Category Archives: Nifty

Budget Play

As the Election 2014 is over, it’s action time for the new government. Narendra Modi led NDA government already started taking steps in just 3 weeks like Meeting with SAARC leaders, Setting up an SIT on black money, Giving confidence and authorities to the Bureaucrats and dissolve of EGOM and GOM etc. But the next key focus for the government and for the markets is the budget which is expected to be tabled in the parliament on 2ndweek of July, 2014. As we know that in budget government will likely to focus on Fiscal Policies, Road and Infrastructure Sector, Power Sector and Health Care Sector.

We believe that Government would also likely to focus more on Research & Development Sector, Education Sector and IT Infrastructure Sector. So under education sector we are bullish on MT Educare because of its good business model and government awareness towards education sector. Under IT sector we are bullish on companies which are more focusing towards cloud computing like HCL Infosystems. Now we are waiting for the Budget.

#212 Nifty update: Sky is the Limit

Heat Wave and Modi Wave are the 2 unstoppable waves currently prevailing in the climate. No one would have dreamt that Nifty could reach this high in such a short period. Such a vigorous rally has two implications 1) Still more upside is left or 2) this is a false rally and we may see sharp correction. I am support the first view and SKY IS THE LIMIT for this bull run. Looking at the economy data yet it hasnt recovered so well that it get digest such a move in markets but its just the expectation of the world that New govt will make India a better place and the work has already begun. Many infra and mining bills are cleared on the fast track and also Power sector is seeing some huge reforms. Two laggards in the markets since last few years were Power sector and Mining which has recently outperformed other sectors of the markets. We have Trade Balance number at 12 today during the market hours and that could be important for the markets. In my last post we did mention a range bound movement but we recommended to go long if Nifty closes above 7488 which happened last week. Our First target than 7688 almost has been achieved  which now makes us hold nifty with the tgt of 8031 on the upside. Technically indicators have turned positive for now on daily charts while weekly and monthly continue to be suggesting a strong bull run. As we all can notice in the chart, nifty is resisting near to the line which is 7715 level. Once we break the resistance line on the upside than we could see a sharp move ahead to 8031. 5 day EMA has been acting as strong closing support which is at 7568 as of now.

Our recommendation: Hold the longs which has triggered at 7488 with the next tgt of 8031. Keep a trailing closing Stop loss at 7568.

*Disclaimer: all the view are based on technical analysis and are personal. Please rely on our recommendation after thorough study and at your on risk.

#211 Nifty Update: Waiting list for traders at 7150 to 7500

Dream rally its nearing to its end. Modi has sworn in as Prime minster so has been profit sworn into portfolios of investors. Now its time to start liquidating 20-30% portfolio and wait back for interesting levels on the downside to buy back the portfolio. Today Modi team was announced officially and they have started working on the first day. Last rally from 5933 was in expectation of Modi winning the battle and as event has been completed i feel it is even discounted in the rally. Now its time to book some profit. Since the rally from 6820, Nifty has not breached 5 Day Exponential till yesterday, but now it was breached twice. That is the sign of weakness.!!!! Indicators on the daily chart have turned bearish and i have noticed a wedge like formation on the top which could be breached  tomorrow on the downside. Even 5 EMA is around the same level as downside trendline of wedge at 7309 which is hammering the level in trade. On the other side marked Horizontal line at 7257 has acted as a strong pivot point around which nifty has toggled in last few sessions. Last two sessions low has been around the same level creating a strong base to trigger sell on breach of it. We even have a gap downside which could be filled up at 6871. Weekly charts are somewhat indecisive to take either side while MoM we are seeing a strong upside. Though daily chart showing some weakness we would wait and watch for strong levels of 7150-7500 to be breached to trade on respective side.

Our recommendation: We recommend to book profit on all longs which we initiated around 6800. We would recommend risky traders to short positional below 7257 or buy above 7488 whichever is first. While safe traders are recommended to short below 7150 and go long above 7500. On the dowside we have targes of 6870 and 6500  and on the upside 7680/8031 Consider closing of Nifty to act upon the levels  mentioned

*disclaimer: Trade on my idea at your risk and after due diligence. Refer to disclaimer page on website www.chartechnician.com for more. All the words used are just related to article and doesnt intend to hurt anyone personally. 

#210 Nifty Update:India to 'Modi'fy themselves

NaMo NaMo thats what all Indians Chanting since last 24 hours. Its time to change ourselves and ‘Modi’fy ourselves in line with developed world. Some of our policies are still traditional which is hindering our growth which may be cleared on a fast track as now we have a stable government. What it means for Indian stock market to have a stable government? As my Analyst says

“The incoming of a Stable government, which after 30 years, in 1984 the last government was with a clear majority. So all the people in the country has not experience of what is means to be have single majority government. If the government manages it well, there will be difficulties in the initial year but once they clear the difficulties, We believe the growth will start to pick up. And if they will be able to fulfill it what they have mention in there manifesto,. We believe that one should be in equities and should stay into the quality stocks for a much longer period than ever before. So it is a multi-year bull run and this is the start of it.”

Technically my views are same as my Analyst, which means probability of Green wave in Nifty is about to yet start. Still Indian industry is yet to recover and when they will start performing it would still shoot up our markets further. Since 24th April we were long on nifty (6840) and are both targets 7200 and 7480 has been achieved. But as i mentioned in my last post we extend our target to 8031. Looking at candlestick pattern on daily we are not getting any clear sign while indicators still so positive that we are getting clear upside from here. Expect a volatile month end on Nifty but hold your longs.

Our recommendation: HOLD long with tgts 7600/8031 with trailing SL of 6790 on weekly closing basis

*Note:All the words used in post are correlated to market and it please take position on my recommendation after careful study and at your risk

#209 Nifty Update: Bear's Break Fail

Modi wave continues since we mentioned in the last post. Last phase of Voting was today and voters have turned out in huge numbers. All the states witnessed % rise in total voters over 2009 which is a good sign of indian getting aware of their biggest responsibility. What i personally like about Modi is his personality, strong and Firm towards his work and philosophy. Coming back to economy, we are still in not in a perfect stage. CPI was announced today which is at 3 months high at 8.59% while IIP is still contracting at -0.1% vs 1.1% a year ago. We need some reforms in policies to spur up industrial production not merely NDA win. Quarterly results of corporate are improving which is a good sign of some bottoming out of markets. Last two sessions have been like a dream to bull players. Nifty has moved almost 350 points in 2 sessions and expect some more in next 4 sessions. Technically Nifty has breached all resistance level and all the breaks applied by bears have failed to stop bulls wave. As i have marked on the graph, nifty has just came out of a consolidation pattern “Expanding Triangle” which suggest a upmove which has already taken a start up since last two session. Looking at the indicators, all are still nowhere near to high point which is strongly supporting our bull biased view.

Our Strategy: We stick to our previous post upside view and tgts of 7200/7480 with extended long term target 8031. with trailing SL at 6650 on weekly closing basis

#208 Nifty Update: Strong Modi Wave making it Difficult for "Bears" to stand out

Hail Modi and Hail Modi Wave on Nifty Index. In my lost post i tried to take on Bulls for some time but we couldnt stand against the strong storm from the west of Modi Wave. Me being a gujju surely want Modi to take seat at the centre but more than me it seems Nifty is wanting that result. Last time i took a closer from Daily chart and i cut my finger but this time i wont make that mistake as now i jumped to Weekly and Monthly chart directly to take a boarder view. Fundamentally, earnings have been better than expected for Non-IT stocks while IT stocks have not performed as per expectations due to stronger rupee. This is the perfect trait of a bull run start when IT and FMCG post weaker earnings compared to other sectors. Overall all the companies our performing better than last quarter. SunPharma buying stake in Ranbaxy and Lafarage and Holcim mergers were the most talked and looked last quarter. Though later deal is yet not finalised but important for India as Ambuja and ACC are part of Holcim. Many Midcap and penny stock are the best pockets to park your money currently. My picks are Leela, Sintex, and Suzlon as of now though they are high risk stock. US on other side is improving on their economy as suggested by data and stock market is at all time high. Coming back to Indian technicals, as you all can notice on the weekly chart of Nifty that index has just crossed a strong resistance line this week which was connecting the previous two highs of last year. This is the strong trait for analyst like me. On other line it is travelling between the strong steep upside channel making us bias towards Bulls. It has been taking strong support at 5 Weekly EMA.  Weekly indicators are approaching OverBought Zone but yet still havent confirmed it. Looking at monthly chart we getting a bigger picture on nifty which suggest a strong up move still from here. So now i am surely avoiding any short term trading call on index and rather go long and sit tight for a month or so. 6736 is strong support for this week and 6497 for coming weeks.

Our recommendation: We recommend to Go long and HOLD with tgts of 7200/7480 with SL of 6500 on closing weekly basis

*Note: All the words mentioned in my post are just correlated to nifty and please take position on my recommendation after through study and consulting your advisor. Trade at your risk

#207 Nifty Update: Ab ki Baar, Nifty ko Maar

Indian Cricket stadium has always been electrifying for IPL but this time whatsapp and social media are more electrifying with youth taking interest in Election starting tomorrow. All the media apps, atleast on my phone, are flooded with Ab Ki baar, Modi sarkar one liners and Funny quotes. But on markets for next few weeks it could be dangerous slides that is why ‘Ab ki Baar, Nifty Ko Maar’. We have seen none stop electrifying run from 5933 to 6776 but now its time for some profit booking. In our last post i mentioned that 6780 is strong resistance and Nifty on Thursday resisted at 6777 which was just at the stop we mentioned. What made markets weak was bank license announcement which was just out of the box what traders expected. Two Finance company IDFC and Bandhan Finance were lucky enough to get the license. Many rejected applicants were dissappointed with the decision and why not as they were more financial sound than the approved applicants. This could bring some profit booking in the Finance space which had moved in anticipation of getting banking license. On global front, US payroll is increasing at a steady pace which could lead in cutting more stimulus as market seems to have been improving. Russia may enter recession if capital outflow continues due to political tension over Crimea. Coming back to Technicals, Nifty daily charts suggest a highly overbough markets. As we all could notice on the charts above it was in upward channel which could now be breached on Monday to give us steep downfall. It has closed below 5 day moving average for the first time in recent time to show biasness towards downside. Monday opening could hour would give a clear idea. If the opening of NIfty is below 6705 on Monday and if it even trades below that level for 5 points too than downside breached is confirmed. 
Our Recommended Strategy: We recommend traders to go short on nifty CMP: 6694 with tgts of 6586/6453/6350 SL: 6810 (closing basis)
Note: all levels are of Cash Nifty and we would recommend to book 20% profit at 6586 50% at 6453, 30% at 6350 to all are traders. Please rely on our recommendation after consulting your advisor and at your risk

#206 Nifty Update: Cruze Control your Equity investments

Oh Ghosh!! Traders would have piled off 50 points from the gain as we recommended to go short and stop loss triggered. Sorry for that but market is are strong uptrend momentum now. That blow off over 6550 was just untouchable for new trades. We are expecting same momentum to continue for 100 more points upto the range of  6770-6820. Looking at monthly chart and weekly chart this Nifty has no hiccups to downside any more. May be small jerk could come down in first 2 weeks of April which could be taken as buying opportunity rather than considering it a shorting opportunity. Bank Policy on 1st April is the next key even for domestic but i guess traders are not considering a important one this time around. Status Quo is what we expect in the policy as it election environment and RBI governor wont take any risk that could show any biasness to either political party. Markets are purely trending on political mood rather than any economic factor or fundamental factor. Indicators on daily charts are supporting move upto 6780 in near term where as on weekly and monthly chart we can expect a minimum move of 7300/7800/8031 in this calendar year. Before cruzing above 6800+ , we may expect a correctiong upto 6490 and 6260 which could be taken as long term investment opportunity rather than a shorting opportunity. We are bias on Upside on each dip.

Our Nifty Levels: R-6780-6830
                           S-6570,6450,6260

#205 Nifty Update: Flight Missing to 7300

Most searched or read news last week would be abt MH370 missing! It is sad that whole world couldnt track a missing plane. With the all latest technology combined together we cannot find a plane then whats the use of such technology? Same is somewhat with Indian Financial markets. All were ready for take off to 7300 but that group of Bull is missing on the bourse to take the flight ahead. We might see a U turn back to 6250 from here. All the news have been factored and now we dont have any even domestically upto 1st April which is RBI Policy. I personally not expecting any rate cut as that my give some favoring to Congress before election. So may be RBI governor play safe until one more policy. Technically Nifty has given some weakness confirmation as per our technical Indicators combination today. Now we may some profit booking from tomorrow which could even a sharp one to 6250. If you are my old blog follower than i had posted on 25th Feb 2013 on my post http://chartechnician.blogspot.in/2013/02/321-go.html that target on Nifty is 6550 and it has been achieved last week. Market is chewing around 6550 and now i am expecting it so slide dwn for a correction which could be as worse as 6082 that too in no time. RSI has turned negative and Nifty has closed below 5 day average after long time giving a short term weakness sign. MACD was already resisting to move ahead. Volumes have dried up and already IT sector had given warning sign of market turning around for the short term. Defensive stock such as HindUnilever and Asian paints were already showing positive sign which is bearish for stock Market. So we are a bit bearish for short term traders

Our recommendation: We recommend short term traders to SHORT Nifty CMP: 6483 with tgts of 6430/6340/6260 SL: 6550 (Closing basis)

Note: All levels on Nifty are of cash levels. All the words or phrase used are just for post purpose. We are not against or in favor of anything. Any resembelence to true event is not true. Avoid speculation from our post. It is purely related to Nifty Equity Market context

#204 Nifty Update: "Total Siyappa" by "Bull Gang" to win "Queens" mark by"300" points

This Friday was full of Entertainment for Indians, release of 4 awaited movies as i have mentioned in my tag line and Secondly they all combined, gives the Nifty rally same effect. “Gulabgang” (bulls here) with a mark of “300” (314 points range on nify last week) have won over bears to achieve ‘Queen” label (Life tym high on Nifty) with ‘Total Siyappa” (Total madness buying on the D-Street). A guy like me who is Film-o-Holic and Nifty Crazy would be on High after witnessing this friday. All the 4 films and Nifty have been hit till now. What we witnessed on the D-Street on Friday was total madness. Stocks which made the gang on D-street were two hot chameli’s of 90’s L&t and Reliance (as Madhuri and Juhi of Film Industry). We have seen some FII buying lat week in the stock but they bought more in Debt segment. FII figure aproxx was Rs. 3000cr net in equity against Rs.10000cr net in debt. So one thing is clear than even developed economies trust our debt products more than equity until the election results. As we have seen a tremendous breakout performance by bulls as marked in the chart, it thus proves technically that they are overall in control to take nifty ahead in long term. CAD figures were announced last week which has narrowed down sharply which is taken positively for the markets. GDP has been better last month YoY basis which gives compliment to market recovery signs. Now as code of conduct has been applied no new policies would be announced by congress but new banking licenses would be announced by EC soon while RBI policy is due this month end. We except a rate cut. Now all the demons for bear markets are left behind fundamentally. Technically, Nifty is in the third wave degree which is considered to be the steep rally. We might see some correction on daily charts which would be much deep though. A consolidated week may be expected next week.

Our Recommendation: We recommend safe traders to wait for buying level around 6150-6300 levels with than tgt of 7300. We would post soon when there is a clear buying opportunity. Safe traders DONT short

*Disclaimer: All analysis is subject to market risk. Study market carefully before investing on our advise. all the words mentioned are used with reference to market and for the posting reference only.