Category Archives: Nifty

Closing: Long Wait failed: Nifty 8299 (-72)

Morning wasnt good enough as we saw a gap down opening due to global factors. All the frontline stocks had opened almost -2% down but the few good one recovered. Leading the recovery was the most promising defensive sectors Pharma and IT. Those sectors always protect long traders in such situations. Infosys and TechM managed to close in green while TCS lost gains in the end. Sun Pharma and Auropharam managed to stay positive. On the later part of the day we did see some recover post 8300 but that was just a short covering. Though we have closed with the a Doji and chances are of a strong reversal on Monday but this would be a minor wave uptrend. Could we touch 8860? Yes queit possible but still the chances of 7600 cant be ruled out than. So as of now, we can expect a short covering due to expiry week but how long we sustain can be unfold only after Mondays Move. Be Cautious on Monday! 


Opening: Screaming Traders: Nifty 8305 (-67)

Greece prime minister resigning and weak PMI Chinese numbers have given our asian peers a red mark on D-Street. Nifty too is opening with the mark which would leave our traders with a Scream and shock. Overall Indian markets are not concerned with that global news but rather domestic concerns like GSTBIll/LandBill/Weaknening rupee/Monsoon deficit. So of the four two later ones are not in our hands while former two can be resolved and i guess it wont be done untill winter session. Technically, markets are expected to give a strong profit bookin with upside capped at 8650 while downside gates open to 7600. Nifty is no trade zone for intraday. AVOID INTRADAY for today. Nifty R-8425,8445 S-8310,8276

Closing: Burning Money: Nifty:8372 (-122)

Am sure many of them have burned their pockets and profit today but i had been recommending to hedge positions since a bit long. Nifty has been near crucial level of 8350 below which 7600 gates opened. Banks and specially Mid-cap PSU banks were the most beaten. Overall markets seems to be gettting weak from inside which means bad days are ahead. CNX Pharam and CNX FMCG stocks were positive which clearly says that they are gonna be defensive bet. Nifty has closed below 100 Day avg which is at 8390 giving a threat to long traders. I would suggest to avoid any further longs and keep strict sl at 8350 for longs.

FUEL SECTOR TO DRIVE MARKETS:-

The Oil and Gas sector is very important part among all the sectors. The Oil and Gas sector has to be developed in order to meet the demands. Government to focus on improving direct transfer of subsidy to poor sections thereby reduce the overall subsidy burden and there will be a ray of light of development in the poor sections and this will boost the whole sector as well.  The government will also increase the share of natural gas in the domestic energy consumption and therefore it will develop the current gas pipeline capacity of 15000kms. In FY 15, subsidy allocation is of Rs. 634 bn with last year’s carry forward of Rs. 350 bn.
The Government will take measures to promote the coal bed methane (CBM) and use of modern technology in order to revive and develop the old closed files which will help the sector to boom as the government is taking measures to open up the blocks. The Government will also promote the usage of Piped Natural Gas and rapidly scale it up on a mission basis.
Currently, the Oil and Gas sector is trading at a PE of 13x compared to CNX NIFTY which is trading at around PE of 21x. So, currently the Oil and Gas sector is undervalued compared to Nifty. Hence we are positive on this sector. We are bullish on Reliance Industries on the back of likely increasing the gas prices by the government and ONGC on the back of de-regulated diesel prices by the government.

#214 Nifty Update: Some rains on the charts

Deficit monsoon has been a matter of worry for investor but some relief has been seen in the last week in some parts of India. On nifty too we saw some rain of relief for the bulls in the last few sessions. On the 14th July i did post our strategy which was going long above 7625  and we have seen a weekly close above that same level giving a confirmation for the power in hands of bulls. Nifty has closed above all the short term moving averages on Daily charts. On the weekly charts we had got a weak closing last week with Nifty closing below 5 Weekly SMA but that proved to be false as Nifty has closed back above that average. Indicators on Daily are signaling buy on the index but weekly indicators are still flat. As you could notice in the adjoining daily chart of Index, Nifty has turned around from the strong support line which had been a resistance line in the move before. It turned around with a “morning star” candlestick pattern. Fundamentally, its quarterly result season and its the first result for this financial year and for the Modi led government. Infosys has given flat results as per expectations but other 2 big giants Reliance and TCS has beaten street estimates. As per reports reliance has seen highest ever FII investment in the stock of almost 20%. This is the good sign of bulls to be in power for longer term. On the economy front, we have seen some highest IIP numbers of 4.7% which is a positive sign for the turnaround. Technically the Nifty is still in a long term bull trend

Our strategy: We recommend to HOLD long initiated at 7625 as per our last post. Tgts on upside are 7850/8031 sl:7456

SPECIALTY CHEMICALS TO DRIVE THE GROWTH STORY OF INDIAN CHEMICAL SECTOR

Having survived the stormy market conditions over the last few years, the Indian chemical industry is now poised for next big wave of growth. The industry is at the verge of rapid growth, with the Government of India (GoI) providing an atmosphere of care and support. Indian Chemical industry is worth of $ 108.4 billion is the 6th largest in the world and the 3rdlargest in Asia, after China and Japan. The chemical sector accounts for about 14% in overall index of industrial production (IIP) and adds around 11% in national exports. The industry is on a high growth trajectory. In the base case scenario, with current initiatives of industry & government, the Indian chemical industry could grow at 11% p.a. to reach size of $224 billion by 2017.

Indian chemical industry substantially contributes to the economy; however the slow economic growth in 2013 has impacted the demand for chemicals. Nevertheless, the industry which is witnessing considerably slow is betting big on specialty chemicals that are expected to show considerable growth. Specialty chemicals include adhesives, additives, antioxidants, and biocides, corrosion inhibitors, cutting fluids, dyes, lubricants and pigments. Specialty and knowledge chemicals which form about 35-40% of the total chemicals industry, has been witnessing a double digit growth over the years due to increasing penetration and growth from a lower base. The specialty chemicals sector is characterized by requirements for high-value products, high-volume requirements with expanding customer base, a product-driven market, and addition of new participants at various levels of the value chain.

Moreover, Indian specialty chemical manufacturers have a strong presence in the export market, too. Active pharmaceutical ingredients and colorants, including dyes and pigments, are some of the key products exported. India exports specialty chemicals to Asia-Pacific countries and also to Europe and US. With a potential to grow to $70-$100 billion by 2020 from the present $23 billion, the specialty chemicals market has plotted a strong growth at 14 per cent per annum over the last five years and is expected to be the key driver for India’s chemical sector’s growth story. 

#213 Nifty Update: Dark Cloud cover at the wrong place

Its already a late July and still no sign of heavy rains anywhere in India. Dark cloud cover has arrived but on Nifty and not on the cities. Nifty has dragged almost 400 points from the high last week. Railway Budget and General Budget were the two big events last week. Both were delivered in the faith of long term growth but still common man takes it hard to digest a expensive growth. IIP which was announced after the market hours on Friday which came at almost 18 months high at 4.7%. All the major events now have been declared and now markets will work on sentiments and Quarterly results. Technically market is gonna be crucial for this 15 days now. Daily chart has already weakened and we expect a 50-80 points pull back while weekly chart has also gone in the court of bears. But Monthly charts been still positive we have some hopes. 7300 is strong support on the monthly chart but if thats broken you could see some deep correction of 10%. Nifty could take support at 50 Day SMA at 7386. On our last Post we mentioned to Hold long and our 1st tgt 7688 had been achieved after which trailing SL of 7538 had hit down.

Our strategy: Wait and Watch. Short below 7300 and Go long above 7625

GOVERNMENT ON DRIVE- INVESTMENT IN GREEN ENERGY:-

The government is showing its concern towards reducing fossil fuel reserves. The government is taking up initiatives to invest in solar and wind power projects in order to give a boost to the power sector and resolve electricity problems, in fact the government has started working on unexplored potential lying in the desert regions- Thar in Rajasthan, Rann of Kutch in Gujarat, Lahul & Spiti in Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh in Jammu & Kashmir. The plan could include an investment of Rs. 2 Lakh Cr by 2022.

The use of solar power is a “GO GREEN” approach taken up by the government to reach the increasing demand for power. The government’s goal is to produce 10 gigawatts of solar power by 2017; already the country has 2.8 gigawatts of the technology installed, enough for 6 million homes in the nation of 1.2 billion people. Hence the government is going great on investments in the power sector and I can see growth in this sector. So, we are bullish on companies which are in solar and wind energy in power sector.

The Indian Education Sector:-

The Indian Education Sector plays a very important role in the life of an individual. The government is taking effective measures in order to develop Education Sector. The Indian education sector has been recognized as a “Sunrise Sector” for investment in the recent past. It is the third largest in the world. We believe that the education sector will grow more than 16% over the next 5 years.
If we have a look at the present Education sector:-
·         The government is taking measures in order to educate more and more people and so education is also provided online these days.
·         The education sector is developing and measures are taken to educate the poor children in the rural areas as well, so this is a very good step taken by the government.
·         Development of education and many new institutions are opened up to provide education.
·         Measures are taken in order to reduce cost.

Hence, the government is taking measures to provide education and also making development in this sector but the government still needs to work more on this sector and it needs to cut down the cost so that it is affordable to the middle class and low class people as well.