#79 Nifty Update

Celebrations are still on for Janmasthami in Gujarat as well as on stock market though we had a painful 4-0 whitewash in England. Just a suggestion to BCCI that Indian cricket team should be sent to Ramlila Maidan and made to do fast with ANNA hazare… x-(. Anyways coming back to NIFTY , it opened up at 4927 but initially fooled people by slipping down to 4860. NIFTY closed at 4948 up 50 points. But technically speaking market was not fooling as it came down to fill up the gap on 15mins chart and then bounced back non-stop to 4960 filling up the gap completely at 4935. US and Europe markets had seen some recovery. Libya civil problem has been solved and oil production will resume in 2-3 months which is a great relief for many countries over the world who were dependent on that place. Short term investors with a holding period of 1-3 months enter Sugar stocks.. September-November is sugarcane harvesting season and better monsoon is expected this year which will have better yield of sugarcanes which is a major raw material for the production of sugar. Brazil which is the largest producer of Sugar has said that due to unavoidable weather production of sugar will be down by 6% YoY. This means globally price of sugar will rise but domestic we have enough excess supply so india will have low prices in local but companies get more margins on export as limits have also been increased. So enter stocks are Renuka, Balramchin and bajaj hind till next quarter. Avoid Paint stocks such as Asian Paints as they have a slack season during monsoon because construction is on hold. You might see spark in demand of paints may be in third quarter. IT stocks has seen a quiet a bit rally today but still i feel its trapping long term investors. Unless and until US economy doesnt stable IT will nt have a honeymoon period. Technically speaking market has confirmed the Doji created before 2 trading sessions. RSI and Stochastics are have just moved out of oversold zone and is confirming short term recovery. MACD is about to give confirmation if the market stays positive for next 2 trading sessions. Being expiry we might see some recovery in market upto 5100 levels. But i still recommend to hold NIFTY future with SL of 4750.
NIFTY levels for 24th August:-
R-5015                  S-4895
R-5050                  S-4842
R-5082                  S-4807
R-5132                  S-4750

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