Monthly Archives: October 2016

A bit more before a breakdown?

In recent past, Nifty has been quite volatile but Nifty Bank Index has shown some steady growth from 18900 to 19700 levels. One common characteristic of charts of both nifty and nifty bank is that both are channeling in downside direction and have closed exactly near to resistance line yesterday. Now what next?? Surely havent yet got any confirmation for more upside on Nifty but a slight more upside could be witnessed on Nifty bank charts.  As per my Wave counting, we are still into a corrective Wave but we can witness a reaction move in upside direction and Nifty Bank could outperform during this reaction as its about to move out of the channel

22cd_oct

As we even look at some other factors, say Indicators, they have also given a positive crossover from the oversold zone indicating a short covering. Secondly, Nifty bank has taken strong support on 50 day average giving a sense of bulls momentum for near future. Thirdly, Option writing is suggesting resistance this expiry around 20000!  But traders should take position in next expiry with target of 20233 in mind where probability of Wave ending is expected!

Strategy: 

Safe Traders: “No Trade until Clear sign”

Risk Traders: Buy with tgt 20230 SL: 19450

Rd disclaimer before investing on my view!

 

Are you trapped on longs at 8800?

Markets had lots of buzz in last 10 days, starting from a Surgical strike, World War and Deutsche bank bankruptcy but that was in line of “Technical charts expectations”. Recent high on Nifty at 8806 was exactly where i expected in my last post on 29th September  at

Bulls got their return ticket confirmed!

Strategy suggested was :

target

Now if you are safe traders then am sure you have accumulated good number of 8600 PE November and if you are risky traders am sure you had covered longs around 8806 and gone double short with the SL of 8980!

So one thing has been confirmed in last 10 days that Nifty has turned bearish and any rise would be an opportunity for medium term traders to go short again for good downside for my previous targets at 8150-8250! 

Are you trapped on longs at 8800? Dont worry you may get a chance to exit in next week….”Technical Nifty is into a Corrective Wave which at present seems to be in zig-zag form which is most destructive of all forms in of Corrections. But corrective wave seems to be forming  a complex pattern which “Can”  give a strong pull back from here near to the start of wave A which is 8980.  Looking at the charts of Nifty , we can see it has already started a downside channel which is  the first characteristic of Wave A. Now Question is the degree of Pull back?? …Its very difficult to say at this juncture where can a next pull back end but looking at other factors currently 8800 +/- 20 points seems to be the strong resistance but it may go upto 9000 +/- 20 points too… Next two weeks up-to Diwali could be again volatile markets with earning season picking up but would strictly stick to Nifty levels for a trade….

16th-octStrategy Now:

For Risk Traders

Cover all shorts which you have initiated around 8800 as i recommended in my last post and go longs for short term at CMP with stop loss at 8490 and tgts 8740/8820/8920. After Target one is achieved Keep trailing SL of last target and start buying 8600 PE of November with stop loss of 9000 +/-20 points 

For Safe Traders

Strategy remains the same of buying 8600 PE November on each rise with 9000 +/- 20 as Stop loss!!

Ultimate Target in coming months still remains “8150-8250″….SL 9000+/- 20 points