Monthly Archives: March 2014

#206 Nifty Update: Cruze Control your Equity investments

Oh Ghosh!! Traders would have piled off 50 points from the gain as we recommended to go short and stop loss triggered. Sorry for that but market is are strong uptrend momentum now. That blow off over 6550 was just untouchable for new trades. We are expecting same momentum to continue for 100 more points upto the range of  6770-6820. Looking at monthly chart and weekly chart this Nifty has no hiccups to downside any more. May be small jerk could come down in first 2 weeks of April which could be taken as buying opportunity rather than considering it a shorting opportunity. Bank Policy on 1st April is the next key even for domestic but i guess traders are not considering a important one this time around. Status Quo is what we expect in the policy as it election environment and RBI governor wont take any risk that could show any biasness to either political party. Markets are purely trending on political mood rather than any economic factor or fundamental factor. Indicators on daily charts are supporting move upto 6780 in near term where as on weekly and monthly chart we can expect a minimum move of 7300/7800/8031 in this calendar year. Before cruzing above 6800+ , we may expect a correctiong upto 6490 and 6260 which could be taken as long term investment opportunity rather than a shorting opportunity. We are bias on Upside on each dip.

Our Nifty Levels: R-6780-6830

#205 Nifty Update: Flight Missing to 7300

Most searched or read news last week would be abt MH370 missing! It is sad that whole world couldnt track a missing plane. With the all latest technology combined together we cannot find a plane then whats the use of such technology? Same is somewhat with Indian Financial markets. All were ready for take off to 7300 but that group of Bull is missing on the bourse to take the flight ahead. We might see a U turn back to 6250 from here. All the news have been factored and now we dont have any even domestically upto 1st April which is RBI Policy. I personally not expecting any rate cut as that my give some favoring to Congress before election. So may be RBI governor play safe until one more policy. Technically Nifty has given some weakness confirmation as per our technical Indicators combination today. Now we may some profit booking from tomorrow which could even a sharp one to 6250. If you are my old blog follower than i had posted on 25th Feb 2013 on my post that target on Nifty is 6550 and it has been achieved last week. Market is chewing around 6550 and now i am expecting it so slide dwn for a correction which could be as worse as 6082 that too in no time. RSI has turned negative and Nifty has closed below 5 day average after long time giving a short term weakness sign. MACD was already resisting to move ahead. Volumes have dried up and already IT sector had given warning sign of market turning around for the short term. Defensive stock such as HindUnilever and Asian paints were already showing positive sign which is bearish for stock Market. So we are a bit bearish for short term traders

Our recommendation: We recommend short term traders to SHORT Nifty CMP: 6483 with tgts of 6430/6340/6260 SL: 6550 (Closing basis)

Note: All levels on Nifty are of cash levels. All the words or phrase used are just for post purpose. We are not against or in favor of anything. Any resembelence to true event is not true. Avoid speculation from our post. It is purely related to Nifty Equity Market context

#204 Nifty Update: "Total Siyappa" by "Bull Gang" to win "Queens" mark by"300" points

This Friday was full of Entertainment for Indians, release of 4 awaited movies as i have mentioned in my tag line and Secondly they all combined, gives the Nifty rally same effect. “Gulabgang” (bulls here) with a mark of “300” (314 points range on nify last week) have won over bears to achieve ‘Queen” label (Life tym high on Nifty) with ‘Total Siyappa” (Total madness buying on the D-Street). A guy like me who is Film-o-Holic and Nifty Crazy would be on High after witnessing this friday. All the 4 films and Nifty have been hit till now. What we witnessed on the D-Street on Friday was total madness. Stocks which made the gang on D-street were two hot chameli’s of 90’s L&t and Reliance (as Madhuri and Juhi of Film Industry). We have seen some FII buying lat week in the stock but they bought more in Debt segment. FII figure aproxx was Rs. 3000cr net in equity against Rs.10000cr net in debt. So one thing is clear than even developed economies trust our debt products more than equity until the election results. As we have seen a tremendous breakout performance by bulls as marked in the chart, it thus proves technically that they are overall in control to take nifty ahead in long term. CAD figures were announced last week which has narrowed down sharply which is taken positively for the markets. GDP has been better last month YoY basis which gives compliment to market recovery signs. Now as code of conduct has been applied no new policies would be announced by congress but new banking licenses would be announced by EC soon while RBI policy is due this month end. We except a rate cut. Now all the demons for bear markets are left behind fundamentally. Technically, Nifty is in the third wave degree which is considered to be the steep rally. We might see some correction on daily charts which would be much deep though. A consolidated week may be expected next week.

Our Recommendation: We recommend safe traders to wait for buying level around 6150-6300 levels with than tgt of 7300. We would post soon when there is a clear buying opportunity. Safe traders DONT short

*Disclaimer: All analysis is subject to market risk. Study market carefully before investing on our advise. all the words mentioned are used with reference to market and for the posting reference only. 

#203 Nifty Update: Bears playing cricket while Bulls trending Nifty

Recent Asia series have been a disappoint for Indian cricket fans while at the same time Nifty has given some marvelous returns to traders. We have shown under-performance at cricketing field and also at the equity field but we have recently covered some respect on Nifty while we need to do alot at the cricket field. Our Final tgt 6310 on Nifty has been achieved against the Long call initated at 6000 on 4th Feb. Russia’s invade plan of ukraine had got hell out of the world but than it was relief when Russia called back their troops. GDP has been  better off for us and also trade deficit has narrowed compared to GDP which is a good factor to keep in watch for our economy recovery. Election date has been declared today which will start from 7th April and result will be declared on 16th May. technically all this factors have been taken positively by markets and we expect positive momentum to continue. RSI and MACD are in 3rd gear and are ready to gain full momentum while on the 4th gear before they resist at 5th. Index is trading comfortably above all the long term moving averages. As per Elliot wave 6398 is the first stop were Nifty could stop. We expect a consolidation or correction from the levels of 6400.

Our recommendation: Risk takers hold long with the tgt of 6398 and trailing sl 6266 while Safe traders could wait for some confirmed signal before taking fresh trade.