Category Archives: Nifty Bank

#8 BankNifty Update: Can Jalan bring Kalyan for Banking sector?

Janal Panel is the appointed committee for reviewing New Banking licenses by RBI. Today just before a hour of writing up this post i received the news that Committee has submitted its report to RBI today after scrutinizing all the 25 applicants. Can Jalan bring Kalyan (Bliss in english) for the banking sector?? Everyone is waiting for this answer since pretty long. Fingers Crossed!! Coming to technicals, our tgt 10760 has been achieved on Banlnifty call initiated at 30th Jan. As we could notice that it has also breached above a uptrend channel as Nifty has but it gave signal a day earlier. Another important trendline which has been breached is the resistance line drawn from the high last year. It has closed above all the short term moving averages and 5 Daily EMA has crossed other short term moving averages from below giving a strong buy call. Now there are two strong support lines below for the index. Indicators have turned positive on daily chart and value buying has been seen in small cap and Mid cap banks, PSU bank seems to be ready for short covering tomorrow on expiry

Our recommendation : We are intact with our next tgt 10990 with extended tgt of 11100 with trailing SL of 10500.

*Note: all levels are of Spot index and not future.

#7 BankNifty Update: Super Over between Bulls and Bears

BanknNifty has banked your profits to some extent since are last post on the same i.e, Our tgts 10390/10580 has been achieved on our long call recommended on 30th Jan.   Technically Banknifty is trading weak below 100D EMA and 200D EMA which suggest a under performance compared to Nifty which is trading above both the long term averages. This negative divergence calls for a volatile session ahead in either of the Index and i am of view that BankNifty will see some steep upside move. Today bankNifty gave a positive breakout on Upside small channel and closed above tht line as you guys can notice on the daily chart of Index above. But today i just came across a new bigger channel which has a strong resistance at 10630 tomorrow. So tomorrow its Superover between bulls and bears in which only one could win. But the volumes and Indicator are suggesting a strong upside move which could be confirmed strongly with a close above 10630 on the index tomorrow. FM yesterday announced more infusion on in the PSU banks of Approx 11k cr which markets took as a cheering factor on banks today which lead Nifty today. Some of the pvt sector banks chart have since a strong bounce bank from 3 years support line which makes it more bias towards sky scraper BankNifty. Index has closed above all the Short term Moving averages today giving some fishy smell. but upside is capped near to 100DEMA and 200DEMA which is around 10900 levels. So we are intact with our previous long call.

Our Strategy: Hold long on the index as intimated on last post with next activated targets of 10780/10990 with trailing closing SL of 10200

#6 BankNifty Update: Ranking your profits high on the Low

You might be thinking that what does my headline mean today??? I meant to say that even BankNifty made a near term low today, i am sure you guys are ranking high on profits as you would have made almost 1100 points on our short call on Banknifty. On 15th December we recommended to short BankNifty near to 11366 and our tgt was 10260 which has been achieved comfortably. A simple look on chart could attract you guys to steep fall in last 1.5 months with small recovery. But Now as per elliot wave we expect a small pull on bankNifty which would be intermediate move and not the larger wave.  The Chart mentioned is weekly chart and it has breached 200 Weekly average which was acting as strong support. But we expect it to resume support next week soon. Banking sector bulls have seen some tough beating and now its time for them to give a fight back.

Our recommendation: We recommend to go long on BankNifty  (CMP:10153) with tgts 10390/10580/10780/10990 SL:9980

#5 BankNifty Update: Bank's Tank's

On 15th Dec we recommended to Short BankNifty on our blog at 11366 with tgts of 10720 and 10260 of which we have achieved 1st tgt easily last week. BankNifty made low at 10333 which was just 70 points away from our 2cd tgt. Anyways No worries we will still get that tgt but might take some time. Today we had third monetary policy by Mr.Rajan and street expected no change but truely speaking i did expect a hike in rate. I am not lieing but who all are in my touch personally could recollect that i myt have conveyed this gut feeling. Inflation has did cool off in last number but that major change was becoz have decreasing in Onion price. On other sign IIP are getting worst which made me pretty sure that RBI will rake hike. Though i didnt expect hike in reverse repo. Now coming to technicals BankNifty is still showing weakness sign on Weekly chart but a short covering is expected on Daily chart. As you could notice weekly chart in above graph, it clear shows off strong support at 200 Weekly average last week. Secondly now elliot wave suggests that we might see a pull back to 10988 but thats just a big MIGHT. 10988 is also a trendline resistance and 100 weekly Moving average which makes that point more stronger resistance on weekly chart. I hope you guys have booked atleast 50% profit on our 1st tgt 10720, if not do it right away.

Our Recommendation: HOLD rest 50% short on bankNifty with trailing at Cost price 11366 and risk taker can again short near 10988 with the same SL. and near tgt is intact at 10260 

*all levels mentioned are of bankNifty index and Not future and rely on recommendation at your risk.

#4 BankNifty Update: Dont Bank on Bank for near term

After nifty, Banknifty index is the most followed index. On 19th of October we had recommended to go long on Banknifty with tgts of 10948/11200 which were easily achieved in November/December. Now time has came to book all longs for short time and Sell Banknifty. Ofcourse for long term investors its time to arrange for some liquidity as they will get a chance to buy some banks for time horizon 2-3 years. Fundamentally, as we mentioned in our last post on Nifty, we are expecting some rate hike in upcoming Monetary policy and also expecting FED to start tapering soon. Now coming to BankNifty Weekly chart technical’s, it has resisted at strong resistance line which was a support line last quarter. Secondly, A dark cloud cover pattern is visible on charts but not much valid as its not the clear top. Thirdly, the most strong theory which i follow Elliot Wave is showing some correction on the charts. Weekly, indicators have turned negative for the short term. Counting Waves, it has completed Sub-Wave 1 with as visible 5 wave Pattern. Now a correction Wave 2 with a-b-c is possible. We expected atleast correction upto 10720. At the most it could drop down to 10250 in near term.

Our Strategy: We recommend to go Short on BANKNIFTY (CMP:11366 cash level) with tgts of 10720/10260 SL:11750 …

*all level mentioned are of Index and not the future contract of Index

#3 BankNIfty Update: 10600 achieved! now a speed breaker at 10948

On 2cd October we mentioned to go long on banknifty with first tgt of 10600 which has been achieved comfortably last week. Many ups-down but index is moving in perfect upside channel. Fundamentally, results of HDFCBANK, IndusInd and Axis Bank has been announced and they were at par with street estimation. Markets had rallied a dream run yesterday but i dont think it would lead to a life time high next week. We expect banknifty to resist near to 10948  which could be even touched on Intraday level.  Inflation is concern for us but currently it wouldnt have any negative affect on index or markets. SBIN is still to deliver results and i personally feel that NPA with all PSU bank is expected to increase.

Our Strategy: Our next tgt 11200 is activated but we recommend to book 30% profit at 10950 and buy back at correction upto 10400. If it closes above 10950 than hold upto 11200.

#2 BankNifty Update: Be ready for a take-off to 12300

BankNifty seems to be ahead of Nifty of signalling a buy call. Bank Nifty has technically taken a strong support of 61.8% of the previous rally and bounced back yesterday to a runway for flight towards 12300 in near term. But still indicators are not ready for take off and we need some confirmation from their side. On other hand index is hovering around once a resistance line which could act as a support line further. Short term moving averages are clustered around 10000 level. Currently we are biased towards upperside for the index.

Our Strategy: We recommend risk takers to go long  with sl of 9580 while SAFE Traders are recommended to go long ABOVE 10032 with tgts of 10600/11200/12300 SL:9815 

#1 Bank Nifty Update: Bank on Banking Stocks!

My title might seem funny for traders as thy will feel that  “Pagal hai kya, jo banking sector leno ko bol raha hai”. Remember guys that same feelings were for the people who advised IT stocks before 2000. Since 2000-2010 we saw a IT boom and i am sure many retail long term investor wouldnt have made most of it. Now i feel that 2010-2020 would be for banking in particular to India and Asian Countries. WHY?? What i feel and most of you will agree is that today we have Mobile connection and Internet connection in most the rural parts of India but ask yourself a question that do we have a Banks at all those places??. Majority answer is NO. As India is booming, use of more plastic money and cheque payment has increase as our rupee has depreciated and transactions are such large at a time that its difficult rather risky to transfer cash so bank is required in such situation. Take it a land deal to a business deal, everyone requires a bank account. Even rural farming loans are disbursed through cheques by governmnent but problem is that we dont have presence of bank branches. So farmers are not availing farming subsides unless they have a bank account. Since last 5 years bank accounting opening is on high growth which could ultimately result in good balance sheet of the banks. This was fundamental view and now talking about technicials. Technically Banknifty as you all can notice on the chart, should take support around 10440 in worse case scenario. On upper side we could see 13300/14770/21000 in coming years. My focus would be on private sector banks as they are growing their presence rapidly than pubilc sector. My top picks are HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK and Yes Bank. For small cap concentrate on DENABANK. So my strategy would be going long on banknifty with every dip up to 10440 with sl of 9900 for long term investors.