#99 Nifty Update

NIFTY has seen a blood bath since last week. And it seems to have changed its path from a Bullish reversal of Inverted H&S to more bearish “Double top” formation. Double top breakout had been seen and now target comes around 4650 if we see close below 4900 for 2 more days. But foreign markets seem to have seen short covering on the Friday so we might see some profit booking this week. Expiry seems to be too volatile this month. Now we could see that another gap has been created last week around 5150-5050 . So in total we have 2 gaps upside which needs to be fill up any time soon theoretically. NIFTY has been trading below all the moving averages since last week. Now question arises what NIFTY trades positive next week??? Don’t get carried away. Markets are expected to be bearish or range bound between 4900-5200. So breakout of any level by this expiry will decide the trend for next month. If we see global markets they are certainly in negative sentiments. Greece is expected to go bankrupt within next 15 days if they are not given a bailout. On other side EU have asked Greece to reduced budget deficit to get bail out. Greece did increase property tax but effect of that can’t be seen so soon. So Europe markets are expected to extreme levels next month on decision of whether Greece is to be given another bailout package or not. Talking about US, conditions are worsening. Obama has given a tax increase plan but that is only too extent of $400 billion and which too cannot avail benefits in reduction in short term. But I feel until employment doesn’t push up we cannot see any good things in US. Prominent Banks in America are getting downgraded by top rating commission which is also a downside. Bernake added more fear by mentioning that US economy couldn’t recover until mid-2013. But analyst says that Emerging markets such as India and China are ought to recover first as valuation are cheap but for sure first we will get affected against this turmoil. Rupee is depreciated to almost life time high while gold and silver are touching lower circuits. So we could conclude that we may see some downside in stock market in recent future but then we might recover fast than any other developed markets. Our strategy could be buying 10% of long term portfolio on every dips of 5% in your preferred stock. But surely be cautious on Intraday position next week. And yeah I prefer Banks and Steel sector at current valuation. Wish you all a Happy trading ahead!!!!!

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