of the support line third time at 3063. But the weekly charts are still suggesting for some more downside. We might see some rally on daily charts but overall we still seem weakness.

Our strategy is status quo for investors while traders could add to shorts below 3063 with old tgt 3044 and extended 2990.  For traders now trailing SL is 3174(closing)

#171 Nifty Update: Nifty was Drunk

Nifty had a great party and was drunk completely today. My tgt was 6150 on Nifty and it was almost achieved with high of 6142. A day before yesterday i did mention to go long on Nifty and now we are dicey from here. Technically we are expecting a small correction but other side it has chances to move up. RBI policy tomorrow and expecting no rate cut is adding more biasness to profit booking. We may Nifty to take support arround 5840.  Today around 3pm we did post to hedge longs with 6000 PE and we guess you did it and if u missed, we recommend to do it at the first tomorrow. Weekly and Monthly chart are suggesting a close above 6100 this month but Hourly and Daily chart are expecting a profit booking soon. Indicators are near to overbought zone and Index is comfortably above short term averages. A profit booking could take index back to averages around 5840

Strategy: HOLD our initiated long on Index and Also Hold 6000 PUT. Square of Nifty at 6000 on Downside and book profit on PUT at 5840. On upisde its party for us!!

Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.