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#7 BankNifty Update: Super Over between Bulls and Bears

BanknNifty has banked your profits to some extent since are last post on the same i.e, Our tgts 10390/10580 has been achieved on our long call recommended on 30th Jan.   Technically Banknifty is trading weak below 100D EMA and 200D EMA which suggest a under performance compared to Nifty which is trading above both the long term averages. This negative divergence calls for a volatile session ahead in either of the Index and i am of view that BankNifty will see some steep upside move. Today bankNifty gave a positive breakout on Upside small channel and closed above tht line as you guys can notice on the daily chart of Index above. But today i just came across a new bigger channel which has a strong resistance at 10630 tomorrow. So tomorrow its Superover between bulls and bears in which only one could win. But the volumes and Indicator are suggesting a strong upside move which could be confirmed strongly with a close above 10630 on the index tomorrow. FM yesterday announced more infusion on in the PSU banks of Approx 11k cr which markets took as a cheering factor on banks today which lead Nifty today. Some of the pvt sector banks chart have since a strong bounce bank from 3 years support line which makes it more bias towards sky scraper BankNifty. Index has closed above all the Short term Moving averages today giving some fishy smell. but upside is capped near to 100DEMA and 200DEMA which is around 10900 levels. So we are intact with our previous long call.

Our Strategy: Hold long on the index as intimated on last post with next activated targets of 10780/10990 with trailing closing SL of 10200

#201 Nifty Update: Budget gives "U" turn at the Verge

After long time we are back to our post run but since our last post #Nifty was pretty range bound which didnt gave us a chance to write something new on the blog. Today our 2cd tgt 6131 on #nifty has been achieved on long call initiated on our #200 Nifty Update. Yesterday Nifty gave a ascending triangle breakout on Hourly chart which was coincided with the Ascending triangle breakout on daily chart today which is giving probable target of 6160 on the daily chart. Indicators have turned positive on daily charts while weekly chart indicators are still flat indicating a neutral position. A interesting pattern which i can notice on Weekly chart above is a symmetric triangle which is also known as spiral formation. As name suggest a spiral which travels between two end, same is with this chart of Nifty. A week before it has bounced back from support level and now it may travel to resistance line on the upside which could be around 6240-6280 levels. A gap is also unfilled at the same level of  resistance which makes it a much possible tgt on upside. On downside Nifty even bounced back from 50 Weekly SMA (blue line) which made it a strong level with the support line. FM announced a interim budget which was a mixed bad but was consumer friendly which reduced excise on cars and also raised subsidy targets for Fuel and Food. Earnings of frontline stocks have been in-line with the estimated or to say better than estimates. IIP, Inflation and CPI has improved in favor of markets which is supporting Nifty Rally. So now only trigger from fundamental side could be Election.

Our Strategy: We are intact with our previous Long call with next activated tgts of 6211/6263 with trailing SL on Long of 6030

#200 Nifty Update: Counter attack at the Border

A tough war at the Border Line of Nifty between Bulls and Bears!!! Last two session has brought some important pattern of Candlestick out which is known as “Bullish Counter Attack” as circled which is that a bears Close and Second Bull candle Close are the same level which has happened on Nifty and Sensex Today. And interesting all this action is taking place at 200 DMA which is at 6000 so we can say that War is at Borderline and Bulls have came back with a force at the right tym. But will they able to enter back the borderline and overcome bears??? Fingerscrossed!!!! This spill on Index was largerly due to global factors such bond defaulter or you can say weak earnings at the DowJones Index. But for us what matters is 6000 mark which is a Psychology level and also a strong level of 200DMA. We did mention to go long on our last post But sl which was at 5998 has been broken on intraday level and not on closing basis. We have been mentioning to keep SL on Closing basis but anyways still you havnt missed the bus as its standing jst near to where you left.

Our recommendation: We recommend to Hold longs or stay on long side with revised tgts of  6060/6131/62114/6263 revised sl:5960 

#199 Nifty Update: Hanging on the verge of Peak

On our #195 Nifty update we recommended tgt of 6070 on Nifty Short which has been achieved today and i guess you guys would have atleast booked some profit. Now future path on nifty looks lil bit dicey after carefully studying banknifty chart. Ofcourse Weekly charts and Monthly charts are looking still bearish but we are smelling some internal pull back from the daily charts of nifty. Firstly, As you all could notice on the chart Nifty is travelling in downside channel and today it has just managed to cling on the peak of support line in Channel. Technically tomorrow is important day for Nifty analyst as closed would be important for weekly candle as well as monthly candle. Secondly, Considering only todays candle it is a hammer or you can say a Dragon fly which is a sign of a reversal for a short term. And Finally, if tomorrows opening is little positive above 6082 than we could see a Morning star reversal after tomorrows close. Yesterday, FED tappered more $10 Billion  from its bond buying programme which helped markets to crash today morning but fundamentally you think its good news for Economy as tappering is sign that FED is smelling a recovery in its Economy. Our results have on other side been hawkish and unable to decide the state of economy. Our markets are majorily for National Election rather than Economic recovery. So coming back to Index for near term we are expecting a short recovery of 150-200 Points.
Our recommendation: Book 100% profit on our short Call near our 1st tgt 6070 and we recommend to go long near to same level with tgts of 6125/6170/6230 SL:5998

#6 BankNifty Update: Ranking your profits high on the Low

You might be thinking that what does my headline mean today??? I meant to say that even BankNifty made a near term low today, i am sure you guys are ranking high on profits as you would have made almost 1100 points on our short call on Banknifty. On 15th December we recommended to short BankNifty near to 11366 and our tgt was 10260 which has been achieved comfortably. A simple look on chart could attract you guys to steep fall in last 1.5 months with small recovery. But Now as per elliot wave we expect a small pull on bankNifty which would be intermediate move and not the larger wave.  The Chart mentioned is weekly chart and it has breached 200 Weekly average which was acting as strong support. But we expect it to resume support next week soon. Banking sector bulls have seen some tough beating and now its time for them to give a fight back.

Our recommendation: We recommend to go long on BankNifty  (CMP:10153) with tgts 10390/10580/10780/10990 SL:9980

#5 BankNifty Update: Bank's Tank's

On 15th Dec we recommended to Short BankNifty on our blog at 11366 with tgts of 10720 and 10260 of which we have achieved 1st tgt easily last week. BankNifty made low at 10333 which was just 70 points away from our 2cd tgt. Anyways No worries we will still get that tgt but might take some time. Today we had third monetary policy by Mr.Rajan and street expected no change but truely speaking i did expect a hike in rate. I am not lieing but who all are in my touch personally could recollect that i myt have conveyed this gut feeling. Inflation has did cool off in last number but that major change was becoz have decreasing in Onion price. On other sign IIP are getting worst which made me pretty sure that RBI will rake hike. Though i didnt expect hike in reverse repo. Now coming to technicals BankNifty is still showing weakness sign on Weekly chart but a short covering is expected on Daily chart. As you could notice weekly chart in above graph, it clear shows off strong support at 200 Weekly average last week. Secondly now elliot wave suggests that we might see a pull back to 10988 but thats just a big MIGHT. 10988 is also a trendline resistance and 100 weekly Moving average which makes that point more stronger resistance on weekly chart. I hope you guys have booked atleast 50% profit on our 1st tgt 10720, if not do it right away.

Our Recommendation: HOLD rest 50% short on bankNifty with trailing at Cost price 11366 and risk taker can again short near 10988 with the same SL. and near tgt is intact at 10260 

*all levels mentioned are of bankNifty index and Not future and rely on recommendation at your risk.

#198 Nifty Update: Evening Star on Index

Earning seasons have been lil disappointing till todays market session but than Reliance industries have presented a better than estimate results after market. TCS on other hand gave a better than expected profit but it was not able to meet its dollar guidance which banged stock of the radar today by traders. HDFCBANK and ITC presented results in-line with estimates so not much volatility on that counters. But on Nifty daily chart today i just noticed a kind of “Evening Star” pattern on daily chart which is complimenting our weekly bearish call since 13th Dec. Technically nifty chart has been biased towards bearish trend in ratio of 70:30 against bullish. Nifty was comfortably trading above 5 SMA since last 4 trading session this week before today but now it has closed below the same on 5th day which may be a sign of some weakness from average. Now monday’s opening would be important for our existing short call. Next week strong support level is 6168 while resistance is at 6312. So if you guys have missed trade this week than take a short call if nifty opens up in positive range.

Our strategy: We are intact with our SELL call on NIFTY which we initiated in last 2 posts. 

#197 Nifty Update: Critical Range 6164-6328

All of sudden was drawing trend-lines on weekly nifty chart and came across two lines which are guiding nifty’s road. After market Inflation was announced which has eased with higher margin compared with last month but i guess last hour move of Nifty cld have discounted that. Technically indicators have all of sudden spurt up on daily chart but not much change on weekly chart. We would ask traders to keep 6164-6328 range in mind for this week as they are the guiding lines as you all could see in the chart

Our Strategy: We are intact with our SELL call on NIFTY where safe traders SL at 6358 and Risk traders at 6450

#196 Nifty Update: TICKET CONFIRMED

Bears have got a confirmed ticket to 5700-5900 which they booked last week wtih “Bearish Engulfing” travellers co. As you all could see “Rectangle” marked on top which suggest a perfect Bearish engulfing which is even confirmed with a lower low candle last week. As i said now bears have confirmed ticket but there is always 1% chance that bears wont travel i.e., there is always a chance of other side on markets. Infosys came up with better than estimate results and also a good guidance but it couldnt hold Nifty on higher levels. IIP shrank to 2.1% in November with 6th consecutive fall. So one thing is clear that our industrial economy hasnt picked up as markets expected and we may see some disappointing results this season. Technically, indiactors have turned weak on weekly chart joining bears to downfall. Since last 4 trading session nifty has been trading below 50 SMA which is at 6193. It has been acting as strong closing resistance level for the index. Long term investors start arranging cash to buy equity soon in coming months

Our Strategy: We are intact with our tgts and Short call as per our last NIFTY update.

#6 Gold Update: "Old is Gold"

Trading gold or to say investing gold had been the oldest idea and its back for short term. Equity has been showing sign of weakness in near term which was the first sign that made me look at gold chart. And surprisingly it is supporting the inverse rule with Nifty or to say equity in that manner. Attached graph is weekly chart of Gold and we could notice that 50 Weekly Average has crossed 100 to trigger a short call but indicators are suggesting a small pull back on gold which could be upto 29470-30400. This pull back will be pure technical and we expect it to be a fast one. Short term traders can sure trade long but for safe traders we recommend to go short on the resistance levels as menitoned above. As i have circled area on the chart it is to show you how gold is reversing around at 28280 in this marked period. Since last three weeks it has taken support there and bounced back. Daily chart has also shown some sign of pull back. But on other side 30460 is strong resistance on Monthly chart which would be breached.

Our Strategy: We recommend to go long with sl of 28300 tgts 29470/30400

Note:* We might have recommended this strategy to our client and we dont have any personal position