Monthly Archives: May 2014

#211 Nifty Update: Waiting list for traders at 7150 to 7500

Dream rally its nearing to its end. Modi has sworn in as Prime minster so has been profit sworn into portfolios of investors. Now its time to start liquidating 20-30% portfolio and wait back for interesting levels on the downside to buy back the portfolio. Today Modi team was announced officially and they have started working on the first day. Last rally from 5933 was in expectation of Modi winning the battle and as event has been completed i feel it is even discounted in the rally. Now its time to book some profit. Since the rally from 6820, Nifty has not breached 5 Day Exponential till yesterday, but now it was breached twice. That is the sign of weakness.!!!! Indicators on the daily chart have turned bearish and i have noticed a wedge like formation on the top which could be breached  tomorrow on the downside. Even 5 EMA is around the same level as downside trendline of wedge at 7309 which is hammering the level in trade. On the other side marked Horizontal line at 7257 has acted as a strong pivot point around which nifty has toggled in last few sessions. Last two sessions low has been around the same level creating a strong base to trigger sell on breach of it. We even have a gap downside which could be filled up at 6871. Weekly charts are somewhat indecisive to take either side while MoM we are seeing a strong upside. Though daily chart showing some weakness we would wait and watch for strong levels of 7150-7500 to be breached to trade on respective side.

Our recommendation: We recommend to book profit on all longs which we initiated around 6800. We would recommend risky traders to short positional below 7257 or buy above 7488 whichever is first. While safe traders are recommended to short below 7150 and go long above 7500. On the dowside we have targes of 6870 and 6500  and on the upside 7680/8031 Consider closing of Nifty to act upon the levels  mentioned

*disclaimer: Trade on my idea at your risk and after due diligence. Refer to disclaimer page on website www.chartechnician.com for more. All the words used are just related to article and doesnt intend to hurt anyone personally. 

#210 Nifty Update:India to 'Modi'fy themselves

NaMo NaMo thats what all Indians Chanting since last 24 hours. Its time to change ourselves and ‘Modi’fy ourselves in line with developed world. Some of our policies are still traditional which is hindering our growth which may be cleared on a fast track as now we have a stable government. What it means for Indian stock market to have a stable government? As my Analyst says

“The incoming of a Stable government, which after 30 years, in 1984 the last government was with a clear majority. So all the people in the country has not experience of what is means to be have single majority government. If the government manages it well, there will be difficulties in the initial year but once they clear the difficulties, We believe the growth will start to pick up. And if they will be able to fulfill it what they have mention in there manifesto,. We believe that one should be in equities and should stay into the quality stocks for a much longer period than ever before. So it is a multi-year bull run and this is the start of it.”

Technically my views are same as my Analyst, which means probability of Green wave in Nifty is about to yet start. Still Indian industry is yet to recover and when they will start performing it would still shoot up our markets further. Since 24th April we were long on nifty (6840) and are both targets 7200 and 7480 has been achieved. But as i mentioned in my last post we extend our target to 8031. Looking at candlestick pattern on daily we are not getting any clear sign while indicators still so positive that we are getting clear upside from here. Expect a volatile month end on Nifty but hold your longs.

Our recommendation: HOLD long with tgts 7600/8031 with trailing SL of 6790 on weekly closing basis

*Note:All the words used in post are correlated to market and it please take position on my recommendation after careful study and at your risk

#209 Nifty Update: Bear's Break Fail

Modi wave continues since we mentioned in the last post. Last phase of Voting was today and voters have turned out in huge numbers. All the states witnessed % rise in total voters over 2009 which is a good sign of indian getting aware of their biggest responsibility. What i personally like about Modi is his personality, strong and Firm towards his work and philosophy. Coming back to economy, we are still in not in a perfect stage. CPI was announced today which is at 3 months high at 8.59% while IIP is still contracting at -0.1% vs 1.1% a year ago. We need some reforms in policies to spur up industrial production not merely NDA win. Quarterly results of corporate are improving which is a good sign of some bottoming out of markets. Last two sessions have been like a dream to bull players. Nifty has moved almost 350 points in 2 sessions and expect some more in next 4 sessions. Technically Nifty has breached all resistance level and all the breaks applied by bears have failed to stop bulls wave. As i have marked on the graph, nifty has just came out of a consolidation pattern “Expanding Triangle” which suggest a upmove which has already taken a start up since last two session. Looking at the indicators, all are still nowhere near to high point which is strongly supporting our bull biased view.

Our Strategy: We stick to our previous post upside view and tgts of 7200/7480 with extended long term target 8031. with trailing SL at 6650 on weekly closing basis