Category Archives: Currency

66.80 tgt achieved on USDINR

On the 1st of March i initiated a sell call on USDINR on Hedge against Dollar at around 68.64 and today its target has been achieved. We have seen dollar index weakening which had its effect on our currency too. Rupee had been trading in the strict upper range today we are moving beyond the support to strengthen more. Attached chart is weekly chart and we are expecting this reversal to be strong in nature as indicators are also staring to support us. Also on daily charts, 100 DMA which was around 66.90 has been breached convincingly today. So would like to initiate a fresh strategy for the USD INR for Sell on rise.

Strategy: Sell on Rise (CMP: 66.70) SL: 67.20 tgt 65.50



Hedge against Dollar

Our Rupee has been weakening continuously against Dollar since June 2014, while it was trading around 60/USD. But still it has been trading in the strict upside channel, and importer and exporter could take support of the same and hedge their payments accordingly. Fundamentally, this has been the period where FII has sold heavily in Emerging markets including India, and all the currencies around the world had weakened against dollar, so we did too but we out performed though. Now after the investor friendly budget for starts up and many other sector, and valuation at cheapest in last 2 years, i feel FII would start pouring in some money. As India is the only emerging market, with growth of more than 7% at in such fragile times, am sure that FII would prefer India over other emerging markets. So may be Equity markets could remain volatile but as USD/INR charts suggest that Currency has resisted near to the channel line which is intact since 2 years, so one can surely take a risk to hedge. Even the time frame of the chart is Weekly, and if we closed below 68.30 on Friday, we can get “Evening star pattern” which is bullish reversal..But as indicators and channel suggest a sell, one shouldnt wait to hedge.

Strategy: Sell USD/INR March (CMP:68.64) Tgt: 66.80 SL: 69.30

#4 Currency Update: 60.40 achieved

On 17th Oct we mentioned to Short USD and we have achieved our 1st tgt 60.40 on the next day itself  But now before activating next two targets we expect a pull back to 50 EMA near to 63.10. Indicators are also at the support zone and expect a recovery soon. As u could notice yesterday it breached resistance line and now we could see some upside movement. But Weekly and Monthly charts are still weak so dont go long  rather short on every rupee rise

Our Strategy: SHORT USDINR around 63 who missed at first go. Call is for long term hedgers while traders can go long at CMP for tgt 63.10 sl:60.80

#3 Currency Update: Time to Sell USD

Rupee depreciation has been the talk of the town for last few months which has been beneficial for companies and individual having reach in foreign countries. Sectors like IT and Pharma are expected to show earnings above street estimation this quarter. On last 30th October it was our #1 Currency target and we gave minimum target of 62.80 against closing of around 52 that month and it was achieved with in a year. Now looking at charts of other markets we are of a view that Rupee should get stronger and fortunately we have seen perfect confirmation technically on USD/INR monthly chart. For the basic technical analyst as you all could notice a Dark Cloud cover pattern though not the perfect one but its valid. Indicators have turned out from overbought zone. Combining it with other technical theory we are expecting our Rupee to appreciate against dollar in next 1-2 years.

Our strategy: We recommend to Short USD/INR near to CMP of 61 tgts 60.40/57.60/54.70/53 and MAX it go down to 50 in next 1-2 years with SL of 65 (Monthly Close)

#2 Currency update: Rupee to get stronger with tgts of 59/57.30/56.30/55.85

On 30th October 2012 post , i gave target of 62.80 on USD/INR but most of you would have laughed it out, but today are just little far to that target. But i would like to update you all on the same.As RBI is stepping in to protect rupee and even chart says so that now we might see rupee getting stronger upto targets of 59/57.30/56.30/55.85  So strategy is simple to short dollars currently with SL of 60.80