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#17 Stock Update

Stock recommendations:-
1. I recommend to buy HINDALCO with Stop loss of 147 tgt-169/176
2. I recommend to buy ICICI Bank with Stop loss of 876 tgt-914/924/963
3. I recommend to buy SBIN with SL of 1940 tgt 2086/2125/2197
4. I recommend to Buy Reliance with Stop Loss of 767 tgt 870/894

Disclaimer: Please Keep Strict stop loss due to volatile market. And this our Delivery Base Calls and not intraday

#88 Nifty Update

That was a whooping 90 points unbeaten by NIFTY!!!! Why unbeaten?? Just because it never went in red today.NIFTY closed at 5124 up 60 points. Around 11am there was a blast neat Delhi High Court!! Sorry for the families who lost they loved ones. But terrorist are also advancing as BMW is a suspected for the blast!! We should unite and fight with terrorism. Banking sector has been in the focus of investor this month because of 2 reasons 1). 16 Sept is the RBI policy 2) Its the most beaten segment in this downfall and valuation are attractive as they are cheaper. If you read newspaper these days you will find only 2 sector in  focus i.e., Banking and Steel. RBI is planning to reduce SLR to help industries buy more credit from the banks to push the growth in economy. While they have also asked banks not to charge on prepayment of loans which are on floating rates. This move will be sigh of relief for middle-class economy. Government official are also worried about fiscal deficit this year to increase with respect to GDP. Last year it was around 5.3% of the GDP while for first quarter this year it has reached 1.8%. Officials says last year 3G bid had reduced deficit to large extent which will be hurt this year while  they say Direct tax refund was the major cause of high deficit in first quarter. Talking about DLF which has seen erosion of 29% of its market cap since Jan, it is expected to erode more further. It has been charged penalty by CCI of Rs.630 crore while more complains have been lodged against the company which might lead to more penalties. All brokerage houses have downgraded DLF with tgt price of 177.On other side M&M is outperforming market and its rival on high rural sales and diversified product porfolio. They have major chunk of revenue from tractors and its expected that sales will rise due to good monsoon. There was a new development in bid for Afghan mines which stated that Indian consortium lead my SAIL has in total bid for 4 mines in afghan. If won this would be biggest bid won by indian company and it will lead to growth of steel industry. For foreign markets both US and Europe thursday is the deciding day. Obama is going to speak about future job plans which is a major concern while EU and ECB are going to announce measure to save them from crisis. So people be cautious on thursday. Just for gadget lovers, Research in Motion (RIM-Blackberry) has been facing tough competition from Anroid and Apple in North America making investor of company rethinking of their Stake. Technically speaking NIFTY has again closed at important level of 5126. RSI and MACD are showing short term rally. But watch for 5205/5210 level because it is major resistance.. Why?? Firstly, it is the 33.33% retrenchment from the low with respective to 2cd top 6178 on downward sloping resistance line..Secondly, Inverted head and shoulder is forming which has a neckline at 5209 with left shoulder at 4945. So guys trade accordingly. You may once book partial profit at 5209 on my NIFTY longs and buy again at lower levels or can re-buy after bull confirmation. 
NIFTY levels for 8th September:-
R-5153                  S-5111
R-5188                  S-5092
R-5209                  S-5064
R-5230                  S-5030

#87 Nifty Update

Child in an amusement park and Trader in stock market both have the same feeling!!! Have you experienced TORA-TORA ride in a park as a child??? Same feeling was with NIFTY traders today…Up-Deep down- Up- Down- zooooooooooming up!! NIFTY opened at 4993 then showed a deep fall at 4943 then we came to 5000 which trader thought was a resistance but again it bounced to 5072 after a small correction to 4970. NIFTY outperformed other asian markets and closed up at 5064 which was my mentioned resistance yesterday. IT sector was the most that bleed in last 2 session majorly due to downgrade of IT sector giants by Citi group and other rating houses. This is due to their major exposure to US and European countries which are facing recession at present. An interesting article in a leading magazine quotes CBO’s (Congressional Budget Office-a leading economic advisory committee USA) saying that if USA wanna lead its economic run at current GDP then it need to maintain ratio of 8.6% of Budget to GDP which comes out to spending cut of $15 trillion against what actually they have proposed at $2.4trillion. I think the Obama is in biggest trouble. This is was the highest budget deficit after the second world war. So you can imagine how trouble is US economy in?? But a common question arises that why asians are more affected??? There is a simple statistics that can answer that…US in total have $4.15 trillion currency treasuries of which more than 50% is held by asian countries with china leading (around $ 1.4 trillion). Therefore if Dollar tumble’s all asia will be affected. Now you would ask then why would whole world other than asian affected??…another statistics says that 66 countries other than Europe and Asia peg their currency against dollars or decide exchange rate on dollars. So now all eyes around the world is on one man and that is you MR.OBAMA.. Kindly save us!!! Increase your tax rates or decrease your spending. European Central Bank has also pleaded EU to meet soon and bailout greece otherwise inflation and lending rates will surge to uncontrollable level. One of the Interesting thing i read about Beijing was they have limited the numbers of new car registration per month..That should be even implemented in india to control pollution and traffic. Domestically PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) was out yesterday. It was at lowest level at 53.8 for august against 58.2 in July. This index suggest the orders of raw material by any firm (if i am wrong plz correct me). So this means manufacturing may further decline in coming months. In banking sector ICICI bank and HDFC has introduced “fixed rate” housing loans which means you can fix ur rate of interest for first few years and then floating rate will be applied.. I think this is a good move. On other hand Brokerage houses are looking to capture foreign brokerage as domestic margins are under pressure and volumes are declining . Stock specfic i would suggest to avoid BHEL in-spite of high order books they are coming with a FPO and it is expected to be below CMP so dont take any longs on thte stock. Technically speaking market took a strong support at 4945 which i mentioned yesterday and it has closed exactly at 5064 level which is strong resistance. Tomorrow early hours of trading will decide NIFTY’s move. But i m still bullish for short rally and still suggest you to buy with strict SL.
NIFTY levels for 7th September:-
R-5092                  S-5036
R-5112                  S-5017
R-5127                  S-4994
R-5188                  S-4956

#86 Nifty Update

NIFTY was an odd one out today but for 1st time on positive side. All the US and Europe market together with Asian Markets were in a sharp decline on weak job data in US on Friday making sentiments bearish but NIFTY just closed 22 points down to 5017. Today which had listing of Brooks lab which was trading 30% in opening hours but then we saw the stock at 25% in red making total movement of 60%. This makes us say that never trade on listing day. Reliance capital was booming on high expectation from its new venture with Nippon which is yet to finalize. This will boost Rel cap insurance market. On the other side Hero and Bajaj-auto were moving against the market index on the base of good 2 wheelers says figures last month and it is expected to be better this month on account of festival. One of the interesting data was sent by CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy) that earlier they had forecasted 34.5% growth in profits of manufacturing sector in month of sept but now due to Petroleum products high cost they have revised it to decrease in profit rather rise by 5.7%. Now that will be making each investor shocked. But let’s wait and watch for the actual numbers next month. Taking about Air India which people say is digging loss for govt declared that for the first time ever since 2007 they made small cash profit on the route to US. One of the interesting figure was that in month of July Indian companies in total raised USD 3.67 Billion through FCCB and ECB with reliance being sole raise of USD 1.6Billion.. Now thats what we call emerging market. In-spite of such a global melt down people are investing in India which means they are bullish on Indian Companies on long run. Talking about NHAI, its a best example of slow mover. A plan was passed in 2002 to construct NS-EW corridor with a repeated deadlines of 2007,2009, 2010 but whats the progress?? Still they haven’t acquired 30% of land. How do you expect us to grow?? I think contracts should be given to private companies which will do work faster than them. US markets are closed today on account of Labor day so we might not see much movement tomorrow in opening hours. Europe are down by4% but it couldnt move our indian markets. Techincally speaking market is going to take strong support ay 4965,4942 and 4900 levels. RSI is yet on bullish side but we may see resistance at 5060 and 5127. Hope you all entered long on NIFTY near to 4965-4990 levels as i mentioned in last report. I still recommend buy NIFTY on Dips.
NIFTY levels for 6th September:-
R-5060                  S-4990
R-5096                  S-4965
R-5127                  S-4945
R-5180                  S-4882

#85 Nifty Update

Third consecutive win for the market!!!! NIFTY closed at 5040 plus 39 after open almost 100 points up in pre open session. Market was closed for last two days but 2 important figures were announced which were Auto Sales and Food Inflation. Food inflation came out to be in double digit at 10.08 vs 9.80% last week. While Sales figure were again a disappointment on YoY basis for Tata motors and Maruti but TVS saw a growth of 14%. Everon Education saw a 20% lower circuit on arrest of its MD. ONGC is likely to come with FPO this month. TATA motors is going to split its share from Rs.10 to rs.2 from 13th September so make a note of that. Have you heard about SMSgupshup?? It is one of the social networking sites by an Indian which is giving a tough competition to FB and LinkedIn. Its obviously different from other social networking but it has a great potential ahead. Another example in which a world leader was beaten by its competitor in no time is of FedEx and DHL. An interesting story says that Fed Ex took DHL in india very lightly and they lost the battle. DHL with Blue dart have around 400 branches over the country while FedEx has just around 150-200 branches. So that was a lesson learnt by FEDex.. Never under estimate small competitors. So is India. Hope we are not underestimated because we have the largest retail customer base. World markets had seen two days rally but again on weak economic date in US we may expect some pressure on Monday. What US need is some Job opportunities and people are expecting Obama to launch some boosting report for Jobs. Motorola is going to be acquired by Google for $12 billion which will make a stiff competition for companies such as Apple and Samsung. Technically speaking NIFTY is in bullish mood with RSI and Stochastic supporting them. We may expect some dip on Monday and I recommend to buy NIFTY on Dips.
NIFTY levels for 5th September:-
R-5060                  S-4965
R-5096                  S-4935
R-5127                  S-4882
R-5233                  S-4832

#84 Nifty Update

Double scoop Icing!!!! NIFTY gave a consecutive mega close of 81 points up to 5001. Initially market opened gap up to 4990 and then we saw some pressure ahead of GDP numbers. GDP number came at 7.7% vs 9.3% same quarter a year before but it was just above expectation of 7.6% by CNBC. Manufacturing and Mining were the beating sector while agriculture and Service Industry backed them a little. People took GDP numbers positively and expect them to be better in next quarter with better economy condition over the world. Yesterday RBI announced guidelines for new private sector banks. Many points in the draft was that only NBFC and Private sector Institute can get license, Should not have more than 10% exposure to real estate and broking, minimum capital of rs500 crore and Foreign stake restricted to 49%. Still these norms are open for suggestion. RBI also tightened the existing norms of NBFC’s. It also advice state run banks to restructure loans of MSME which will be a hole in profit for such banks as loan holders are beneficiary. Maruti is again in news for same reason of strike. Workers have gone on strike as company as them to sign discipline bond. This will hamper the production of newly launched maruti swift production. India is going to sit next with EU at Brussels to modify foreign trade treat. EU is the biggest partner for trade but still we have failed to come to a decision since last 4 meets. Hope its solved this time or else we need Anna Hazare again ;). Food Subsidy is to raise to 1 trillion rupees..Ghosh!! Government is taking this step just to avoid bad stock…why dont they open exports limits rather than free distribution unnecessarily??? Coming to Europe, 2 banks of Greece have merged which is a crucial step to fight against crisis. Hope this wil bring some stability in the economy. Another Europe country, germany says that they are short of engineers as stated by Porsche and BMW. they are planning to hire in all around 70000 engineers. So all my engineer friends learn german and prepare for germany. On commodity side gold has witnessed a profit booking and people are investing in risk assets like oil on expectations of world recovery. Technically speaking market gave a blasting close of mental level of 5000. It closed above 7 and 14 EMA. MACD, Stochastic and RSI have confirmed Bullish crossover. NIFTY took support around 4935 (4927) as i stated and i wish you all got 5000 call, if not get it on friday on dips as Market is closed for 2 days.      
NIFTY levels for 2cd September:-
R-5050                  S-4965
R-5096                  S-4935
R-5127                  S-4882
R-5233                  S-4832

#83 Nifty Update

WHERE’s the PARTY Tonight???? NIFTY boomed like a F1 Mcleran at 171 points to close at 4919. QE 3 was not declared by Bernake on Friday which was positively taken by all the markets over the world and which was one of the driving factors to nifty’s dashing mood today. Anna hazare’s partial victory over parliament was also a reason for NIFTY to have a big smile. This financial year has witnessed high inflation throughout and retail sector is most affected. Indian commerce ministry has witnessed a decline in demand for Indian goods so they are looking forward to tie up more bilateral trade contracts with Latin America countries such as Costa rica and 6 more countries. Retail sector companies such as Pantaloon and Shopper Stops are going through margin pressure because due to Inflation property rentals have gone up and have seen decline in sales as middle class is the most affected with inflation. So short term investors with horizon of 3-5 months avoid retail stocks. But retail traveling agency’s have seen a good growth. Online travel queries have increased by 59% and Mobile Traveling queries by 250% in last one year as reported by Google India. Many online travel agents have also started offline channel sales. Therefore we can see a good growth in traveling segment in next decade because India is growing tremendously with internet user’s number and we will surely see exponential growth in Online travels. One of the U-Turn to 2G case was for UNITECH and RCOM today. CBI clearly gives a clean chit to UNITECH stating that they didn’t found any money trail while RCOM 3 officials are said to have been clear in the case. Now you may see a upside rally in both the stock and i recommend to buy them with 52 week low as a SL. Coming to NIFTY technical , today’s rally gave a strong close above 200 Weekly level which it breached last week. Daily RSI and Stochastic have given a confirmed bullish crossover while MACD is yet to confirm. Now we can surely wait for that unfilled gap at 5230 level. Hope you all holding 5300 CE…And risk take tomorrow can buy 5000CE of October expiry..but keep a Stop loss of 4790 of NIFTY cash
                                    
NIFTY levels for 30th August:-
R-4961                  S-4878
R-4983                  S-4825
R-5020                  S-4808
R-5080                  S-4790

#82 Nifty Update

Phewwww!!!! Bored and fed up with market. Market opened flat and then showed some bull power but couldnt withstand much and then fell like a loose motion which cannot be stopped even if u want to. NIFTY closed at 4747 down 91 points. Biggest blow to US corporate was resigning of Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple. Tim cook will take over position but steve mentioned that he will be still available for creativity for the company so thats a relief for Apple lovers. Today we have FED meeting around 7:30 pm and if bernake announces some stimulus for the economy then u may see markets rallying high and downside in gold prices. Day before yesterday, Worlds best trader, Warren Buffet purchased stake in Bank of America for around $3.5billion which in a day rose to $5billion as investors took it positively. This is a good deal as warren will get preferential dividend at 6%. US jobless data were out yesterday which claimed more unemployment which suggest weak job security in US. Coming to India and Anna Hazare, government late eve yesterday had decided to discuss jan lok pal bill in parliament and they did today but no significant outcome till right now. Coal india is going to replace Reliance capital in NIFTY 50 Stocks from October. This came as a blow to ADAG group. Whereas ONGC and RIL are fighting for the place of largest company by market cap in NIFTY. Talking about auto segment we have seen a rally in almost all including Heromotocorp, bajaj-auto , M&M but TATA Motors is been beaten up. Morgan Stanley has downgraded tata motors even at CMP so avoid position in this stock. One more mega deal is gonna be sign between GVK and Hancock Australia for purchasing 2 australian mines for USD 2.2 Billion which is gonna be funded by Standard chartered, ICICI and Axis. Technically speaking NIFTY is digging deep in oversold zone. NIFTY for the first time closed below 200 Weekly average since 2009 which can be a bearish sign. NIFTY long stop loss has been triggered but hold 5300 CE as you never know what will Bernake produce tonight. 
NIFTY levels for 29th August:-
R-4796                  S-4722
R-4830                  S-4682
R-4882                  S-4639
R-4936                  S-4600

#81 Nifty Update

GOLMAAL 4 has been released but this time director is not Rohit Shetty but its SEBI and FII and star cast is BSE and NIFTY. Indian market are trading opposite to global trend. All the global markets are recovering their losses which they made since 20th July but we are deepening our losses. NIFTY opened positive but then showed some downside to close 49 points down to 4839. Now people in US and Europe are confident enough of their stock markets. This could be noticed because since last 2 trading session equity markets have rallied 5% while gold have lost $200 from its life time high on tuesday. Gold has seen heavy profit booking in physical market as well as trading platform. COMEX has increased gold margins to around 27% which is one of the reason of correction in gold prices. Crude price is expected to have a stability as Libya problem is solved and its expected to produce 300000 barrels /day by this year end. Banking stocks have seen a downfall in US but durable goods market has seen boost in demand which has brought back confidence amongst investors and they are re-positioning themselves in stock markets. NIFTY had its expiry today and it was expected that it will have a short covering with the support of global cues but NIFTY is odd one out and it declined. Coal India had received environmental ban at its 22 mines in Jharkhand yesterday but they claim they havent received any letter till date and have continued their production at the mines. One of the burning issue in indian corporate world right now is banking license. PFC and REC is also planning to enter banking sector. Analyst have raised the question that can this 2 or companies like SREI are eligible for license? All this small companies are not even performing their existing business properly. Coming to IDR’s…(indian depository receipts) They have not been able to attract foreign corporates because there doesnt exist two way fungiblity option. Only Standard Chartered had issued IDR last year but that too is trading 42% down from Issue price. SEBI and IRDA are planning to revise norms to attract more foreign entities. On other hand Foreign loans are getting cheaper for indian corporates but due to shortage of dollars in market it has been difficult at present to raise foreign funds. One more interesting news were about DCHL (deccan chronicle) who completed buyback of shares yesterday and it was biggest ever in Indian Stock market history. Technically speaking all the NIFTY indicators are hovering just above oversold zone. I am feeling that market is consolidating at current levels. No major pattern has been seen in recent sessions. I still feel that gap at 5300 will be soon filled so i stick to my strategy of holding NIFTY with SL of 4780.
NIFTY levels for 26th August:-
R-4862                  S-4810
R-4890                  S-4770
R-4935                  S-4750
R-4976                  S-4700

#80 Nifty Update

SHOCKER!!!! During rains when you slip on floor all of a sudden due to wet floor same was with NIFTY, as sentiments are bearish but global markets were positive last night and so we thought NIFTY would be controlled by bull which didnt happen. NIFTY closed at 4889 down by 60 points. US is still recovering on people’s belief that Bernake will publish out some good policy on economist meet on 26th of August and Europe is too choppy as its still fighting its wounds over greece debt crisis. Japan Debt is downgraded to AA3 by Moody as they worry on economy recovery. Later this week RBI is going to announce norms for new private sectors banks to operate in India but they were still cautious and have asked government to change some norms in Banking Act as there are many loopholes and they fear that this companies will use funds in self dealing with their group companies. SREI Infra, Reliagre, Reliance Capital , TATA Capital are few from the list who might get license for the Banking operations. Today COAL india was in news as they have been accused of violation of mining in 21 ores but the official from company  claimed on CNBC that production on Mining havent closed annywhere. IF they are proved to be accused then it may be a major setback for Coal India’s future and credit worth as they had overtook Reliance as highest Market Cap in Stock market on 17th August. Coal India wagers have demanded 100% wage hike which might erode companies complete net profit for next quarter. TATA steel has withdrawn themselves form Consortium led by SAIL to bid for 1.8 MT iron ore in Afghanistan but they might rethink on its decision as said by officials. GVK is planning to raise its stake in Banglore and Mumbai international airports which analyst says is a good decision for the company. Techincally speaking market is in a biased modd and could move either way. tomorrow being expiry we might see some short covering at the end of the day. I still recommend to hold NIFTY with SL of 4750.
NIFTY levels for 25th August:-
R-4905                  S-4842
R-4932                  S-4807
R-4975                  S-4750
R-5015                  S-4700