Author Archives: Kush Ghodasara

Nervous close but high might not be the end

Nifty as expected gave a master blaster start above 7900 and pinched new high which is at 7940 but than we closed nervously around 7890 with a gravestone doji on daily charts. After a last 30 mins furious sell-off on index, traders on D-street have started targeting nifty 7500?  I mean how insane is that ? a minor knee-jerk reaction cannot shatter upside targets which  were activated yesterday after a good move on daily charts. I am sure you all would ask me that  “gravestone doji”  is clear sign of weakness but guys remember there could be rare exceptions to it and this could be one of it. Why? Because today’s high 7940 was not target or resistance by any methods of projections or wave’s as per me prior to this day. Secondly, weekly charts are yet not showing or confirming any signs of weakness. So i am not sounding over confidence but just trusting my prior analysis and as it said u shouldnt consider a complete reversal unless target or stop loss is not triggered. And if i try to consider a fibonacci correction of last small rally than best buy tomorrow could be in the range of 7840-7870 for a btst call so buy on dips. While my activated target is 8055 and my trailing Stop loss should be 7740 you should always be hedged and take decision at your risk

 

 

Nifty could kick start a 200 points rally tomorrow!

After a volatile profit booking in last two weeks, we could now kick start a rally tomorrow on Nifty index. As i had been mentioning 7777 as crucial level, today we did breach it for few seconds but we have maintained it as support on closing basis and still remains further. On weekly chart that level is now trend line support of previous downside channel. Now talking about some chart patterns, as of now it seems that we completed 2 cd Wave correction of flat today. Now we if we cross 7909 which was high of wave b in 2nd wave then a 200 points rally could be confirmed from there to 8100. Even the indicators have crossed over positive for a confirmation to our view but its always safe to be hedged. 7700 PE should be bought to hegde by long recommendation given in previous two post which has targets of 8055. Lets hope we get confirmation tomorrow.

 

Nifty reached my Pit stop of 7909!

Finally Nifty has showed path to my destination 8265 by achieving my first tgt of 7909 which was even 50 WSMA resistance.  Though indicators on daily charts are on overbought zone but they have given Bullish Crossover internally to signal short term positive momentum. Todays move would be further fueled with CPI and IIP announced today. Markets have been also in confidence because of good earnings posted by front line stocks. Technically, as per Elliot wave calculations 8055 should be minimum we to be achieved in this expiry. Weekly chart indicators are showing good momentum for the upside and its trading above downward sloping channel of last one year. To summarize, Nifty is currently “King of Good times”. Strategy would now raise SL to 7780 from 7690 and target remains same at 8055

 

 

Todays Trade has alot to say!

Just yesterday i talked above 8000+ levels on Nifty and today opening trade would have given a nightmare to most of you but those who took this as a opportunity as a trade on my recommendation, Hats off!  You might have even read on my post that i mentioned above a minor profit booking anytime and today was that day. As per my calculation if we trade above 7909 which is yesterdays high than we can get to 8100 pretty soon. On the downside, today we pinched low exactly at 200 day SMA at 7780 which should act as support confirmation. So for a new trade you must keep in mind range of 7780-7900 beyond which you can take trade accordingly. Though i am still biased for a long trade.!!!

Nifty approaches Minor Wave Resistance

Most of you would have felt that today was a boring day but technically Nifty has been approaching Resistance zone of 7909 which is why we have slowed down a bit. Though thats  just my  first target but still we need to be cautious around the level because today we have a got a Spinning top on daily chart as marked by arrow. Even if we see a profit booking tomorrow, it would just be a minor one to last two days rally as 7700 is now finding strong base on options side where PUTS are being written down. Secondly, we have may crucial support reason in the range of 7669-7690 as i have mentioned on chart which would let Nifty go below the range. Even the Elliot wave is in tune and we could see minimum 8265 before breaching 7669 anytime soon. But for near term my targets are the same as mentioned yesterday. 7909/8050.  

Bull’s ride on D-Street

Until Thursday close i was sure about Nifty strategy of buying on dips but friday’s volatile session had ended up everyone in confusion. But as i mentioned on that day, we should still be bias on Buying on dips and today’s close has cleared all confusion on Nifty index. As you all can notice in graph, we have close above 200 day SMA which was at 7777 which gives us a confirmation for the rally ahead. Secondly, we have close above 7836 which was the resistance line on Weekly chart adding booster to Bull ride. Now talking further on Elliot wave, it is almost confirmed that we have started a 3rd Wave of minor degree but still could be the fastest and one of the good rally in near future. Though indicators are almost nearing overbought zone on daily chart, but we still have chances to move ahead. So strategy is simple to hold longs on Nifty with targets of 7909,8055 SL: 7690 

Nifty ends with Confusion

Today was ought to be Decider between Bulls and Bears on Nifty but it ended with confusion with almost No change today. Technically as i mentioned 7690 was crucial zone and we did trade for fractions of seconds but as i always mention, what counts is closing. On other side 200 day SMA resistance which was at 7777 didnt trigger at all today. As we havent got close outside our range, Nifty can be interpreted as confusing close. Tried to apply Elliot wave, there are 3 possible targets for this short term profit booking: 7694,7629,7543. Already today we have achieved first target so there are chances of reversal from here, but as i said they are just chances. Its very difficult to answer exact bottom but still we can play the game. As  marked in Yellow square, its the best buy zone for short term traders. So now strategy remains the same of buying on dips, if at all we see trading below 7694 again on monday or else if we trade above 7777 then just go long.

 

 

D-Day for Nifty Tomorrow

Nifty has been trading in strict range of trade since last few sessions and volatility has ended traders into confused zone. But now tomorrow is a D-Day for the Nifty deciding May expiry future. As we all can mark in the attached chart, Index has been taking support at 7690 level which is trend line support of the line stretched by connecting Highs of Nifty since 9119. Line had been acting as a strong resistance prior to recent rally for almost one year but now, as it is said, it has changed its role to support line. On the upside 200 day SMA which is now at 7777 is acting as strong resistance and bulls are finding it difficult to catch up momentum above the same level. Indicators on Daily charts are in middle of the road so all depends on the range breakout tomorrow. Looking at Open Interest, 7700 Puts is still witnessing write-off which makes us little biased in favor of bull but on other side Banking stocks are not supporting small rallies during intraday. So all confusion has ended up the day with a Doji today, making it D-Day for Nifty Tomorrow. Fingers Crossed!!!

Trade is on the channel “Bank”

Banking stocks have given a good rally from the budget low and specially PSU banks, but now since last 3 sessions we are losing some strength in the stocks. Some Private sector banks are trading at 52 week high which posted strong results for the last quarter. PSU banks are the cause of weakening because they are posting worst than expected results. This could be clearly seen in Nifty Bank index chart that too the monthly which is attested in the post. Index Trade is on the channel Bank on other side of which we could see a long term breakout but it seems lil difficult looking at the momentum in short term. Adding open interest Data , i feel 16000 as the bottom while 17000 is the resistance which is also the channel resistance. technically support is seen at Red line which is at 15790. So this week trading is crucial for banking stock.

Recommended Strategy on Index: Buy Around 15790 or above 16800 which is early. Stop loss would be 15500 and 16500 respectively.

Get ready to Drive your Jaguar!!

Tata Motors have been most under-performing stock in Auto Industry in recent past but now its time be the out-performer in coming months. Stock has tested sub 300 levels twice last year and while testing so it has created a Double bottom  pattern on weekly charts of the stock. Have outlined Double bottom pattern on the adjoining chart, though it is not perfect text book pattern but it is too close to the same. Neckline which is defined or known as Breakout line is a 425 and we are approaching the same which would trigger a sure buy for medium term traders. Indicators have confirmed momentum crossover which confirmed positive divergence which is also marked with white line. Still we have to confirm 100 weeks average which is at 442 but i would rather recommend to trade on breakout of Double bottom pattern at 425. Target would be equal to the distance between Two lows and Neckline , calculated from the neckline.

So recommended target above 425 would be approx 555 with Stop loss 385.

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