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#195 Nifty update: "Double Toppings on Nifty"

We all get excited when we get double toppings on Icecream or Pizza but i guess after todays close bulls wont be happy with the ”Double topping of Bearish Engulfing pattern on Nifty’s Weekly chart”. On other side Bears would be happy of the toppings. Now time will say who can digest this double topping..Bears or Bulls…Volumes on Nifty had dried up as Americans where on Christmas and New year celebration holiday. Yesterday we saw a basket selling and people had two reasons in mind 1) Rumors that Manmohan Singh would resign today (but he didnt) 2) People in Europe and America were booking profit after High NAV recorded on Financial Book Closure on 31st dec. Whichever reason you choose technical had indicated on 13th Dec Weekly closing and we did post on Blog to be short. Bond Purchase has decreased by $10 Billion/month which could also squeeze out  some liquidity gradually from market over some time. High Inflation is persisting in India which could trigger a rate hike in next RBI policy. On other hand Auto Sales have decreased for major companies in Dec which may be due to Inauspicious days as per Hindu belief. IIP are still pitched at lower levels which is not cheering for our economy. Earning season is about to commence and we expect intact growth and not much of flourished profits as our rupee had been stable around 62 which wouldnt have bought much profits for IT and Pharma sector which are dependent on foreign income. So we expect some profit bookings by short term traders on Nifty but we cant measure the extent of profit booking on downside i.e., it could be deep or even consolidation. Only good thing going around in Indian economy is FDI reforms. FDI in railway could be a surprise for markets and good for Indian railways. Parliament even approved some of the investment such as TESCO and vodafone 100% hike in Indian unit. Linking some inter market analysis, Gold chart is showing some bullishness which is a sign of downside in equity though not directly correlated in short term but it could trigger some bearishness on stocks. Coming to technicals, if we consider a bull wave to end at 6415, than we can see some extreme downside as we mentioned on last nifty update post. But for short term we have again got a chance to Sell nifty with some stop loss. Nifty is taking strong support at 50 SMA at 6193 on daily chart. RSI has turned negative. So now it seems Daily chart is also supporting negative biasness seen at weekly chart since 13th dec.

Long Term Traders Strategy: We are intact with Short call initiated on last post with tgt of 5970/5750 and SL 6415

Short term Traders straegy: We recommend to go Short (CMP 6211) tgts 6072/5970/5895 SL: 6360

*Note all levels on nifty are Cash levels and trade at ur risk with careful study. We might have recommended this strategy to our clients and we dont have any personal position. My analysis is biased to technical analysis.

#4 BankNifty Update: Dont Bank on Bank for near term

After nifty, Banknifty index is the most followed index. On 19th of October we had recommended to go long on Banknifty with tgts of 10948/11200 which were easily achieved in November/December. Now time has came to book all longs for short time and Sell Banknifty. Ofcourse for long term investors its time to arrange for some liquidity as they will get a chance to buy some banks for time horizon 2-3 years. Fundamentally, as we mentioned in our last post on Nifty, we are expecting some rate hike in upcoming Monetary policy and also expecting FED to start tapering soon. Now coming to BankNifty Weekly chart technical’s, it has resisted at strong resistance line which was a support line last quarter. Secondly, A dark cloud cover pattern is visible on charts but not much valid as its not the clear top. Thirdly, the most strong theory which i follow Elliot Wave is showing some correction on the charts. Weekly, indicators have turned negative for the short term. Counting Waves, it has completed Sub-Wave 1 with as visible 5 wave Pattern. Now a correction Wave 2 with a-b-c is possible. We expected atleast correction upto 10720. At the most it could drop down to 10250 in near term.

Our Strategy: We recommend to go Short on BANKNIFTY (CMP:11366 cash level) with tgts of 10720/10260 SL:11750 …

*all level mentioned are of Index and not the future contract of Index

#194 Nifty Update: "Dark Cloud" covers Market and 430/688 points rain expected

Rain in winter is unusual but for the markets this COULD happen, so now carry a RAINCOAT i.e., put option to protect you portfolio for new 2-3 months. Last five session has been continuous downside and that was like a slow poison to traders as slide was a bit everyday. Looking at ‘Weekly chart” after today’s close i was shocked to see a strong negative candlestick pattern “Dark Cloud” cover. This pattern suggest a reversal to bullish trend and this time its more relevant as its at a “Clear top”. Indian Economy hasnt improved as expected or as market has discounted. Yesterday IIP were worst than expected at -1.8% while inflation was at the peak at 11.42% (approx). RBI is expected to hike rate in upcoming monetary policy while FED is expected to start tapering of Bond buying which will squeeze some liquidity from the markets. One more reason to see some profit booking around the world and India is the financial year end for US which makes FII liquidate their investment to adjust Balance Sheet. But one good thing for me is that a new high was in December than rather November because History says if a new high is in november than we see a downside for a long term but this was not case for us this year. Earning results would be announced next month and i am expected a little hazzy profits as auto industry hasnt seen sales as expected in diwali festive. Now coming back to technicals, Weekly chart has surely given a negative candlestick pattern while indicators are also bending negative. Nifty took strong support at 5 Week EMA which is also a strong support was next week. On daily chart we may see some short covering as we have seen 5 straight down side. On monthly chart nifty is trading below the resistance line. For bulls in power this expiry should close above 6288. From the elliot wave point, this was end of Wave 1 from 4624-6415. Now we expect correction of 430 points minimum to maximum 688 points if nifty trade nxt week below 6145-6152.

Our Strategy: SHORT Blindly below 6152-6145 and Sale on Raise with SL of 6450.. Downside targets for next few months 5950/5750/5470

#193 Nifty Update: A pause on the way

As we mentioned in our article update, Long was our call on nifty after Fridays move. Safe traders were recommended to go long above 6212 and i hope all are long. but todays move shows a pause on upside move. I am sure it is a short term pause!!! Nifty might hangover around these levels before moving forward. As circled  a perfect Doji has been formed today which also can be somewhat a dragon fly which is a sign of weakness but as its not the clear top but within yesterdays range, it could be jst a short term weakness rather than long term. 6123 is a strong support on daily charts while 6055 is the support for the week. As we have been saying Midcap are still a gud buy for portfolio holders. Indicators on daily charts are surely giving buy sign while weakly chart indicators are still flat.

Our Strategy: HOLD our Long nifty call initiated at 6176 (6212 for safe traders). tgt 6450 

#10 Article: Drifting Nifty

Nifty has been driving investors and analyst crazy in last months and in November it was drifting around the crucial turning points on the index.  We had advised to go long at 5833 on 29th September or to say October issue. We recommended Hold with tgts of 6212/6370/6500 but we could only achieve 6212 and then we retraced from 6342 to hit a trailing SL at 6200 as we recommended in last issue. Safe traders got a 367points on our nifty call. On our blog we had seen some negative signs and initiated a short call for risk takers but the SL triggered the next day. Nifty is driving really crazy!!! What is making it so??
                Fundamental earning season has been better than expected on the Indian grounds but markets have not yet reacted in line with results. Sept IIP was below expectations at 2% and IIP august has been revised to 0.43% from 0.6%. But it was better on YoY or to say MoM basis. But the rising fear was of October CPI which has rose to two digits to 10.09%. Food inflation was the main reason for increased CPI.  So currently are economy is in confused state where one side we are noticing improvement in Industrial side while Inflation is at the peak. GDP which was announced yesterday after markets was at 4.8% better than last 4.4% but less than expected. RBI is also confused about economy and not sure about hiking rate.  Now markets are waiting for two things. Firstly, new banking license announcement. A new story has built up and was confirmed that TATA group has backed off from the fray to Banking sector. My eyes now are on Reliance Capital who is emerging as strong contender for the license. I would recommend going long on the stock from the view point of 2-3 years.  Secondly, people waiting are for the political results which are still difficult to predict. So gloomy picture of economy is now more biased towards bull after GDP data last evening and a strong breakout yesterday on Index. Looking at global markets they are at life time high. QE tapering is eyed by many analyst and I am also supporting the same view. As the report says Treasury yields are increasing in US and the thumb rule says stock index is inversely related to bond yields. Job data are improving in states. So now what we could expect is that FED would announce taper soon which would taken as profit booking on equity around the world. Even the financial end in stated next month could have profit taking effect.
                                Coming to Charts on Nifty, we could notice a Double bottom formation which has a neckline at 6212 on daily charts. On breakout of the pattern we could get target of around 6480. Indicators on daily charts are expecting a up move.  Nifty is well above 50/100/200 EMA. Index has been taking strong support at 100 EMA which is currently at 5960. On Friday it crossed above a resistance line making a complete U-Turn with a drift. Weekly indicators are negative but Elliot wave suggest a move of around 300 points from here while monthly chart suggest that a top is nearby with max up side around 6500. Taking all three time frames we are getting a strong smell of 6400-6500. Currently nifty is no trade zone of 6000-6200 for safe traders.

Our strategy: Risk takers go long on Nifty while safe traders go long above 6212 only, with tgt of 6450. SL comes at 6000 and trailing SL at 6100 once it crossed 6212. On downside SHORT ONLY BELOW 5950.
For short term traders view follow us on our blog  ,on twitter @chartechnician and FB page
Note: All the data and graph is as of 29 November 2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.

#192 Nifty update: Smell of Rotten Stocks

After a long break when i look at the charts, i am smelling some rotten stocks which are over ripped and could throw away investors profit if not got away from it at right time. On my last post was long with small stop loss at 6030 which is been triggered. Now charts seems losing bulls momentum and bear might take control over it next month. I would recommend to exit 30% of the longs which i had intimated long back for portfolio at around 5400-5600 levels. Fundamentals aren’t much at a peak stage which could drive stocks more crazy on upside in short term. Looking at US bond markets. Yield on treasury is increasing and we could see a tapering soon which could have a negative impact on our markets as money would be drove out of our stocks to some extent. Secondly, December is always taken as profit booking month for FII as they have their financial year ending. So making some bet on FII inflow i am negative for near term. On other side we had seen mixed bag numbers for our companies and i am sure investor would surely wait for next round of earnings before betting for long term on our companies. Technically, a monthly chart i am seeing a strong retracement which could stretch down upto 5400 but dont expect a straight line fall unless some news from political front. Indicators are weakning all time frames

Our Strategy: We recommend to Short NIFTY (CMP:6057) with tgts of 5900/5720 SL:6140 (Closing basis).For safe traders or portfolio hedgers buy 5900 (dec) PUT nr to 39.10
We recommend to keep SL after expiry as tomorrow we could see a volatile session. all are cash levels

#1 My View: How long can XUV drive mahindra?

Mr. Anand Mahindra is the only Public figure from Auto Sector or may be from any manufacturing, which is highly followed on Twitter. M&M is not so common in portfolio as its Tata may be because of its conservative approach to its production or driving company. 26% stake is owned by family and may be he is the last hierarchy to manage group. Interesting to know M&M has 41% share of SUV in india while SUV is 55% source of companies cash Flow. On the tractor side, it has 1/3rd cash flow from that segment. Considering the balance sheet, its net consolidated debt of the group is almost nil. But why i wont prefer this for a long term portfolio against its peers. Why? Firstly, it does not invest much over research department against its peers and Secondly, its betting on SUV only and has very narrow product range. Now today the craze is of SUV so company is getting a edge over it but what if the craze is over? M&M doesnt have much holding in sedan or small segment. Do to over crowd in Cities people are shifting their ideas from SUV to small cars. Company said they are exploring rural markets but i doubt they could get much market out from rural. Thirdly, after Mr. Mahindra resigns the company we have to watch out for the guy in charge whether he is capable of doing it as good as Mr. Mahindra. So in all company is conservative one, but probably looking at american buy-out for technology improvement. Before entering with a long term view we need to wait and watch.

This is my personal view and there may be some biasness. Please study carefully before investing on my idea

#191 Nifty Update: Nifty-Leela is a BlockBuster

Weekend leela fever continues, whether its Ram-leela or Nifty leela, both had are Blockbuster for the people. On last thursday as i mentioned we had a morning star pattern formation and we had left with confirmation and today we got that with a booster. Global markets had performed good over the weekend plus RBI said that no hike rate in near term which has given a gap up opening on Nifty. New banking licenses are gonna be formulated by this Jan as said by finance ministry. for the same reason banking had seen some positive sentiment booster today on Index. Nifty has comfortably closed above all the short term moving averages. Today some of the scripts have seen huge volumes above the daily average. We are still expecting some upside on technical basis and Reliance(CMP:875) could be the outperforming stock as it has not seen an rally over the period, so keep a watch on it. Tatasteel is still a good buy for long term but wait for a correction near to 395-410. Technically this rally on Nifty has resistance near to 6400-6500 range. So bull is expected to continue with Nifty leela and computing with Ram leela performance on WoW basis πŸ˜‰

Our Strategy:Hold longs as we intimated above 6160 with sl of 6030 and tgts 6280/6360/6500

#190 Nifty Update: Nifty Salutes Sachin

Just one word which was lingering around the lips of everyone, atleast in India was ‘Sachin. Sachin, Sachin!!! Today was the day where everyone saluted Little Master Sachin Tendulkar for his last appearance in International cricket so did Nifty saluted him with a grand opening after 7 consecutive negative sessions. Nifty played a unbeaten 100* in first hour if its play but than ultimately lost some ground as i guess traders where buzzy watching sachin at Wankhde  rather Nifty at CNBC πŸ˜‰ hahahaha!! Anyways, today a important WPI was announced but it was as expected by polls at 7% which didnt made sentiments negative. The backbone of todays rally on Nifty was Banknifty which cheered speech of RBi governor last eve promising some steps to cool off rupee without increasing rate in near term. On other side result of TataSteel were announced yesterday after hours which were turning numbers for the companies. Coming to technical, in our last post we mentioned 6080 level to be support level and it was breached so swiftly on monday. We mentioned to WAIT and WATCH for confirmation and today we have got some signs that could give a clear picture of near future. As you all can see the squared zone it is a ‘morning Star ‘ pattern of Candlestick but though not a perfect one. It does have some significance. Now on monday if we some good opening session than we could see a short recovering rally. But we have a strong resistance levels at 6098/6160. Nifty is taking strong support at 50 EMA around 6000 level. 
Our strategy: Square off all Shorts at 6098 and go Long ONLY above 6160.More downside on cards only if it closes below 6018 on Monday

#189 Nifty Update: Haathi vs Chiti

We all have forwarded funny sms Jokes of Haathi vs Chiti  but now traders are experiencing such fight on Nifty Chart. As all technical analyst could make out from my markings on chart that two “head and Shoulders” pattern are visible i.e., One being a confirmed breakout (Haathi) and Second being in formation (Chiti). That the size differs so its easy for some people to say that a small one is not much of importance but as hindi dialogue says “Chiti chahe toh Haathi se bhi Tandav karva sakti hai” and same is true here. Techinally size does matter on the charts but we cant ignore the possibility of smaller formation. Fundamentally we dont have much to cheer domestically but US economy is showing signs of improvement from employement data and ECB also reduce interest rates to 0.25%. Results have all outperformed street estimates. If we talk above correction than Bank Nifty has already given correction. As You all could notice that even nifty has closed at support line of Channel. So everything including a Chiti H&S suggest a pull back early next week but who wins the war depends on breakout. Green patch defines High Volatile range on the charts.

Our strategy:Wait for some confirmation on either side. 6080-6253 is the range. So Wait and Watch as of Now.