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#141 Nifty Update: NIFTY tgt range 5947-6045 achvd!!!

Last i updated my blog for NIFTY was on 22cd October with above graph when Nifty’s close was around 5717. I had mentioned in tht graph that we may see new tgt in nxt rally with a pause around 5947-6045 and guess what todays high on nifty is at 6043 😀 :). And adding a cherry on the cake is the “bearish engulfing” pattern today, indicating some correction to the index which was what i expected.. But fingers crossed!! Confirmation is yet to come tomorrow. Looking at some charts of the A group a small correction is expected on all of them but the mid-cap index strong. To add support to mid-cap, steel sector was flooded with some good news of increase in import duty of steel from china which wld divert buyers to indian companies and could profit from them. Secondary steel companies have raised the price. So now next rally could be lead by steel and mining sector. Talking about nifty, i suggest you to be short with tgts of 5944/5830/5630 and stop loss of 6050 (Cash levels)

#140 Nifty Update: "Male Victim reports Noon Teasing in Mumbai"

Disturbed with the tagline?? Yes..its true..Traders are teased by Sensex and Nifty today, Infact since few trading sessions.Many hiccups in the trading range was noticed in the last few sessions and market players are not able to decide route clearly. Technically speaking the last bounce from 5583 was from a 38.2% level from the last rally 5215-5815. Looking at the Momentum indicator it is not clear completely whether the bulls are ruling or the bears that is why traders are “teased in noon”. Domestically we have all the +ve news spurring the rally but globally we are witnessing instability. US president’s election are the key thing to watch this month. talking about the technical strategy on Nifty, go long at CMP or at every dip with stop loss of 5585..Short term tgt cld be 5965 and we cld even see new high from her nailing this low permanently. So be cautious this series as it will be highly volatile. Better plan your diwali vacation and get charged up for new rally thereafter.

#25 Stock Update: "Kitna Deti Haai"–100% degi from the current levels

Buy MARUTI for the long term investment with tgt of 2870
Short term tgts aprrox 1538/1688/1789
Technical Reasons:
Studying the Weekly chart of Maruti from Elliot wave perspective, i could suggest that it is currently trading in the Wave e (Brown) of one lager wave 1 (Dark green) of Wave 3 (purple) of Main trends Wave 3 (red).Consufed??? leave it ..in simple words it is in the long term bull run. If u are long term investors buy the stock blindly for 2-3 years with tgt of 2870 while if u are a short term trader than buy on dips with tgts of 1538/1688/1789 with stop loss of 1225. Looking at the encircled portion in graph it is another buy signal in lay man language. 50 Weekly SMA is abt to give crossover abve 100 and 200 Weekly SMA whch is a strong bull event. Aab saab baache ke BAAP bolenge…’kya karoon beta petrol khatam hi nahin hota’

#139 Nifty Update: ‎"Bully" taro Dhol baaje…Dhol baaje…Dhol ke dhaam dhaam baje dhol….




Since last 9days we all gujjus or even those who love garba might be humming the song in tagline ..but i changed it to the moods of Market traders in current trend. Yes, Bulls story is long lived ahead in the market from here. We have been consolidating between 5633-5724 since quite a long. According to eliiot wave as i have marked in the graph above we may have 2 possibilities from here 1) We breakout on upper range i.e., 5724 and achieve 5947 or we drawdown to 5450 and consolidate more between 5450-5817 before getting to 5947. Looking at the markets in global sphere it is highly volatile and we cld see that we are really undecided and hve to wait this week to end. RBI policy on 30th Oct is an important one to look forward.next week. A rate cut of 25bps wld move market upto 5947 from here on. Tomorrow we have a trading holiday so todays mark off from the highs in global market can be counter discounted by its move tomorrow. Indicators on weekly chart are +ve while daily chart are mixed bags. Earning season has been pretty comfortable till now for Investors to digest. So as i said now this weekend close 5633 or below tht wld decide the move further. So strategy for next few days is sit and relax ur legs as you might have played a navratri 9 days if not relax your mind as i am sure u wld have been frustrated due to range bound movement…But dnt worry “yeh tofan ke pehle ka sanata hai mere bhai”…but u nvr knw tofan (move) cld be either side.!!!!!

#138 Nifty Update: Mein HEROINE Huin……

Since NIFTY has bounced from 5216 to the heights of 5720 last week ,bulls are showing attitude like Kareena Kapoor  and are murmuring “Mein Heroine Huin”….but remember tht same attitude got her down…Arjun Rampal (HIndustan Unilever) has already started moving against Kareena (bulls in our case). NIFTY thinks Randeep Hooda (HDFC Bank) could save her. Now all depends on  her move tomorrow. All the major economies have announced monetary easing plans. My last post already mentioned above plans by ECB, FED and India, but china followed and so did japan. China has announced road building of about 2000 kilometers to boost employement while japan has raised its easing limit by 10Trillion yuan to 30Trillion yuan. But both the number countries Japan and China are fighting over the ownership of island pvt owned by Japan businessman. This has affected japanese companies operating in China. Where everything was gng fine in financial world some social cause has spurt up. Consumer confidence has increased in USA. Sentiments are bullish for long term for sure but i am expecting some profit booking in markets around the world .Technically speaking NIFTY is trading in sweet elliot wave formation. NIFTY is in Currently forming 4th Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Higher bull run as u can notice in the chart. Indicators and Oscillators are trading in overbought zone on daily basis while its flat on weekly basis and bullish on Monthly charts. Bearish engulfing had been witnessed today on nifty daily chart which is suggesting a reversal or consolidation in the current uptrend. So if the NIFTY opens up below 5650 and trades below the same level than go short with stop loss of 5701. Targets on the downside are 5601,5527,5468 and 5408. Profit Booking levels wil be 5585 and 5492 on the slide. So lets c whats the next publicity stunt by Bulls to save their last chance tomorrow..Fingers Crossed 

#137 Nifty Update: Markets Flooded!

Markets were flooded with the news in last 10 days and guess what, this flood was happily accepted by the investors as it was all soooo goood!!! Draghi announcing unlimited bond buying —> German court ruling in favor of ESM—> QE3 by FED —-> FDI in retail. This was the sequence of news which gave confidence to the investors around the world. Technically as i had mentioned in my last post that breakout of the range 5211-5261 will decide the trend further and so was the case. Market made low exactly at 5216 (5211 was downside range brkout) and then broke 5261 on upper side we saw non stop rally to 5650. But as the rule says all the things whether it be news or events or product or technology all has two sides. So is with all of the gud news above. All are wit condition* applied. Taking it one by one 1) Unlimited bond buying is ofcourse a gud thng but it says crisis affect country shld apply for the bailout and such countries have ego problems and thy arent applying for bailout 2) QE3 looks positive but it means printing money whch in return increases inflation over the world and dollar will depreciate against another currencies 4) FDI in retail was cheered by indians bt thy dnt realise tht our brothers and sisters will lose many business in retail. above all the final decision is left to respective state government whether to allow FDI in retail or not. So we can realise tht none of the above gud news are confirmed yet bt chances are tht it wil turn out to be gud. EU nor world wants crisis to unfold so they will save countries by hook or crook. Sentiments amng investors have surely turned positive. Now technically as u can see in above graph market is trending in form of elliot wave principle. A “spin body” formation yesterday with a lower “Doji” today signals some profit booking in the market. As wave four suggest maximum it can come down is 5447 whch in turns fills up the gap too. So strategy on nifty is that we buy for long term whn markets starts sliding below 5500 while short term traders go short with tgt of 5450. NIFTY supports at 5587,5558,5534,5510,5495,5447 resistances at 5632,5658,5676,5701

#136 Nifty Update: "Mission NIFTY 5216 Accomplished"

My post on 23rd Aug titled “Choona na Choona na aab mein overbought ho Gayi” i initiated short on NIFTY at 5420 with various tgts, last being 5216 which was accomplished today.Today NIFTY made a low of 5215.70 jst at my tgt of 5216. This down-slide was accompanied by “Coalgate” scam and weak Manufacturing numbers from Global markets. But to note some +veness in the market is the Retail Sales in US and Europe and the consumer spending index last week. Both has shown some improvement which is gud sign. While on other side Service PMI has also seen some significant grwth bt all are still below 50 level mark signifying recession. Its said whn economy takes a turn around , consumer retail sector leads the recovery. So we can say that consumer confidence is increasing and thts a good sign for the world markets. On other side labour productivity index has increased to 2.2% which is giving a strong base to retail confidence. Labour expense has also increase by 1.5% which inturn gives more purchasing power in hands of retail consumer. The cycle will be once again supplied with money at lower level whch will demand more goods which will affect the profit on companies balance sheet. Fire has been initiated , nw we have to wait for it to spread around the world. Now looking at capital good or heavy equipment markets, Car sales arnd the world has seen reboost growth of almost 10% except in Europe which is also a good sign. Talking about the hot topic EU, it could be saved nxt week and Draghi wld be the hero. He has said tht no limits to Bond purchase bt will surely take care no printing of money. So now lets wait for his plan tomorrow but we are pretty sure he will take step to save EURO.Cutting short my post lets come to technicals. Technically Nifty is in small downside channel but today it has filled up the gap at 5220 which was left unfilled in last rally. Taking into consideration Draghi plan we may see some boost from tomorrow. But NIFTY has traded and closed below 50 EMA today which is at 5261 so is the upside channel line. 100 EMA is at 5211 which is acting as a strong support. So next strategy on NIFTY would be on breakout of range of 5211-5261. Take position in the breakout direction, NIFTY supports at 5211,5198,5181,5160. Resistances at 5261,5291,5306,5332,5360

#135 Nifty Update: NIFTY confirms short term downtrend

As i had mentioned in my last post on 23rd August, strategy was to short at 5420 with stop loss of 5448. NIFTY confirmed the breakout of upside channel by closing third consecutive day below the support line on Friday. My two tgts 5385 and 5357 has been achieved on NIFTY. Coalgate scam is picking up the heat in the parliament. I dont why parliament are not cmng to a solution soon. There many important bills to discuss such as FDI whch could change India”s future and jst discussing coalgate wont change our future. On the other hand it is expiry weak and we are expecting a volatile sessions but profit booking will lead markets to some downtrends. Over the Europe, Consumer confidence has decreased in manufacturing while US has seen recovery in retail conf

idence, home sales and unemployment claims. But eyes are on 9/12 when german court gives its decision over ESM. If its in favor of ESM than we could see new high in the equity markets over the globe. Mr. Draghi is awaiting the decision until whch he is nt expected to declare any plans for buying bonds. Bernake is also unexpected to deliver QE confirmation at Jackson hole on 31st Aug. Therefore markets are expected to trade on technicals next week unless some unseen news arrives. Talking about indicators it has given the sell signal. They were in overbought as i suggested last in post. 50 SMA is at 5250 whch will act as strong support while 100 SMA is at 5216 which is at the level of filling up the gap. Market for the first tym in august closed below short term moving averages whch is also a sign of weakness, Now strategy is to Hold the short initiated last week with trailing stop loss of 5400. Tgts 5330/5306/5285/5260/5240/5216.

#134 Nifty Update: "Choona na choona na Ab main "Overbought" ho gayi

NIFTY singing a song to WARN! long traders. Picture on the chart of NIFTY is abt to get dirtier if we dont see close above 5448 tomorrow. As you can notice the chart, its the same thing as my last post on NIFTY bt only change is addition of 2 latest candles. As we can clearly see that it resisted today exactly at 5448 and thn bounced back to close below 5420 for 3rd consecutive day as mentioned in the chart. Bulls strength is getting weaker and weaker day by day as its nt able to clearly close in tht channel again. One more close below tht channel tomorrow and downside is confirmed. 5448 is strong resistance level tomorrow again as 1) channel boundry line 2) previous rally resistance and 3) 61.8% resistance of last downfall from 6330-4700 (approx). All the indicators are in overbought zone and they are warning as tht NIFTY MIGHT see a turnaround. technically we are sighting downside upto 5220-5240 which is 50% retrenchment of last rally 5032-5448 and also a unfilled gap over there. from PMI numbers of China, Germany and France were announced today and they had improved over previous whch was the sign of recovery in their economy. US unemployment claim is gonna announced soon which could effect the market opening at DOW today. Merkel and Hollande are gonna meet today to discuss abt the easing package for greece. Tomorrow and day after Greece FM gonna meet both Merkel and Hollande on respective days. So this weekend is gonna be eventful. Consumer confidence data for Europe will be announced around 8:00pm which may have lil impact on the markets. Domestically we are not sighting any improvements in politics as we saw 3rd consecutive adjournment at parla session. This is a shame for us as instead of solving issues our govt is running away from it. Monsoon have been pretty good while inflation has eased so thts a gud sign for our economy. Now coming back to stock markets, if the global data to be announced later today are way above expectation thn we may see some rally but if at par with expctation or below thn we may see some profit booking in markets. My strategy on #nifty:
Sell NIFTY CMP with Stop loss of 5460 (Closing basis) tgts 5385/5357/5330/5306/5385/5260/5240/5216