Category Archives: Britian

BREXIT Recap

Introduction

WHAT IS BREXIT?

A referendum wil be held on Thursday 23 June, 2016 to decide whether Britain should exit (Britain’s Exit – hence the term Brexit) or remain in the European Union.

WHO WOULD VOTE?

The votes in which everyone ( or nearly everyone) of voting age can take part, normally giving a ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ answer to a question. The side which gets more than half of all votes cast is declared as a winner.

All British, Irish and Common wealth citizens over 18 who are the resident of U K, along with U K nationals living abroad who have been on the electoral register in the UK in the past 15 years.

DECISION:-

A decision to leave, this would be a first by a member nation.

The European Unification

The European Economic Community was launched in 1958. It became the European Union in 1993. The Euro Currency was created in 1999.

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If there are majority votes – in favor of LEAVE Britain

THE LEAVE VOTE :-

ØThis would deepen the crisis facing a continent already struggling with economic weakness, debt problems, large-scale migration and growing geopolitical instability to its south and east.

ØWithout the U.K., which alongside France dwarfs the military capacities of other member states, the EU’s defense, security and diplomatic capabilities would be hit. Only Britain and France have sizable expeditionary forces, nuclear weapons and United Nations Security Council vetoes.

ØBritain’s Exit from EU will have major repercussions for Britain, EU as well as economies across the world.

ØIncreased Paperwork: EU citizens in Britain and Brits living in other EU nations would have to update their immigration statuses. Companies working in both the UK and the EU would have to verify that they’re compliant with two sets of laws.

ØBlow to UK Economy: The UK government estimates say that Brexit could cause the country’s economy to be between 3.8 and 7.5 % smaller by 2030.

ØThreat to UK’s ‘United’ Status: Brexit could encourage England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland to appeal for quitting United Kingdom.

ØRipple effect for global economy: The United States will bear the major brunt of a Brexit being UK’s biggest trading partner. President Obama has warned that it could take 10 years for Britain to negotiate a new trade deal with the US Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi group together have contributed to the anti Brexit campaign.

If there are majority votes – in favor of STAY Britain

THE STAY VOTE :-

ØIf Vote works in favour of Britain then Britain would get a special status  within the 28 nation club.

ØMigrant Welfare Payments: Cutting the amount of benefits for low paid migrant workers from EU nations will dissuade them from flocking to UK in large numbers. Migrant workers, however, will still be able to send child benefit payments back to their home country.

ØKeeping the pound: Britain will never join euro and has secured assurances that the Eurozone countries will not discriminate against Britain for having its own currency.

ØProtection for London’s biz: Safeguards for Britain’s large financial services industry to prevent Eurozone regulations being imposed on it.

ØRunning its own affairs: For the first time, there will be a clear commitment that Britain is not part of a move towards even closer union with other EU member states – one of the core principles of EU.

The mixed reviews of EU countries

NOT IN FAVOUR:-

  • A Pew Research Centre survey published this month showed levels of disapproval of the EU in many countries as high as or higher than in the U.K.
  • In the Netherlands, 46% had an unfavourable view of the EU; in Germany and the U.K., 48%; in Spain, 49%; and in France, 61%.

MIXED REVIEW OF EU COUNTRIES:-

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Source:- Pew Research Centre of Global Attitudes Survey, The Wall Street Journal.

 

If Britain Exits – its impact on India

IMPACT ON INDIA:-

ØWith Euro losing one of its stars, India too can feel sighed.

ØRupee may depreciate due to double effect of foreign fund outflow and dollar rise.

ØThis will increase petrol and diesel prices to an extent.

ØThe government may want to reduce additional excise duty imposed on fuel when it was on a downward trajectory. This will increase fiscal deficit, unless revenue increased.

ØPrices of gold, electronic goods, among others will increase.

ØCheaper rupee will make Indian exports including IT and ITes, competitive.

 

Disclaimer: This is my personal view so reply on them at your risk