Monthly Archives: October 2013

#186 Nifty Update: Diwali Rocket Touched 6300ft mark

Investors rocket expires at the highest point in October at 6300 which was not expected by the street but we mentioned in our Update #184 that we expect expiry 6200 and we got lil more on that. There was not much fundamental reason to drive nifty but it was pure technicial support and short recovering which took Nifty near to life time high. Technicals are yet suggesting a good diwali ahead for the investors but its just we should have courage to book profit and liquid portfolio at the right time than. 6380-6500 is the range where you should book profits on your longs. Monthly chart is ofcourse signalling a strong bull but a internal correction could expected in next two expiry though we cant be sure of time scale. next 200 points rally would be backed by Walls of Nifty such as Reliance, Ongc, SBIN, AxisBank and TataSteel  to mention few.We dont recommend to short at 6380-6500 as we will wait for some confirmation before doing so. Technically as you could notice a support line of previous channel is acting as a strong resistance line today but is expected to break through before diwali. Nifty is still take strong support of 5EMA which should be considered as a trailing SL to our longs

Our recommendation: We HOLD on our longs with intact tgts of 6375/6500 with trailing SL revised at 6200(Closing basis)

#185 Nifty Update: A strong breakout

Yesterday Nifty took a strong support at 6080 which was the support line in the channel which i mentioned on our fb page After the bank policy we did revised our buying call on the page and initiated long on Nifty around 6142-6155. Bank policy was as expected so it rallyed up as rate hike was already discounted for. All the banks and midcap have rallied with huge volumes which is a strong support for the bulls. Nifty has resisted at strong level 6220 which we had been mentioning in our updates all this month.

Our recommendation: HOLD our longs on Nifty with trailing sl of 6125 tgt 6375/6500

Follow us at FB page: Twitter: @chartechnician or LinkedIn : Kush Ghodasara and dont miss any of our updates 

#9 Article Update: Can Investor’s rocket reach sky line this Diwali?

Nifty is about to reach the peak with all energized investors. Last issue I mentioned that nifty was resting before touching a peak and that’s what happening currently on the chart. October is always consider to be a eventful month as we have quarterly earnings report and this month is considered to be a turnaround time in the history of equity markets. Though not always but yes for India this was slightly the same i.e., turning point for our investors. Economy of India is still in a dicey stage where inflation is at a rising stage and Industrial Production numbers aren’t still a cheering stage where it should be. But the FMCG and service sector companies have started showing improvement on fundamental grounds which is a sign of start of new long term Bull Run in coming years. Though we cannot rely only on that ground but combining other factors we can be bias towards a bull run. IT and Pharma sector has given a good results too with financial sector. Lagging sectors like commodity and Infra has yet not beaten street estimates which is a perfect sign of a bull run cycle as these sectors are always last to give a run.
Government had taken some interesting steps during October month. First, they cleared bill for Jet-Etihad Deal. Secondly, FIPB cleared cleared some deals worth Rs,.1213 crore recently. Thirdly, RBI governor has taken some calculated risk to control money flow by adjusting MSF twice this month. Fourthly, controlled import of Gold has driven Current Account Deficit (CAD) of the country down which is a good sign. On the other side US had a dead lock for almost 10 days for passing the budget. At last on 17th Oct they passed the budget with a statement saying that a tapering would still be delayed upto mid 2014. This was cheering for the currency’s outside US and even to Indian Rupee. Looking at the technical of USDINR I had initiated short for long term on our blog on 17th Oct and we still recommend to short over the view of 7-8 months.

Above is the USD/INR weekly chart and we could see that after a high we have seen a sharp downfall. It’s time for some short recovering on the weekly charts but indicators and wave patterns suggest some more downside in a long time scale. On daily chart 50 EMA is at 63.20 which could act as a strong resistance in near term. But now we could see some consolidation. Our recommendation on USD/INR is to short on every rise to 63.20 with downside tgts at 57.40/54.70 Sl:64
Coming to investors rocket (nifty) technical chart, we were bullish since last month issue at 5833 and we are intact with the view. Our 1st tgt 6212 on nifty has been achieved comfortably this October which I mentioned last month.  Nifty has been taking strong support at 5 Weekly average. Indicators are still positive on all time scales but daily chart suggest that a pause is about to arrive pretty soon after a new life time high. We are in the 5th Wave of a larger 1st degree on the monthly chart and we could see this end rally anywhere between 6220-6500. Nifty just broke a small downside narrow channel today signaling a strong move ahead. We are bullish on Nifty as the Banknifty and Midcap index are in strong bullrun as per the charts. BankNifty has taken a strong support at 10600 and now we could see a move to close around 12300.
Our recommendation on Nifty: Hold longs on Nifty initiated last month at 5833 and book profits on next two tgts 6370 and 6500 with trailing SL at 6040 and 6200 on achievement of 6370
Follow us on our blog and our fb page or twitter @chartechnician
Note: All the data and graph is as of 29thOctober 2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.

#4 Currency Update: 60.40 achieved

On 17th Oct we mentioned to Short USD and we have achieved our 1st tgt 60.40 on the next day itself  But now before activating next two targets we expect a pull back to 50 EMA near to 63.10. Indicators are also at the support zone and expect a recovery soon. As u could notice yesterday it breached resistance line and now we could see some upside movement. But Weekly and Monthly charts are still weak so dont go long  rather short on every rupee rise

Our Strategy: SHORT USDINR around 63 who missed at first go. Call is for long term hedgers while traders can go long at CMP for tgt 63.10 sl:60.80

#184 Nifty Update: Rajan karega Raj

All Indians are busy planning their vacation for next week diwali but vacation for investors would all depend on Mr. RBI. Tomorrow we have a monetary policy and markets is all waiting for the results. Most of them expect 25bps hike in repo rate and 25bps in MSF which is already discounted in the market. A change in either rate and we could see a volatile session tomorrow. Technically as we had been mentioning in the last few updates that we are expecting a correction but not more than 6030 and tomorrow could be the day. A small narrow channel has been dipping downwards since last week. All the indicators are at the verge of support and  nifty’s upcoming movement would be crucial for us. It is sitting on the Moving average which we consider to be strong support. According to retracement and tiny gap 6020-6045 is a spot were risk taking buyers should go long tomorrow. We expect expiry to be around 6200.

Our recommendation: Risk traders should go long at 6040 and safe traders should wait for a confirmation.

Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.

#36 Stock update: NaNo completes its drive to 375 Km

In our #27 Stock update on 12th February we recommended to go long blindly on Tata Motors with tgt of 375 and we have achieved that this month. It was recommended at 298 and tgt of 375 which is 25% return in 8 months. We did mention further tgts of 445 and 508 but there arent still activated. Looking at the charts at current situation, weekly chart suggest some retracement. As we could notice that Tata Motors was on a upside channel and now looking at the indicators of weekly time frame than i am smelling a breakout of that channel on downside. Next tgts 445/508 is expected to be activated after some retracement

Our recommendation is to buy on dips

 At Rs. 362 buy 40%
At Rs. 351 buy 10%
At Rs. 340 Buy 20%
At Rs. 314 buy rest 30%

#35 Stock Update: Bank on Some Fitness

              Market mid-caps are at attractive to valuation but we have to select few out of the pool. One of them after Dena Bank amd Adani Power which we recommend is Talwalkars Fitness. Why??? Looking first into some basic fundamentals. Sales Turnover has been gradual increasing from 66 crores on March 2010 to 145 crores in March 2013 (rounded off). Earning per share (EPS) for the same period has been up from 4.39 to around 10.5. Talking about Book value than its currently at Rs. 77. One safe thing about talwalkars is that it has secured loans of around 125 crores while has reserves of 176 crores. Looking at listed peers for the stock than its only COSCO India with EPS at 0.70 and Book value at 32. Indias demographic says we have most population of the age between 18-35 and i guess they are now more health conscious.  Firstly, Gym is like a trending fashion amongst high school kids and College teens. Secondly, Going for a branded title is also a must for them. Both the conditions are favorable for Talwalkars.

                 Coming to charts. Talwalkar has given a breakout to strong resistance line with Huge volume as seen in the charts. Secondly now its taking support at new line. Stock has given a double bottom support around 109 level after listing in 2011. Currently it is resisting near to its 200 EMA at 141 but looking at indicators and volumes its a buy on Dip for long term

Our Strategy:We recommend to go Long at CMP at 137 tgts 179/320 Sl: 117 for a long term view

#183 Nifty Update: Madness around the Chart

Since last few updates we had mentioned a channel which was broken a day before yesterday but yesterday we moved back into channel initially in the day and closed back exactly on the verge of new support line. Nifty closed with a Dragon fly Doji but its not supported with perfect rules. Indicators have turned flats to slightly bearish with intact of my tgt of 6035. ONE PECULIAR CHARACTERISTIC OF NIFTY THIS WEEK IS THAT IT HAS CLOSED NEGATIVE EACH DAY. Yesterday we saw a higher high and higher low but we have to wait and watch what should we do the next. On thing supporting bulls is bank nifty which is signaling a buy on each dip and it has under performed nifty. Our trailing SL has been hit on both side yesterday and currently we dont recommend anything for safe traders

Our Strategy: Risk takers go long at 6034 or above 6220 today for holding it positional. Safe traders wait and watch for a safe call.  

#182 Nifty Update: A bearish Engulfing after a Doji

A rewind button has been pressed on Nifty today after 2 days of pause. But today i feel that more weakness has been smelt around the charts. Firstly, Nifty resisted around the same levels for 3 consecutive sessions. Secondly, it gave a super slide in intraday making indicators turning in favor of bears. Thirdly, the channel which we mentioned since last 2 updates had been breached on lower side in intra-day and closed exactly at the verge. On the downside we have a tiny gap unfilled at 6034 which is also coinciding with a another support level making it a strong tgt to be achieved on the downside. Indicators have shown some sign to move downside but a confirmation is required tomorrow from them. Trading and close below 6186 tomorrow is consider to be weak

Our Strategy: Risk traders are SHORT as we initiated during market hours yesterday while a trailing SL for safe traders at 6167 has been hit for long positions. So we are Status Quo for near term on selling side while safe traders its NO Trade zone.  SL to shorts are at 6220

#181 Nifty Update: Rewind or Forward after a Pause button??

Everyday you all come across “Rewind, Forward and Pause” button but since two days Nifty has pressed pause button on its level around 6200. What next?? A”Doji and spinning body” as circled in graph suggest a pause to a current trend and it could retrace or move forward (Rewind or forward) depending on the momentum of global platforms across. Nifty is still in the trading channel as we mentioned yesterday suggesting some bullishness for sure. But NIFTY today exactly resisted near to my 1st tgt 6220 as mentioned yesterday. Intraday movement suggested some weakness ahead so we did initiate a safe player strategy on out FB page during market hours i.e., “Going Long on a Midcap stock and shorting nifty with SL of 6235 (Cash levels). Risk takers are holding long for sure on my nest two tgts 6280/6310. We would recommend to keep Trailing SL at 6167 on downside and 6235 on upper side.  Though long term trend is positive with SL of 6050. Tomorrows CLOSE is a crucial of the movie ahead.