Markets have been playing between Demonetization and Global Rally, making it difficult for Analyst like me. Though until now it has been perfectly moving as i predicted in last few posts but still traders want me to give them exact point of Trades on #Nifty and am sure other analyst friend out there would agree with me that is difficult to always pick right levels. So we can always give you “Probability ” and not “Surety”. This time too i have got 4 Probabilities from this level on **Nifty **which is **8261. ** Current rally on Nifty could be either **Short Covering **or **5th Wave **rally which could give us new high but confirmation could be done after we resist at some **“Peak” **ahead.

**Step 1**

So this current rally could stop on 4 points on the upside: **8320, 8440, 8566, 8720. ** But i would give most likely **PEAK **to **8440-8566 **as its they are levels also suggested by Open interest side too. Technically both levels are 50 DSMA and 100 DSMA too making crucial resistance levels. Where as second most likely peak could be **8320 **which is small channel resistance on daily charts while the rarest possibility is **8720 **which is a Fibonacci retrenchment level.

**Conclusion 1: ***Rally is most likely to resist near to ***8440-8560**

**Step 2**

What next after likely resistance at **8440-8560? **Now the downside we can get two possibilities: **7640 **and **7400. **For me most likely target is **7640 **because if market resist on any of my likely level, 8440 or 8560, **it is the predictable target **from both. But in the extreme **fundamental effect **of Demonetization **7400 **could also be achieved which is a Fibonacci level and also **Support **at a trend line intact since the low in **2009**. Trend line has been tested successfully 4 times before making to cemented low for this rally.

**Conclusion 2:** *Possible*** ***Downside target ***7640**

**Strategy:**

Now taking into consideration that Nifty would resist to 8440-8560 and would resume downside for 7640, the best strategy would remain as my previous post “Can 3:30pm tomorrow be a morning for traders ?”

**Snapshot of strategy**

So for short term traders playing this rally on long side , stop loss is **8088 **as mentioned above which is 50 weeks average

For Safe traders hedging portfolio with **PUTS **as mentioned above would have stop loss at **8720 **which is fibonaaci turning level

For spread traders remain with buying stocks and selling index as short covering on Stocks could be fast and furious. …….

See you guys then at **8088 **or **8440-8550! **