Today was one of the most interesting expiry end of my career! It feels good when you have initiated call against 90% of the public on D-street and you get in right in just last 3 hours of trade. Had been betting on bears since mid expiry but wasnt get it right until today when i got reason to my view posted on 20th Sept in the post : “Reason would be just a confirmation!” . Just a small sign of war and we got the much awaited profit booking on cards which almost got my target 8550 mentioned in the post above and return ticket of bulls is confirmed now! But would the fall be immediate ???……. Surely, NOT!! ….. Though medium term outlook turns bearish, but a pull back cannot be ruled out in immediate sessions!! What has given me the most fear for a more downfall is Nifty has closed below 50 Day average at 8688 for the first time since early march which indicates that sentiments are turning bearish for next term and also weekly charts are expected to give a bearish close tomorrow after many months. But then why a small pull back???…….. Global sentiments could be the reason!! …OPEC decision to cut production has raised indices of Global markets and that could support our pull back for sure….. So calculating from all possible ways, we can get a pull back to 8715/8820/8870 levels in coming days. Its difficult to say one point of reversal today but 8820 seems to be more likely because its coinciding with a channel resistance too! ……So what after a pull back??……. Looking at Fibonacci i feel 8150-8250 could be level where markets could take support. Between the range we have many gaps unfilled and also we have a neckline support of “inverted H&S of Nifty” which i mentioned in my post “Time for investors to be Active!” on 14 July 2016 !
So to sum up, surely my view is bit biased on downside, but anything is possible!!
My recommended Strategy:
For risk traders:
- Go long with Double stop loss at 8550 first for targets of 8820 where you go double short with stop loss of 8980
For safe traders and Long term investors:
- Buy 8600 PE November expiry on each rise from tomorrow with stop loss at 8980 on Nifty spot….
Target on Nifty: 8150-8250