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#133 Nifty Update: "NFS": NIFTY For Speed

NFS means “Need for Speed” for gamers but for traders in India today it means “Nifty for Speed”. Yesterday i posted and mentioned about the breakout of NIFTY on the downside channel. But today nifty didnt confirm the breakout and was back on track. As it happens it Need for Speed game whn ur car is off track and there are 50-50 chances of coming back on track so was the case here but NIFTY was back on track to speed up with other global markets equally. NIFTY came back to upward channel back today successfully. All the indicators are still in overbought position so i wont initiate a long call yet and Short position stop loss has been triggered. 5448-5450 is the strong resistance. NIFTY has resisted near tht level many times before and its the strong retrechment level of 61.8% of the last downfall. So my View is to stay HOLD and wait for 5450 to breach.

#132 Nifty Update: "Grey Friday"

Confused? Why Grey Friday?..Generally we gve names like Black Friday (Terriost attack), Black Monday (Stock market lower circuit 2004).. thn why not name “Grey” to days to whch we have seen some bearish breakouts or bearish news too. On my view to name it we can name 17th August as GREY Friday for 2 reasons one funda and one technical each.1) CAG report was tabled in parliament which stated scam of Rs.1.85lakh crores. 2)Upside channel was broken. Elaborating fundamental reason of CAG, i m of view that it is the biggest shame to Indian politics or to be specific UPA government. Just imagine if that Rs.1.85 lakh crores wld have gone to Indian govt than m sure tht we cld have been ahead or atleast at par with China economy last decade. Pvt group named in report such as JIndal, Tata , Reliance (ADAG)etc. are gonna be hard hit fundamentally if this is case is gvn fair result. More funda news this weekend were that Oil ministry is planning to raise Petrol prices by Rs.3, Diesel by Rs.4-5 and Cooking gas by Rs.50-100. This hike may come after 7 Sept when parilaments monsoon season closes. Globally Sept 12th is the deciding day for the German govt as the case hearing is on same day. RBI policy is on 17th Sept and rate hike is to be considered after new inflation numbers. July inflation has improved but due to deficit monsoon august may seen inflation bouncing back at higher levels so we might have to weight and watch. Now coming to technical we have seen a upside channel breakout friday in the court of bears. As you all could notice that market has exactly stopped arnd the support line of channel. Even friday’s closing has given a DOJI on chart signalling a Pause to previous trend (nxt trnd could be any). Why am i saying this to be important breakout is because markets had taken support of the channel line for 6th time and then it lost the battle. Now tomorrows opening will decide the trend. If the markets open below 5366 or closes below 5384 the downside could be confirmed. Upside is capped at 5390 for time being. On downside we may see 5220. So my current call is Short :NIFTY at CMP. Stop loss: 5390 tgts 5306/5285/5265/5220

#131 Nifty Update: NIFTY trading steeply on the charts

As you can notice in the chart, NIFTY has been trading in the steep upside channel. In my lost post i did initiate the Long call on the NIFTY near to 5330. My call is active but it has got lil bitter today. NIFTY closed at 5362 below the important resistance level but it has just managed to close above the supporting channel line. Technically speaking indicators are flat which indicates a consolidation phase ahead of a strong rally on either side. We could be more bias on positive side for long run has monthly chart has give a good breakout above 5280…So tomorrows closing will be important to decide the short term run ahead as long term we are positive if the august close is above 5280. We cannot decide until the august close that we have got a long or short call on nifty. Checking out daily chart keep three things in Mind 1) Tomorrow close above 5380 will keep my long call active on NIFTY if Not 2)Close below 5380 means strong support at 5342 and 5328. Keep a stop loss to my initiated long call at 5308..Risk takers can keep a stop loss at 5270.

#130 Nifty Update: EK THA BEAR"…This time he fights for His love (Bull)

So u all must be waiting for the Salman’s “Ek tha Tiger”, bt traders just watched today “Ek tha Bear”. We still dont know what the story gonna be of “EK tha Tiger” but its gonna be love story m sure. We can predict the love story of Bears ♥ Bulls. Today bear sacrificed herself for bulls and we show Bull gaining control above 5330 which was the strong resistance level 5 SMA. Bull equally loves bears so we show range bound movement between the 2 at 5307-5330 levels. Still we cannot confirm the long term trend as both are strong bounded to each other. They need their parents i.e., fundamental or political reasons to seperate them and get the confirmed long term move on either side. Reading the charts on daily basis we are in the strong upward channel and NIFTY exactly bounced back from lower bottom channel today at 5309 level. All the indicators were at the mid-way until yesterday bt they slightly pointed themselves to the upside direction today on back of positive europe market openings. Globally, Fundamentals are getting more weaker. “Rio Tinto” one of the leading mining company from australia posted 34% drop in balance sheet for 1st half as it witnessed 22% drop in demand for its material from china. Now this is what i call a sign of weakness. China was believed to be stable last year as its industry was producing bt nw we may see downfall as now its storage capacity has also been utilised as no demand of their products worldwide. Even “SHARP” which was the leading manufacturers of LCD in Japan has seen 50% drop in sales on YoY basis. US has seen a increase in employment but an article suggested that Obama has tripled to govt hiring which may have infused numbers. Analyst are in view tht Europe will be back in growth after 2014 as it was in pre-fall dwn times. But 2 good news from asia 1) Indonesia grew at 6.4% for 1st half. It is the leading economy is south east 2) Japan airways is planning to re-list it shares and that wld be the biggest issue in asia this yr with issue size of $2-3billion. So we are seeing sme recoveries globally bt developed countries are gtting weaker day by day. So long term picture nt clear on global side.

Technically speaking nifty has a gap downside 5260-5216 but all the indicators and breakout today suggest upside move. NIFTY has closed above all the short term and long term moving averages after long time. Tomorrows opening would be of much relevance. We may see markets cruising to 5450 levels above which we may see long bull run. So strategy is to be long on NIFTY with tgts of 5380/5420/5450 stop loss 5310.

‎#129 Nifty Update: "Zara Zara Touch me touch me touch me"

No guys am nt dreaming of Katrina Kaif touching me (as m engaged now :P) but its just that song relates to NIFTY’s trading range since last 2 weeks. As you could notice in the chart, closing has been volatile between bulls and bears…Bulls(Blue moving averages) and bears (downside channel support) are playing tug-of-war but NIFTY is nt able to decide is partner and its just “touching” the either range and bouncing back to other partner. You could be more bias towards bears as you can notice that downside channel has been broken almost 4 times which gives a hint. But “Bhav bhagwan che” so nothing is 100% sure. We have got 4 consecutive close below my “TRIMURTI” (50-100-200EMA) which is a sign of more downside. Talked too much about the bear side, for bull side all the indicators are in oversold zone which means chances are that we may see short covering but that may be maximum upto 5125-5200. Taking in consideration Weekly and Monthly timeline we are still negative on indicators. So every opportunity is to go short with stop los 5300. My call to go short is still intact.

Add Shorts below 5070 to call initiate at 5145 or Fresh shorts at 5200 if we see upside with sl of 5260
Book partial profit at 4980 on downside.

#128 Nifty Update: NIFTY less volatile in performance than Indian Cricket team.

“BULL Shit”…”F*** off”….Blah Blah is what you couldnt have controlled after watching india’s performance at the 2cd ODI vs Sri Lanka. India’s batting performance range was vast from 314-138 so is NIFTY’s range from 4903-5317. On last friday i did recommend to Sell Below 5145 and we almost got 45 points on board in 2 days. Nothing has changed fundamentally except that pranab mukherjee is our new president. Anna Team is opposing but i dont think it will have much affect on the decision. Market reacted negatively on monday opening to RIL’s weak performance. But technically i have found a “acute triangle” on monthly chart which is a sign of consolidation. If you have been trading actively in market , you might have been bored of hearing from operators that NIFTY’s range is getting narrower that is what actually a acute triangle/symmetric triangle is in technically terms. You could notice in the adjoining graph what exactly triangle looks like.. Whats the implications??? It means when the triangle breaks on the either side on closing basis, it defines the trend of market. Right now, taking broader picture, we are in consolidation phase or say in-decisive phase on monthly chart. July’s breakout range is 4905-5317 while august range is 4952-5265. So long term traders wait for the breakout of either level. Just for an we have closed with a Doji and market has taken support around 5103 on last 2 days which is a 200 SMA. So if we see markets opening above 5130 and closing above that level tomorrow then we may see short term recovery but blindly go short below 5102. This thursday being expiry be cautious in trading…Cya guys…

#127 Nifty Update: Even NIFTY got a new "Narrow Fit Channel" from the "Candles Mall"

I am pretty sure that you guys would have got atleast one Narrow Fit jeans from a Levis store on its on going 40% flat discount so does have NIFTY but it got from a Japanese Candle mall… As you guys can notice in the chart above NIFTY gave a breakout to the existing channel which i mentioned in my post last week. The new channel last week has been a Narrow one which means a volatile sessions ahead but within a specified range until it breaks out. Last post i mentioned that it was cocktail on NIFTY chart with bears and bulls with eqial chances but i guess now bears have more chance of winning the game. RIL posted its numbers last eve after the market hours which beats streets poll/estimates but comparing YoY it has been down by 21% which is a big loss to indian industry leader. IT industry gave poor guidance for the next quarter while banking industry is posting gud performance. Government is planning to pass FDI pretty soon. But i guess our government is just a “Bol Bachchan”..SInce long we are hearing from government that they are working but we are not getting any results. On other hand Spain got a bailout yesterday but european markets have reacted negatively and am sure thats true because people are printing money which will create inflation in the world. So overall we may see some downside in the market in coming week. Technically speaking all the indicators have shown weakness on the chart. We may witness a volatile session in coming days because last time when we witnessed all 3 moving averages converging at one point, nifty had witnessed 250 points downside in 3 days. NIFTY’s range for next week is 5165-5225. Breakout of either level on closing basis will decide the trend further. My strategy for next week is go Short below 5165 while go long above 5227.

#126 Nifty Update: "COCKTAIL" of signals on NIFTY Chart

Again a Bollywood connection of NIFTY this week with Saif’s movie “Cocktail”. I havent seen the movie yet but from the trailer i could make out that Saif is friend with both of them and at last he has to choose from either Diana or Deepika… Same is the case with the chart abv..In this case Saif is NIFTY and Deepika and Diana are Bear and Bull… Saif (nifty) in our case is confused at this stage that whom to choose. Currently NIFTY is trading in the minor trends upward channel while its in Major downside channel, one gap above upto 5300 while another gap at 5170 on downside and its trading above all the long term moving averages while it gave false breakout of FLAG pattern. So its all Hoch-Poch on the nifty side technically. You might be questioning why is that thick resistance line drawn below few candles?? But you may notice that all the close are at the Line so the line is valid and secondly 2 candles have given a marginal close above the line but the next day again it closed at the line so breakout is not confirmed. Fundamentally, we say many events last week starting with INFOSYS worst performance last quarter and better performance from TCS. IIP numbers has improved MoM. Inflation number next week will  also be reflected on the next week move. Internationally we have seen same mixed news last week. Jobless claim has decreased in US but LIBOR scandal is taking heat in media and it is expected to cost $20billion to banking industry if it is solved. So it was all a “Cocktail” last week in the markets around the world. Now what further on the NIFTY?? Technically speaking NIFTY should follow that small upward channel… Be long on NIFTY with stop loss of 5200…Upside resistance is at 5370 ….Speed breaker resistance at 5280,5327.. Strategy Take a long position with stop loss of 5200 and Go Short below 5160.

#125 Nifty Update: 70 points rain cools off all traders

NIFTY had been range bound last week between 5280-5327 which was considered to be consolidation phase. NIFTY has confirmed the flag pattern breakout on charts today which is considered to be bullish for near term. Fundamentally we have not received any cheering news for the traders but this rally is purely technical or investors are anticipating good news in coming weeks. Partial mining rights are given in karnataka’s ban which was lil thing to cheer but no FDI investing allowed is still a inflow problem which is depreciating rupee against all foreign currency. Globally something to cheer was that spanish banks have got bailout but on other side we are witnessing scams in LIBOR rate. Many american banks have started submitting their “Wills” which clarifies what shareholders and clients get if they go bankrupt. While Europe’s PMI number is still below 50 level signifying a downturn. Germany posted worst numbers for manufacturing in last three years. Accumulating all the fundamentals bears have more chances of winning. Coming to NIFTY technicals we have witnessed a Flag breakout which gives the target of 5425 but we have to speed breakers before that. 5360 is the strong level on weekly chart on closing basis which means this weeks close should be above 5360 while daily chart has 5384 has strong level for this week. Now all depends on few key data this week such as HDFC result tomorrow and INFY , TCS ans IIP Data on day after. So my call is HOLD your longs and add positions above 5360 and on downside exit positions below 5280.

#124 Nifty Update: NIFTY Pulling up its Summer "shorts"

Its the summer time and Shorts are in trending on the youths while traders are trending with NIFTY’s short covering. Yesterday we show a reversal pattern “Morning Star” (circled in graph) which is a sign to an end of bears and start of bulls. After long time NIFTY has closed above short term moving averages (Yellow-5SMA , Green 10SMA) which is also a sign for some bullishness on markets. Indicators on daily chart are highly oversold which may also bring some upside movement. Why am i calling it Short covering and not bull run?? Its because fundamentally we dont have any good news factoring in nor bad news , its just traders are gonna cover their shorts next week due to expiry. Petrol Price hike was a good news for OMC’s which was the reason for the upside move in oil stocks in last two days. Listed Companies are positing mixed results within the same sector. We dont have any major event lined up next week so we may go long for a week with stock specfic.

On weekly chart market has closed exactly at resistance point and its important for market to open positive and remain above 4936 for nxt week. Next Thursday being last day of the month, it is also imp for us to look on monthly chart. Monthly chart is said to be in bullish mood since february this year. If market closes above 4900 nxt thursday then we can be bullish on NIFTY based on monthly chart.

Strategy: As i mentioned in my last post that people should keep a stop loss on shorts at 4936 and we achieved that point on NIFTY today. Now risk takers can go long the NIFTY at CMP with tgts of 4975,5030,5090 where as safe traders go long only above 5170 which is considered to be boundary line for short covering.