In my last post i mentioned to be cautious until nifty breaks the range of 5884-5921 and nifty did break 5884 bt didnt close below tht and on other side today nifty has closed above 5921 today with a “bullish engulfing” giving some strength to our bulls in the market. As i had suggested on nifty on 8th Feb tht it would be dangerous if the market break the green thread trendline, but with traders grace we havent seen tht scenario yet. GDP number and IIP data has been weaker but i guess people had expected tht and discounted it through 6100-5880. Now for risk takers i would suggest to long tomorrow if nifty opens positive. Go long only above the level of 5931 on cash nifty. And for the safe traders 5964 is the level to enter. So now the tgts on Nifty are 5964/5990/6015/6052/6100 .But guys keep a strict Stop loss of 5884 on closing basis. New level to initiate short is only below 5862.
YES i got the answer to my post of nifty yesterday, Ans: “NO”!!! 5927 was the new low and the tgt of double top 5921 was achieved today. If you are regular trader and tracking nifty thn you would have noticed today tht NIFTY created 5921 low thrice in intraday and reversed. Someone would have thought it was a triple bottom but so was not case. As i was tweeting and updating tht this level was last chance to square off long n blindly go short and the same thing happened. 5921 was breached at around 2.45pm and thn we saw low of 5883.90 on nifty. Yeah thts true in morning i was positive on the markets as it opened positive and open was equal to low but as soon as tht was breached it was clear tht nifty could nw achieve double top tgt. But now if u havent gone short dont risk it on monday opening as there is something positive around the chart . The thin green support line is stretched from the low of 4770 and you could see market has taken support today exactly at same level. Now what next?? Indicators are indicating weakness but price takes a support. Now nxt level to go short is below 5889. But now i am not expecting much downside. max it could go is 5832-5862. So its better now to wait for nifty to take support to buy more and on other side go long above 5961. So strategy for un-positioned trader now is to wait for 5832-5862 or 5961 and for people who are short keep stop loss of 5921 and book profits in the range of 5832-5862. And for the people in the Long still, keep 5889 a strict SL
As i intimated in my last post tht #nifty could see some slide down to 5944 n today it was almost achieved today. Just forgot to inform you guys tht whtever tgt i give on nifty, you should consider +/- 5 points as most of the traders follow technicals and sometimes all of them get common targets. Anyways coming back to NIFTY chart today i have seem some development of strong support if i consider only RSI. But taking into consideration “small double top” at 6101-6111 , 5921 is inevitable target. Even a medium term average is exactly at 5921 today. But 5947 was also a important support. So now next 2 session are gonna be crucial. Taking into consideration my Time analysis, 6th or 7th Feb could be the turn around day or you can say crucial day which could have a breakout on either side. So if the market make low in the range of 5921-5944 n see some upide thn go long blindly in next 2 days and on other side if you see close below 5921 in next 2 days thn go short blindly. I am biased on bulls to return within next 2 days. Will post you guys back once i get some confirmation.
Last i updated my blog for NIFTY was on 22cd October with above graph when Nifty’s close was around 5717. I had mentioned in tht graph that we may see new tgt in nxt rally with a pause around 5947-6045 and guess what todays high on nifty is at 6043 😀 :). And adding a cherry on the cake is the “bearish engulfing” pattern today, indicating some correction to the index which was what i expected.. But fingers crossed!! Confirmation is yet to come tomorrow. Looking at some charts of the A group a small correction is expected on all of them but the mid-cap index strong. To add support to mid-cap, steel sector was flooded with some good news of increase in import duty of steel from china which wld divert buyers to indian companies and could profit from them. Secondary steel companies have raised the price. So now next rally could be lead by steel and mining sector. Talking about nifty, i suggest you to be short with tgts of 5944/5830/5630 and stop loss of 6050 (Cash levels)
Since last 9days we all gujjus or even those who love garba might be humming the song in tagline ..but i changed it to the moods of Market traders in current trend. Yes, Bulls story is long lived ahead in the market from here. We have been consolidating between 5633-5724 since quite a long. According to eliiot wave as i have marked in the graph above we may have 2 possibilities from here 1) We breakout on upper range i.e., 5724 and achieve 5947 or we drawdown to 5450 and consolidate more between 5450-5817 before getting to 5947. Looking at the markets in global sphere it is highly volatile and we cld see that we are really undecided and hve to wait this week to end. RBI policy on 30th Oct is an important one to look forward.next week. A rate cut of 25bps wld move market upto 5947 from here on. Tomorrow we have a trading holiday so todays mark off from the highs in global market can be counter discounted by its move tomorrow. Indicators on weekly chart are +ve while daily chart are mixed bags. Earning season has been pretty comfortable till now for Investors to digest. So as i said now this weekend close 5633 or below tht wld decide the move further. So strategy for next few days is sit and relax ur legs as you might have played a navratri 9 days if not relax your mind as i am sure u wld have been frustrated due to range bound movement…But dnt worry “yeh tofan ke pehle ka sanata hai mere bhai”…but u nvr knw tofan (move) cld be either side.!!!!!
Since NIFTY has bounced from 5216 to the heights of 5720 last week ,bulls are showing attitude like Kareena Kapoor and are murmuring “Mein Heroine Huin”….but remember tht same attitude got her down…Arjun Rampal (HIndustan Unilever) has already started moving against Kareena (bulls in our case). NIFTY thinks Randeep Hooda (HDFC Bank) could save her. Now all depends on her move tomorrow. All the major economies have announced monetary easing plans. My last post already mentioned above plans by ECB, FED and India, but china followed and so did japan. China has announced road building of about 2000 kilometers to boost employement while japan has raised its easing limit by 10Trillion yuan to 30Trillion yuan. But both the number countries Japan and China are fighting over the ownership of island pvt owned by Japan businessman. This has affected japanese companies operating in China. Where everything was gng fine in financial world some social cause has spurt up. Consumer confidence has increased in USA. Sentiments are bullish for long term for sure but i am expecting some profit booking in markets around the world .Technically speaking NIFTY is trading in sweet elliot wave formation. NIFTY is in Currently forming 4th Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Higher bull run as u can notice in the chart. Indicators and Oscillators are trading in overbought zone on daily basis while its flat on weekly basis and bullish on Monthly charts. Bearish engulfing had been witnessed today on nifty daily chart which is suggesting a reversal or consolidation in the current uptrend. So if the NIFTY opens up below 5650 and trades below the same level than go short with stop loss of 5701. Targets on the downside are 5601,5527,5468 and 5408. Profit Booking levels wil be 5585 and 5492 on the slide. So lets c whats the next publicity stunt by Bulls to save their last chance tomorrow..Fingers Crossed
Markets were flooded with the news in last 10 days and guess what, this flood was happily accepted by the investors as it was all soooo goood!!! Draghi announcing unlimited bond buying —> German court ruling in favor of ESM—> QE3 by FED —-> FDI in retail. This was the sequence of news which gave confidence to the investors around the world. Technically as i had mentioned in my last post that breakout of the range 5211-5261 will decide the trend further and so was the case. Market made low exactly at 5216 (5211 was downside range brkout) and then broke 5261 on upper side we saw non stop rally to 5650. But as the rule says all the things whether it be news or events or product or technology all has two sides. So is with all of the gud news above. All are wit condition* applied. Taking it one by one 1) Unlimited bond buying is ofcourse a gud thng but it says crisis affect country shld apply for the bailout and such countries have ego problems and thy arent applying for bailout 2) QE3 looks positive but it means printing money whch in return increases inflation over the world and dollar will depreciate against another currencies 4) FDI in retail was cheered by indians bt thy dnt realise tht our brothers and sisters will lose many business in retail. above all the final decision is left to respective state government whether to allow FDI in retail or not. So we can realise tht none of the above gud news are confirmed yet bt chances are tht it wil turn out to be gud. EU nor world wants crisis to unfold so they will save countries by hook or crook. Sentiments amng investors have surely turned positive. Now technically as u can see in above graph market is trending in form of elliot wave principle. A “spin body” formation yesterday with a lower “Doji” today signals some profit booking in the market. As wave four suggest maximum it can come down is 5447 whch in turns fills up the gap too. So strategy on nifty is that we buy for long term whn markets starts sliding below 5500 while short term traders go short with tgt of 5450. NIFTY supports at 5587,5558,5534,5510,5495,5447 resistances at 5632,5658,5676,5701
My post on 23rd Aug titled “Choona na Choona na aab mein overbought ho Gayi” i initiated short on NIFTY at 5420 with various tgts, last being 5216 which was accomplished today.Today NIFTY made a low of 5215.70 jst at my tgt of 5216. This down-slide was accompanied by “Coalgate” scam and weak Manufacturing numbers from Global markets. But to note some +veness in the market is the Retail Sales in US and Europe and the consumer spending index last week. Both has shown some improvement which is gud sign. While on other side Service PMI has also seen some significant grwth bt all are still below 50 level mark signifying recession. Its said whn economy takes a turn around , consumer retail sector leads the recovery. So we can say that consumer confidence is increasing and thts a good sign for the world markets. On other side labour productivity index has increased to 2.2% which is giving a strong base to retail confidence. Labour expense has also increase by 1.5% which inturn gives more purchasing power in hands of retail consumer. The cycle will be once again supplied with money at lower level whch will demand more goods which will affect the profit on companies balance sheet. Fire has been initiated , nw we have to wait for it to spread around the world. Now looking at capital good or heavy equipment markets, Car sales arnd the world has seen reboost growth of almost 10% except in Europe which is also a good sign. Talking about the hot topic EU, it could be saved nxt week and Draghi wld be the hero. He has said tht no limits to Bond purchase bt will surely take care no printing of money. So now lets wait for his plan tomorrow but we are pretty sure he will take step to save EURO.Cutting short my post lets come to technicals. Technically Nifty is in small downside channel but today it has filled up the gap at 5220 which was left unfilled in last rally. Taking into consideration Draghi plan we may see some boost from tomorrow. But NIFTY has traded and closed below 50 EMA today which is at 5261 so is the upside channel line. 100 EMA is at 5211 which is acting as a strong support. So next strategy on NIFTY would be on breakout of range of 5211-5261. Take position in the breakout direction, NIFTY supports at 5211,5198,5181,5160. Resistances at 5261,5291,5306,5332,5360