Category Archives: Nifty

Getting closer to breakout

Nifty chart has been pretty confusing these days and today we have added one more day to confusion. As we all can notice in the chart we have got another “Doji” type candle which is indecisive in nature. If we analyse Nifty from different angle’s then its getting more and more confusing. Candle stick patterns have failed and today we have got a Doji at resistance line of 7204. Though it is the level near to a strong breakout but volumes today is not supporting my view for the long breakout. But if we look at indicators, below in the chart,  they have given bullish crossover with their Moving average. Secondly, derivative data is suggesting 7000-7100 as strong base for next week as much writing on PUT was witnessed. Thirdly,  global markets have given bullish breakouts from the consolidation which means that Nifty should compile with their trend. So overall charts are confusing but biased towards long. Crucial levels for tomorrow at 7204 on upside. While for downside there is not specific level, but shorts would get stronger if the open is below 7127. So safe traders avoid markets, risk takers stay long but keep sl of 7100 the opening is gap down.

"Pati" Gave a good fight back

Today the fight continued between the Villain and the Hero. We saw a positive to flat opening and it was expected that we will follow global peers and move on but villain i.e., Bearish engulfing had a role to play and we saw sell-off in first hour breaking confidence in the street but the hero fought back we saw sharp recover to 0 level by 12pm. From the derivative side we had witnessed highest volume trading on 7000 CE and 7000 PE which acted as level of pivot till 1:30pm. But than we saw a great recovery in the market after Europe opened up positive and traded 1%+. Technically, PSU banks read the short covering as they already showed positive divergence since last few days. We managed to close above 7050 which was acting as a minor resistance on the option writers side today. So Hammer to fight bearish Engulfing which fought morning star pattern has been formed..pretty confusing ..huh?.. Yes..Nifty charts are still confusing for some clear trend. Levels of Confirmation remains the same as yesterday which is 7204 on upside and 6870 on downside.

Pati, Patni aur Woh!

Though title indicates a Bollywood post but its not! The post is surely about equity markets but somehow today’s move on Nifty relates to this Bollywood title. Mondays move had given a birth to a hope of strong reversal for long traders and it was confirmed with a Bullish candle opening above Fridays candle and confirming “Morning star” pattern as Circle Green in the attached chart. But today entered a villain in the chart and it gave a “bearish engulfing” with the help of yesterdays chart, souring the relationship of a “Morning star”pattern. Now situation is exactly same as a one gal with a married guy and extra marital. She is confused with whom so should live further and the case is registered in the court. Hearing is tomorrow and we should be clear of her move further. Today markets also resisted near the trend line which was acting as a strong support previously around 7204. So now traders should be cautious tomorrow and wait for clear close above either 7204 which is high of “Bearish Engulfing” or below 6869 which is the low of “morning star”. So all the positions tomorrow should be Hedged!!

 

Time for Nifty to be ShowStopper

BankNifty is already running successful show at D-Street and now its time for Nifty to be showstopper. Nifty was a bit volatile in last 200 points rally from 7600-7800 but now we could see some strong short covering upto 8225. Technically, as circled, index has taken strong closing support at 7670 which is 100 weekly average. On my last post on Nifty, i was waiting for this support and we have got that. Combining that with my Wave’s and Indicators, it makes my view strong for a short term target of 8225. May be FED decision is what you all worried but i guess, whatever be the decision, it should be in favor of short covering as chart says it first. I feel with Bank Policy on 29th Sept, Nifty could be Showstopper amongst global markets to outperform the most in coming weeks. So my advise to hold and go long on Nifty with tgts of 8225 n Strict sl 7670 

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Markets only for "BahuBali"

Unfortunately markets tumbled swiftly below 7600 which was my last resort for support in near term. Now its recommended for safe traders to avoid any kind of trade on Index for this week while only BAHUBALI’s who has capacity to take loss can trade in such markets. One thing good about the last 100 points fall was that BankNifty and Nifty, which were having divegence, are now in line with one another. As i have attached weekly charts, you could notice in the rectangular that on first day of the week we have breached support of 100 Week average which markets were taking since a long time. BUT ofcourse we need closing below the same for the confimation which is 7680. So this Friday’s close is important. Secondly Circled, support is 7130-7200 and which is expected to come but not immediately. As indicators are in highly oversold zone a pull back is due but need some momentum from domestic data front. So overall as of now i RECOMMEND TO AVOID TRADING IN INDEX UNLESS WEEKLY CLOSE CONFIRMATION as it better late than Never.


a good "Harami" friend

Confused with the headline? How can a Harami be a good friend? Actually, Harami here is a Japanese word which means a “Pregnant Woman”and its a candlestick pattern which indicated a reversal from bottom. As circled in the chart of Nifty, it is a “Bullish Harami pattern” which now supports my view of a short covering on the index. To make this a strong reversal point, it has taken support at the Blue line which has changed its role from a resistance line to support line. Overall, global markets have given a pull back after a black monday fall but yet we have to recover the ground. FII has been selling last month but that was mere a profit booking. Overall market could now a pull back to 8150-8220 level. Short term trader should stay long with the SL of 7600 which is the previous low and support line level. May be one more sharp correction is due but that would be after we achieve 8220 so long term investors should stay on some cash for shopping later. Currently Nifty is a buy with tgts 8150 and SL 7600

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Relief Rally gets a kick-off: Nifty: 7948

Expiry was better of in volatility than all expected after the first three sessions of this week. Nifty, after mondays fall, continued its sell off on Tuesday and Wednesday as Brokers raised Hair cut on margin stocks to 70% which forced traders to square off its leverage Derivative positions. But on Thursday we say sustained rally and fresh buying in undervalued stocks such as Tata Steel, Tata Motors , Sun Pharma to name few from the Nifty’s 50 Basket. Internationally, China and US are playing a blame game. China blames US Fed’s rate hike fear for global sell off while US blames Yuan devaluation and slow chinese growth for sell-off. But the technical truth is , charts were already overbought around the world. We have seen a rally on MoM charts for almost two years and now its a turn for some correction. Almost all global indicies had breached 200 day average this week and saw a steep fall of almost 5-7% which has to be followed by a pull back. Indicators on daily charts are suggesting a pull back as they are highly oversold. Talking about Nifty, as i mentioned in my last post of probable rally, it has kicked off! As circled in the chart, the circled zone is cluster of many technical resistances. 1) 100 Day average:8350 2)61.8% Retracement: 8277 and 3)Gap: 8225. So as i mentioned in my last post traders could be long with targets anywhere between 8225-8350. Achieveing targets doesnt means to short but we have to wait than for a strong reversal as resistance on upside is 200 Day avg  8451. So as of now i recommend to stay long. 

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Nifty 7880 (+71): A relief rally

Am sure today many of them would have lost atleast some or part of the wealth though market ended in +ve territory. Since i entered the financial markets had never witnessed such a wide range of volatility on Nifty. But technically, Nifty took support exactly at the 100 Weekly average (dotted line in graph) at around 7670 which was crucial one. This support hadnt been breached on EOD basis since 14-9-2012 which makes this time for markets where dangerous. But as you all guys could see a gap which is relevant due its presence on weekly chart, we now could forward to fill up the gap which coincide with my wave calculation for relief rally. Indicators too on weekly charts are expecting a recovery momentum but this could be only the expiry play after which we could again see a free fall on the index. Medium term outlook has weaken so playing long would be a bit volatile play. For the short term we could surely be on the long side with the upside capped in the range of 8225-8300. 

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Opening: Nifty: 7895 (+86)Still in ICU

We saw some biggest fall in terms of points yesterday due to global trends. It is Known as Black Monday for the traders. Today we are witnessing some pull back which would resist around 8300 and i expect short covering by expiry. Though overall medium term outlook is still bearish and we could see 7470-7500 levels in next expiry. Each opportunity on the upside should be considered as a Selling opportunity for traders while long term investors can invest 25% stock specific at this level.  Intraday traders stay away today too. Nifty R-7970,8180 S-7880,7790 

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Opening: Traders are gonna take a blood Bath: Nifty 8055 (-244)

If you are heart patient, i would recommend not to call up your broker atleast for today. We are witnessing a gap down opening near to psychological support of 8000 and i expect it should hold this expiry i.e., this week. On the derivative side 7900 as strong support for this August expiry and we expect a bounce back to 8300 levels. Global market indexes too has breached 200 day average support which is a sign that we are entering a medium term correction mode. Overall we dont have much on domestic news front but we are reacting to global sell-off and we have also entered correction mode. I would recommend not take ANY news position today. Just WAIT n WATCH. Nifty R-8220,8285 S-8030,7980