Category Archives: Nifty

#203 Nifty Update: Bears playing cricket while Bulls trending Nifty

Recent Asia series have been a disappoint for Indian cricket fans while at the same time Nifty has given some marvelous returns to traders. We have shown under-performance at cricketing field and also at the equity field but we have recently covered some respect on Nifty while we need to do alot at the cricket field. Our Final tgt 6310 on Nifty has been achieved against the Long call initated at 6000 on 4th Feb. Russia’s invade plan of ukraine had got hell out of the world but than it was relief when Russia called back their troops. GDP has been  better off for us and also trade deficit has narrowed compared to GDP which is a good factor to keep in watch for our economy recovery. Election date has been declared today which will start from 7th April and result will be declared on 16th May. technically all this factors have been taken positively by markets and we expect positive momentum to continue. RSI and MACD are in 3rd gear and are ready to gain full momentum while on the 4th gear before they resist at 5th. Index is trading comfortably above all the long term moving averages. As per Elliot wave 6398 is the first stop were Nifty could stop. We expect a consolidation or correction from the levels of 6400.

Our recommendation: Risk takers hold long with the tgt of 6398 and trailing sl 6266 while Safe traders could wait for some confirmed signal before taking fresh trade.

#202 Nifty Update: Off-Road driving by Nifty

Nifty was driving high speed on the road and it has just slipped off the road today. As you all can notice in the chart Nifty has just breached a strong upside channel today and closed above that level. It had been facing strong resistance at this line for last five times but on the 6th time it just hit a 6 out of the boundary completely. Our third tgt 6211 has been achieved on our long call on Nifty re-initiated at 4th February. We have seen some re-initiating buying interest by FII in indian stocks. High delivery positions have been witnessed in the fair valued stocks in Index as well as in the mid-cap sector. Economy around the world has been showing some signs of improvement starting with the Euro zone. Portugal has seen 1.6% growth and Moody might give it a stable rating from Negative stable. UK has given some growth at 0.5% which is better than nothing. Still Japan is in deflation mode and it is trying turn themselve. Can Abenomics save them? April will say!!! Indonesia is the economy to watch in this next cycle. People say that it can outperform emerging markets in terms of Growth rate from this point. Coming back to Nifty technical it has just taken strong support on 50 Daily SMA and for the 2cd consecutive day it has closed above 100 daily SMA situated at 6163. If Tomorrow it closes about the same level than it gives confirmation for the bulls. Nifty has seen some increasing trend in the volumes in last three session. Expiry being tomorrow, its gonna be a high volatile session.

Our Strategy: We are intact with the Hold on Long with final tgt 6263 and a Extended risky tgt of 6310 . Trailing SL comes down to 6100

#201 Nifty Update: Budget gives "U" turn at the Verge

After long time we are back to our post run but since our last post #Nifty was pretty range bound which didnt gave us a chance to write something new on the blog. Today our 2cd tgt 6131 on #nifty has been achieved on long call initiated on our #200 Nifty Update. Yesterday Nifty gave a ascending triangle breakout on Hourly chart which was coincided with the Ascending triangle breakout on daily chart today which is giving probable target of 6160 on the daily chart. Indicators have turned positive on daily charts while weekly chart indicators are still flat indicating a neutral position. A interesting pattern which i can notice on Weekly chart above is a symmetric triangle which is also known as spiral formation. As name suggest a spiral which travels between two end, same is with this chart of Nifty. A week before it has bounced back from support level and now it may travel to resistance line on the upside which could be around 6240-6280 levels. A gap is also unfilled at the same level of  resistance which makes it a much possible tgt on upside. On downside Nifty even bounced back from 50 Weekly SMA (blue line) which made it a strong level with the support line. FM announced a interim budget which was a mixed bad but was consumer friendly which reduced excise on cars and also raised subsidy targets for Fuel and Food. Earnings of frontline stocks have been in-line with the estimated or to say better than estimates. IIP, Inflation and CPI has improved in favor of markets which is supporting Nifty Rally. So now only trigger from fundamental side could be Election.

Our Strategy: We are intact with our previous Long call with next activated tgts of 6211/6263 with trailing SL on Long of 6030

#200 Nifty Update: Counter attack at the Border

A tough war at the Border Line of Nifty between Bulls and Bears!!! Last two session has brought some important pattern of Candlestick out which is known as “Bullish Counter Attack” as circled which is that a bears Close and Second Bull candle Close are the same level which has happened on Nifty and Sensex Today. And interesting all this action is taking place at 200 DMA which is at 6000 so we can say that War is at Borderline and Bulls have came back with a force at the right tym. But will they able to enter back the borderline and overcome bears??? Fingerscrossed!!!! This spill on Index was largerly due to global factors such bond defaulter or you can say weak earnings at the DowJones Index. But for us what matters is 6000 mark which is a Psychology level and also a strong level of 200DMA. We did mention to go long on our last post But sl which was at 5998 has been broken on intraday level and not on closing basis. We have been mentioning to keep SL on Closing basis but anyways still you havnt missed the bus as its standing jst near to where you left.

Our recommendation: We recommend to Hold longs or stay on long side with revised tgts of  6060/6131/62114/6263 revised sl:5960 

#199 Nifty Update: Hanging on the verge of Peak

On our #195 Nifty update we recommended tgt of 6070 on Nifty Short which has been achieved today and i guess you guys would have atleast booked some profit. Now future path on nifty looks lil bit dicey after carefully studying banknifty chart. Ofcourse Weekly charts and Monthly charts are looking still bearish but we are smelling some internal pull back from the daily charts of nifty. Firstly, As you all could notice on the chart Nifty is travelling in downside channel and today it has just managed to cling on the peak of support line in Channel. Technically tomorrow is important day for Nifty analyst as closed would be important for weekly candle as well as monthly candle. Secondly, Considering only todays candle it is a hammer or you can say a Dragon fly which is a sign of a reversal for a short term. And Finally, if tomorrows opening is little positive above 6082 than we could see a Morning star reversal after tomorrows close. Yesterday, FED tappered more $10 Billion  from its bond buying programme which helped markets to crash today morning but fundamentally you think its good news for Economy as tappering is sign that FED is smelling a recovery in its Economy. Our results have on other side been hawkish and unable to decide the state of economy. Our markets are majorily for National Election rather than Economic recovery. So coming back to Index for near term we are expecting a short recovery of 150-200 Points.
Our recommendation: Book 100% profit on our short Call near our 1st tgt 6070 and we recommend to go long near to same level with tgts of 6125/6170/6230 SL:5998

#198 Nifty Update: Evening Star on Index

Earning seasons have been lil disappointing till todays market session but than Reliance industries have presented a better than estimate results after market. TCS on other hand gave a better than expected profit but it was not able to meet its dollar guidance which banged stock of the radar today by traders. HDFCBANK and ITC presented results in-line with estimates so not much volatility on that counters. But on Nifty daily chart today i just noticed a kind of “Evening Star” pattern on daily chart which is complimenting our weekly bearish call since 13th Dec. Technically nifty chart has been biased towards bearish trend in ratio of 70:30 against bullish. Nifty was comfortably trading above 5 SMA since last 4 trading session this week before today but now it has closed below the same on 5th day which may be a sign of some weakness from average. Now monday’s opening would be important for our existing short call. Next week strong support level is 6168 while resistance is at 6312. So if you guys have missed trade this week than take a short call if nifty opens up in positive range.

Our strategy: We are intact with our SELL call on NIFTY which we initiated in last 2 posts. 

#197 Nifty Update: Critical Range 6164-6328

All of sudden was drawing trend-lines on weekly nifty chart and came across two lines which are guiding nifty’s road. After market Inflation was announced which has eased with higher margin compared with last month but i guess last hour move of Nifty cld have discounted that. Technically indicators have all of sudden spurt up on daily chart but not much change on weekly chart. We would ask traders to keep 6164-6328 range in mind for this week as they are the guiding lines as you all could see in the chart

Our Strategy: We are intact with our SELL call on NIFTY where safe traders SL at 6358 and Risk traders at 6450

#196 Nifty Update: TICKET CONFIRMED

Bears have got a confirmed ticket to 5700-5900 which they booked last week wtih “Bearish Engulfing” travellers co. As you all could see “Rectangle” marked on top which suggest a perfect Bearish engulfing which is even confirmed with a lower low candle last week. As i said now bears have confirmed ticket but there is always 1% chance that bears wont travel i.e., there is always a chance of other side on markets. Infosys came up with better than estimate results and also a good guidance but it couldnt hold Nifty on higher levels. IIP shrank to 2.1% in November with 6th consecutive fall. So one thing is clear that our industrial economy hasnt picked up as markets expected and we may see some disappointing results this season. Technically, indiactors have turned weak on weekly chart joining bears to downfall. Since last 4 trading session nifty has been trading below 50 SMA which is at 6193. It has been acting as strong closing resistance level for the index. Long term investors start arranging cash to buy equity soon in coming months

Our Strategy: We are intact with our tgts and Short call as per our last NIFTY update.

#195 Nifty update: "Double Toppings on Nifty"

We all get excited when we get double toppings on Icecream or Pizza but i guess after todays close bulls wont be happy with the ”Double topping of Bearish Engulfing pattern on Nifty’s Weekly chart”. On other side Bears would be happy of the toppings. Now time will say who can digest this double topping..Bears or Bulls…Volumes on Nifty had dried up as Americans where on Christmas and New year celebration holiday. Yesterday we saw a basket selling and people had two reasons in mind 1) Rumors that Manmohan Singh would resign today (but he didnt) 2) People in Europe and America were booking profit after High NAV recorded on Financial Book Closure on 31st dec. Whichever reason you choose technical had indicated on 13th Dec Weekly closing and we did post on Blog to be short. Bond Purchase has decreased by $10 Billion/month which could also squeeze out  some liquidity gradually from market over some time. High Inflation is persisting in India which could trigger a rate hike in next RBI policy. On other hand Auto Sales have decreased for major companies in Dec which may be due to Inauspicious days as per Hindu belief. IIP are still pitched at lower levels which is not cheering for our economy. Earning season is about to commence and we expect intact growth and not much of flourished profits as our rupee had been stable around 62 which wouldnt have bought much profits for IT and Pharma sector which are dependent on foreign income. So we expect some profit bookings by short term traders on Nifty but we cant measure the extent of profit booking on downside i.e., it could be deep or even consolidation. Only good thing going around in Indian economy is FDI reforms. FDI in railway could be a surprise for markets and good for Indian railways. Parliament even approved some of the investment such as TESCO and vodafone 100% hike in Indian unit. Linking some inter market analysis, Gold chart is showing some bullishness which is a sign of downside in equity though not directly correlated in short term but it could trigger some bearishness on stocks. Coming to technicals, if we consider a bull wave to end at 6415, than we can see some extreme downside as we mentioned on last nifty update post. But for short term we have again got a chance to Sell nifty with some stop loss. Nifty is taking strong support at 50 SMA at 6193 on daily chart. RSI has turned negative. So now it seems Daily chart is also supporting negative biasness seen at weekly chart since 13th dec.

Long Term Traders Strategy: We are intact with Short call initiated on last post with tgt of 5970/5750 and SL 6415

Short term Traders straegy: We recommend to go Short (CMP 6211) tgts 6072/5970/5895 SL: 6360

*Note all levels on nifty are Cash levels and trade at ur risk with careful study. We might have recommended this strategy to our clients and we dont have any personal position. My analysis is biased to technical analysis.

#194 Nifty Update: "Dark Cloud" covers Market and 430/688 points rain expected

Rain in winter is unusual but for the markets this COULD happen, so now carry a RAINCOAT i.e., put option to protect you portfolio for new 2-3 months. Last five session has been continuous downside and that was like a slow poison to traders as slide was a bit everyday. Looking at ‘Weekly chart” after today’s close i was shocked to see a strong negative candlestick pattern “Dark Cloud” cover. This pattern suggest a reversal to bullish trend and this time its more relevant as its at a “Clear top”. Indian Economy hasnt improved as expected or as market has discounted. Yesterday IIP were worst than expected at -1.8% while inflation was at the peak at 11.42% (approx). RBI is expected to hike rate in upcoming monetary policy while FED is expected to start tapering of Bond buying which will squeeze some liquidity from the markets. One more reason to see some profit booking around the world and India is the financial year end for US which makes FII liquidate their investment to adjust Balance Sheet. But one good thing for me is that a new high was in December than rather November because History says if a new high is in november than we see a downside for a long term but this was not case for us this year. Earning results would be announced next month and i am expected a little hazzy profits as auto industry hasnt seen sales as expected in diwali festive. Now coming back to technicals, Weekly chart has surely given a negative candlestick pattern while indicators are also bending negative. Nifty took strong support at 5 Week EMA which is also a strong support was next week. On daily chart we may see some short covering as we have seen 5 straight down side. On monthly chart nifty is trading below the resistance line. For bulls in power this expiry should close above 6288. From the elliot wave point, this was end of Wave 1 from 4624-6415. Now we expect correction of 430 points minimum to maximum 688 points if nifty trade nxt week below 6145-6152.

Our Strategy: SHORT Blindly below 6152-6145 and Sale on Raise with SL of 6450.. Downside targets for next few months 5950/5750/5470