Monthly Archives: February 2014

#8 BankNifty Update: Can Jalan bring Kalyan for Banking sector?

Janal Panel is the appointed committee for reviewing New Banking licenses by RBI. Today just before a hour of writing up this post i received the news that Committee has submitted its report to RBI today after scrutinizing all the 25 applicants. Can Jalan bring Kalyan (Bliss in english) for the banking sector?? Everyone is waiting for this answer since pretty long. Fingers Crossed!! Coming to technicals, our tgt 10760 has been achieved on Banlnifty call initiated at 30th Jan. As we could notice that it has also breached above a uptrend channel as Nifty has but it gave signal a day earlier. Another important trendline which has been breached is the resistance line drawn from the high last year. It has closed above all the short term moving averages and 5 Daily EMA has crossed other short term moving averages from below giving a strong buy call. Now there are two strong support lines below for the index. Indicators have turned positive on daily chart and value buying has been seen in small cap and Mid cap banks, PSU bank seems to be ready for short covering tomorrow on expiry

Our recommendation : We are intact with our next tgt 10990 with extended tgt of 11100 with trailing SL of 10500.

*Note: all levels are of Spot index and not future.

#202 Nifty Update: Off-Road driving by Nifty

Nifty was driving high speed on the road and it has just slipped off the road today. As you all can notice in the chart Nifty has just breached a strong upside channel today and closed above that level. It had been facing strong resistance at this line for last five times but on the 6th time it just hit a 6 out of the boundary completely. Our third tgt 6211 has been achieved on our long call on Nifty re-initiated at 4th February. We have seen some re-initiating buying interest by FII in indian stocks. High delivery positions have been witnessed in the fair valued stocks in Index as well as in the mid-cap sector. Economy around the world has been showing some signs of improvement starting with the Euro zone. Portugal has seen 1.6% growth and Moody might give it a stable rating from Negative stable. UK has given some growth at 0.5% which is better than nothing. Still Japan is in deflation mode and it is trying turn themselve. Can Abenomics save them? April will say!!! Indonesia is the economy to watch in this next cycle. People say that it can outperform emerging markets in terms of Growth rate from this point. Coming back to Nifty technical it has just taken strong support on 50 Daily SMA and for the 2cd consecutive day it has closed above 100 daily SMA situated at 6163. If Tomorrow it closes about the same level than it gives confirmation for the bulls. Nifty has seen some increasing trend in the volumes in last three session. Expiry being tomorrow, its gonna be a high volatile session.

Our Strategy: We are intact with the Hold on Long with final tgt 6263 and a Extended risky tgt of 6310 . Trailing SL comes down to 6100

#7 BankNifty Update: Super Over between Bulls and Bears

BanknNifty has banked your profits to some extent since are last post on the same i.e, Our tgts 10390/10580 has been achieved on our long call recommended on 30th Jan.   Technically Banknifty is trading weak below 100D EMA and 200D EMA which suggest a under performance compared to Nifty which is trading above both the long term averages. This negative divergence calls for a volatile session ahead in either of the Index and i am of view that BankNifty will see some steep upside move. Today bankNifty gave a positive breakout on Upside small channel and closed above tht line as you guys can notice on the daily chart of Index above. But today i just came across a new bigger channel which has a strong resistance at 10630 tomorrow. So tomorrow its Superover between bulls and bears in which only one could win. But the volumes and Indicator are suggesting a strong upside move which could be confirmed strongly with a close above 10630 on the index tomorrow. FM yesterday announced more infusion on in the PSU banks of Approx 11k cr which markets took as a cheering factor on banks today which lead Nifty today. Some of the pvt sector banks chart have since a strong bounce bank from 3 years support line which makes it more bias towards sky scraper BankNifty. Index has closed above all the Short term Moving averages today giving some fishy smell. but upside is capped near to 100DEMA and 200DEMA which is around 10900 levels. So we are intact with our previous long call.

Our Strategy: Hold long on the index as intimated on last post with next activated targets of 10780/10990 with trailing closing SL of 10200

#201 Nifty Update: Budget gives "U" turn at the Verge

After long time we are back to our post run but since our last post #Nifty was pretty range bound which didnt gave us a chance to write something new on the blog. Today our 2cd tgt 6131 on #nifty has been achieved on long call initiated on our #200 Nifty Update. Yesterday Nifty gave a ascending triangle breakout on Hourly chart which was coincided with the Ascending triangle breakout on daily chart today which is giving probable target of 6160 on the daily chart. Indicators have turned positive on daily charts while weekly chart indicators are still flat indicating a neutral position. A interesting pattern which i can notice on Weekly chart above is a symmetric triangle which is also known as spiral formation. As name suggest a spiral which travels between two end, same is with this chart of Nifty. A week before it has bounced back from support level and now it may travel to resistance line on the upside which could be around 6240-6280 levels. A gap is also unfilled at the same level of  resistance which makes it a much possible tgt on upside. On downside Nifty even bounced back from 50 Weekly SMA (blue line) which made it a strong level with the support line. FM announced a interim budget which was a mixed bad but was consumer friendly which reduced excise on cars and also raised subsidy targets for Fuel and Food. Earnings of frontline stocks have been in-line with the estimated or to say better than estimates. IIP, Inflation and CPI has improved in favor of markets which is supporting Nifty Rally. So now only trigger from fundamental side could be Election.

Our Strategy: We are intact with our previous Long call with next activated tgts of 6211/6263 with trailing SL on Long of 6030

#200 Nifty Update: Counter attack at the Border

A tough war at the Border Line of Nifty between Bulls and Bears!!! Last two session has brought some important pattern of Candlestick out which is known as “Bullish Counter Attack” as circled which is that a bears Close and Second Bull candle Close are the same level which has happened on Nifty and Sensex Today. And interesting all this action is taking place at 200 DMA which is at 6000 so we can say that War is at Borderline and Bulls have came back with a force at the right tym. But will they able to enter back the borderline and overcome bears??? Fingerscrossed!!!! This spill on Index was largerly due to global factors such bond defaulter or you can say weak earnings at the DowJones Index. But for us what matters is 6000 mark which is a Psychology level and also a strong level of 200DMA. We did mention to go long on our last post But sl which was at 5998 has been broken on intraday level and not on closing basis. We have been mentioning to keep SL on Closing basis but anyways still you havnt missed the bus as its standing jst near to where you left.

Our recommendation: We recommend to Hold longs or stay on long side with revised tgts of  6060/6131/62114/6263 revised sl:5960