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#177 Nifty update: Role Reversed!!

On our post #176 we mentioned a speed breaker at 5915 and yesterday Nifty did resisted there. Ghosh!! yesterdays close for nail biting but finally it did go with our view on bulls side. It is believed that chart discounts news before they appear on Media, and it was so true. Yesterday market recovered to the top in last hour because RBI’s after market step of reducing MSL was discounted. I hope none of you have been caught on the wrong side of the trend. As you all can notice in the chart, a trendline which was acting as a resistance on 5th Oct is now acting as a support line that is what we called ‘Role reversed’. Indicators have turned bullish and nifty is trading comfortably above all the moving averages. Now 2 close above 5900 would be a confirmed uptrend. Infy result this week could take our market to the tops.

Our Strategy: We are status Quo with our Long call on #175 Update with intact tgts of 5988/6090/6150. 

#176 Nifty Update: A small breaker ahead

On our post #175 we mentioned for safe traders to go long on Nifty above 5889 and i guess everyone got a chance to go long. Fundamentally there is only one event and that is quarterly results this monthly. Technically Nifty is trading comfortably above short term and Long term moving averages. Indicators on daily chart have turned positive but we are facing a strong resistance at the trendline which has taken strong resistance 2 times. But we are biased towards bulls as it had breached once above that in near term. So traders may go long intraday above 5915 on monday while for safe traders our strategy is status quo. 

#1 Silver: Aapke Jeevan Mein Chandi hi Chandi Hai

What you looking at is Silver Monthly chart. Bullion has been in continuous uptrend during in its life but since high in 2011 it has been not attractive for the traders or investors. But now its time for some trading on the bullion. Technically it has retraced 50% of the previous rally that ended in 2011 which indicates a strong level to buy. Indicators have turned bullish supporting a buy call on the bullion. Currently price is clustered around 5-10-15 Monthly average which is around 48000 levels.

Our strategy for Investors: Go long on Silver (DEC) Mcx near to 48500 tgt 51000/56000/59000 SL:45500

#2 BankNifty Update: Be ready for a take-off to 12300

BankNifty seems to be ahead of Nifty of signalling a buy call. Bank Nifty has technically taken a strong support of 61.8% of the previous rally and bounced back yesterday to a runway for flight towards 12300 in near term. But still indicators are not ready for take off and we need some confirmation from their side. On other hand index is hovering around once a resistance line which could act as a support line further. Short term moving averages are clustered around 10000 level. Currently we are biased towards upperside for the index.

Our Strategy: We recommend risk takers to go long  with sl of 9580 while SAFE Traders are recommended to go long ABOVE 10032 with tgts of 10600/11200/12300 SL:9815 

#175 Nifty update: No trading Zone for Safe traders

In our last post #174, we did recommend to cover shorts which we initiated around 5988 in our post #172. We hope that most of you got 215 points on our last short call. Now its a No trading zone for the safe traders upto 5889.   Yesterday Nifty has comfortably closed above Long term moving averages indicating a strong support level around 5740 which we had be mentioning since long. Indicators on daily charts are at the mid-way suggesting to support both the bull and bear side equally. Analyzing the chart with waves, we are in a secular bull trend but in the mid way correct phase. We could get a confirmed short term buy call only above 5889. For risk traders we have already initiated long on Nifty at 5760 on our FB page http://www.facebook.com/mavjihari . Follow us there for instant updates and recommendations.

Our Strategy: We recommend safe traders to go long on NIFTY above 5889 and add longs above 5915 with tgts of 5988/6090/6150. 

#3 Chana Update

#1 Chana Update we gave a call to short Chana Oct to traders with tgt of 3044 which has been achieved. On other hand we did ask long term investors to get into commodity upto 2983 while chana is trading below that level. We didnt mention any stop loss as the commodity is volatile. Now the daily charts are in oversold zone which is signing of a pull back pretty soon. Currently it is trading below all the short term moving averages so its a risky call to go long. But as per elliot wave theory we should expect a turnaround and the rally now would be a long one.

Our Strategy: We recommend Traders and Investors to go Long at CMP 2886 (oct) with tgts of 2952/3061/3200. SL would be at 2765 on Closing basis

#33 Stock Update: Buy DenaBank

Midcap index is consolidating and just moved out to give a breakout on upper side. I just came across this stock and just noticed a interesting trendline on the month chart. The stock has been taking support at that line since 2001 and today its is trading around the same level. We would recommend to go long for holding it for almost 2-3 years. Secondly it has a good dividend yielding record as follows,

14th June 2007    Rs. 0.80
26th June 2008    Rs. 1.00
2cd July   2009    Rs. 1.20
7th July    2010    Rs. 2.00
7th July    2011    Rs. 2.20
21st June 2012    Rs. 3.00
20th June 2013    Rs.4.70
So looking other way it has a good return on investment. For Example, if you invest at CMP at Rs.47 and if the yield remains at Rs.4.70 than to you have 10% ROI which is tax free and price appreciation would be a added advantage as its at the strong support level to go long.  

#174 Nifty Update: head scratching for Traders

Nifty has been in the profit booking mode as we expected in our post #172 Update. Our 1st tgt on downside was 5810 and it has been almost achieved with a low of 5811 on Nifty index. Markets had been pretty range bound which has head scratching for traders. Now the tgt is 5677 but looking at the hourly chart we may see some short covering next week and that may be the end of downside correction. We expect a positive close on Monday which is a important close as its Monthly closing on the chart. We recommend to close shorts on Monday and wait for some confirmation to go long. 

#8 Article: Nifty resting before reaching on a Mountain Peak

Month of August has been a surprise for all positional traders. After a low of around 5100 we saw a quick recovery to 5700 the same month and ultimately to 6100 after New RBI governor took up the charge. IIP data had improved last month from almost -0.20% to +2.6 % MoM , which is a trigger sign to new road of growth building up. Yet inflation was not down as expected due to disastrous currency movement. But since then rupee has cooled off and we can be biased towards lower inflation in coming month data. One of the best fundamental move last month for economy was the liberalizing of new bank branch norms for pvt banks. New RBI governor seems promising and as per various economic analysts, monetary policy steps taken by him were the best for economy as per current situation. October month is going to be earning season and we could experience some real volatile sessions on Nifty.

Central government is working hard to improve economy by controlling CAD. Gold imports have decreased duty to hike in import rates but on other hand we need some strict plans to reduce CAD than with just hiking duty on Gold import. FDI limits in various sectors have been raised but investment are not getting clearance with the respective departments.  Jet-Etihad  deal has been talks since almost a year but still has been facing many hurdles. Second, WalMart clearance for retail sector is still lingering. On other hand Posco steel discontinued its willingness to invest in Orissa. Now 100% FDI in Telecom Sector. So , I am of view that we need more Dollar investments rather than restricting to imports. Looking at Pharma Sector, Indian firms are losing on quality check. Wockhardt and Ranbaxy are facing ban from USFDA which is a hit to the sector. Overall, fundamentally we need some check on our clearances to attract flow of Dollars in our country to reduce CAD.
Now let’s get to Nifty technically. Here I have attached a monthly chart of the Nifty Index. All the technical analyst might have understood from the chart that we are in secular bull trend. In the Month of August we ended up with Wave 4 of a smaller degree and now we are in the formation of wave 5 to complete wave1 of larger degree around 6200-6500. Nifty has been taking strong support at 50 Monthly EMA which is currently at 5270 which is a strong support for worst downside which I don’t expect now.  Looking at CNX Midcap and CNX BankNifty Index charts they are suggesting stronger buy next month than Nifty Index. In the month of October we may see some downside from Current level of 5833 upto 5741, 5677 or worst scenario upto 5536. Though I expect markets wouldn’t go down below 5741. I would suggest for going long on MidCap stocks for your portfolio with holding view of more than 1-2 years. My top picks from mid cap and small packs which could be multi baggers are DENABANK, ORCHIDCHEM, TATACOMM and RPOWER.
For short term traders view follow us on twitter @chartechnician and FB page www.facebook.com/mavjihari
Our Strategy: Going Long on the index and adding on dips at 5677/5536 with a tgts of 6212/6370/6500 in next two months. SL could be at 5471

Note: All the data and graph is as of 28 September  2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email. Some words mentioned in article don’t mean their actual meaning. They are correlated for market.

#1 Lead Update: Time to go long with tgts of 136/142

Lead (Sept) Mcx has seen a Non stop sliding from a year high of around 155. now its time for some bulls to get on the Power. As you could notice, Lead is currently consolidating around the strong support line since last few days which could be a simple buy zone. On the other hand, indicators are oversold and expiry being near we could see a short unwinding in coming sessions. Only negative characteristic on the chart is that Lead is trading below all short term moving averages but it is taking strong support at 100 EMA situated around 128. So our strategy is to go Long near to 129.60 tgts 136/142 with Closing SL of 127