Category Archives: Nifty

#2 Article 3…2…1…. Go!!!!

Last time I wrote for “V-Share” was in September issue 2012 with title “ Nifty on a Hat-Trick”  and since then we have seen a good rally on the index as well as the stocks as I expected. Let’s have a quick look at my picks than:
As on 24th August 2012
As on 25th February 2013
Axis Bank
Maruti Suzuki
Bank of Baroda

Reliance Industries
Tata Power

So analyzing my picks above, we could notice that only 3 stocks underperformed the index while rest 9 stocks have out-performed. Just having a quick look we could notice that both the stock which gave negative returns are from capital good sector and Top performing stocks are from retail industries.  Basic cyclic wave theory suggest the same thing which has happened in last 5month’s bull run i.e., Retail sectors lead the rally and capital good sector is the last to rally. So keep a eye on good picks from capital sector though its high risk to enter them at CMP.
 Hell lot of things has happened since September last year at the domestic and global  too but all has factored in positively for the markets. Our new finance minister had just completed one month than but now after completing almost half a year we could see the result on the index. Increase in Gold import duties, rise in fuel price, rise in railway fares, FDI in aviation, FDI in retail, easing bank rates, Improvement in IIP data , Ease of Inflation etc all has been factored positively as people know that it is good for our economy to survive.
3…2…1…GO!!!  Just 3 days to go for budget to be announced and NIFTY like a racing car could speed up its movement post budget. Our current FM had presented Budget 13yrs back and I guess it had brought cheer amongst traders and same could be expected this February. Majority of the traders are of the opinion that post budget we could see downside but I am of the opinion that opposite could happen and we may see some rally post budget. Decontrol of the fuel price was taken as negative sentiments for some investors but if we look behind that we were infact late to do this. This was the biggest deep which made fiscal deficit valley deeper. As per my view was the right time to liberalize diesel prices. Coming to import duty than I am opinion that it isn’t the right way to increase revenue rather government should liberalize or ease export of agri commodities as india’s 80% of populitions main income is from Agri. But of-course people at the center are more experienced than me and would have some better plans in coming months and I expect 28th February to be a start to it.
Coming to NIFTY’s chart we could see that it has been in good wave since the low of 4770. If I am not wrong market is currently in 4th wave of the larger wave 3 of one more degree larger wave 3. Looking at the Indicator MACD , nifty is in the confused state while RSI is suggesting some pullback and bull momentum. This week of the year is always confusing for the analysts. On weekly chart of NIFTY 5820 is the strong support and it made low near to the same level today. This support factor has not breached by nifty since it is trading above the same since late june. So if this week we see close below the same than free fall could be upto 5630-5690 which could be taken as buying opportunity for long term rather going short. Overall we are ought to be in Bull run until nifty closes below 5400. Looking simply at the long term averages, nifty has been taking support exactly at 100EMA since last three sessions and below that we could see support at 5630 where 200 EMA as well as wave formation is taking support.
Stock picks:
I would like to make few changes to my picks .Exit BHEL, SIEMENS, TATAPOWER , IDFC ,WIPRO and Bank of Baroda. I would recommend to add Adani Enterprise, TCS, Dena Bank, Tata Motors, Ranbaxy and Ambuja Cement. I have few reasons for these changes. First of all i have introduced my exposure to cement sector and Pharma Sector. Secondly, have chose 2 stocks out of the index as they might out- perform. Thirdly, I have replaced few profit stocks of index with other safe index stocks to protect our exposure to non index stocks. 
Strategy on nifty:
For those who are already having some long position on NIFTY should average above 5950 or if we see weekly close below 5820 than should wait for the range 5630-5690 to buy more. Positional traders shouldn’t go short at any movement currently as I am not expecting more downside than 5630-5690. Close all longs at 5550 and go short only below 5400.  Next tgt on NIFTY is 6550.
Note: All the data and graph is as of 25th February 2013 closing
Disclaimer: I may have personal position in index and above mentioned stocks. Views and News mentioned above may have Errors and omissions. My views are biased more towards technical analysis. Please read and study the market carefully before investing on my idea. For any suggestion contact me on my email.

#145 Nifty Update: Positive always overcomes the weakness!!

In my last post i mentioned to be cautious until nifty breaks the range of 5884-5921 and nifty did break 5884 bt didnt close below tht and on other side today nifty has closed above 5921 today with a “bullish engulfing” giving some strength to our bulls in the market. As i had suggested on nifty on 8th Feb tht it would be dangerous if the market break the green thread trendline, but with traders grace we havent seen tht scenario yet. GDP number and IIP data has been weaker but i guess people had expected tht and discounted it through 6100-5880. Now for risk takers i would suggest to long tomorrow if nifty opens positive. Go long only above the level of 5931 on cash nifty. And for the safe traders 5964 is the level to enter. So now the tgts on Nifty are 5964/5990/6015/6052/6100 .But guys keep a strict Stop loss of 5884 on closing basis. New level to initiate short is only below 5862.

#144 Nifty Update: NIFTY seems weak but something positive arnd the corner too!!

YES i got the answer to my post of nifty yesterday, Ans: “NO”!!! 5927 was the new low and the tgt of double top 5921 was achieved today. If you are regular trader and tracking nifty thn you would have noticed today tht NIFTY created 5921 low thrice in intraday and reversed. Someone would have thought it was a triple bottom but so was not case. As i was tweeting and updating tht this level was last chance to square off long n blindly go short and the same thing happened. 5921 was breached at around 2.45pm and thn we saw low of 5883.90 on nifty. Yeah thts true in morning i was positive on the markets as it opened positive and open was equal to low but as soon as tht was breached it was clear tht nifty could nw achieve double top tgt. But now if u havent gone short dont risk it on monday opening as there is something positive around the chart   . The thin green support line is stretched from the low of 4770 and you could see market has taken support today exactly at same level. Now what next?? Indicators are indicating weakness but price takes a support. Now nxt level to go short is below 5889. But now i am not expecting much downside. max it could go is 5832-5862. So its better now to wait for nifty to take support to buy more and on other side go long above 5961. So strategy for un-positioned trader now is to wait for 5832-5862 or 5961  and for people who are short keep stop loss of 5921 and book profits in the range of 5832-5862. And for the people in the Long still, keep 5889 a strict SL

#143 Nifty Update: 5927 a new low??

NIFTY today was best for trading people as it gave movement both sides for traders to earn. But a important to notice was tht though GDP data were weak, we didnt witness a big fall which was expected. Does this mean that investors are still positive on the markets?? May be yes!! As per my chart analysis, Nifty  chart was going to give a turn around point today on either side and i guess it was the new low 5927! Now what next ?? hhmm… If the nifty opens above 5938 and trades above the same tomorrow than jst risk on the long side and keep a sl of 5921. Ofcourse we are not expecting a 500 point rally but 6100 is achievable. So now lets c whats the opening score tomorrow till than we cnt say mch on the niftys road ahead.

#142 Nifty Update: 6/7 Feb and NIFTY 5921-5944 could be the turn around point!

As i intimated in my last post tht #nifty could see some slide down to 5944 n today it was almost achieved today. Just forgot to inform you guys tht whtever tgt i give on nifty, you should consider +/- 5 points as most of the traders follow technicals and sometimes all of them get common targets. Anyways coming back to NIFTY chart today i have seem some development of strong support if i consider only RSI. But taking into consideration “small double top” at 6101-6111 , 5921 is inevitable target. Even a medium term average is exactly at 5921 today. But 5947 was also a important support. So now next 2 session are gonna be crucial. Taking into consideration my Time analysis, 6th or 7th Feb could be the turn around day or you can say crucial day which could have a breakout on either side. So if the market make low in the range of 5921-5944 n see some upide thn go long blindly in next 2 days and on other side if you see close below 5921 in next 2 days thn go short blindly. I am biased on bulls to return within next 2 days. Will post you guys back once i get some confirmation.

#141 Nifty Update: NIFTY tgt range 5947-6045 achvd!!!

Last i updated my blog for NIFTY was on 22cd October with above graph when Nifty’s close was around 5717. I had mentioned in tht graph that we may see new tgt in nxt rally with a pause around 5947-6045 and guess what todays high on nifty is at 6043 😀 :). And adding a cherry on the cake is the “bearish engulfing” pattern today, indicating some correction to the index which was what i expected.. But fingers crossed!! Confirmation is yet to come tomorrow. Looking at some charts of the A group a small correction is expected on all of them but the mid-cap index strong. To add support to mid-cap, steel sector was flooded with some good news of increase in import duty of steel from china which wld divert buyers to indian companies and could profit from them. Secondary steel companies have raised the price. So now next rally could be lead by steel and mining sector. Talking about nifty, i suggest you to be short with tgts of 5944/5830/5630 and stop loss of 6050 (Cash levels)

#140 Nifty Update: "Male Victim reports Noon Teasing in Mumbai"

Disturbed with the tagline?? Yes..its true..Traders are teased by Sensex and Nifty today, Infact since few trading sessions.Many hiccups in the trading range was noticed in the last few sessions and market players are not able to decide route clearly. Technically speaking the last bounce from 5583 was from a 38.2% level from the last rally 5215-5815. Looking at the Momentum indicator it is not clear completely whether the bulls are ruling or the bears that is why traders are “teased in noon”. Domestically we have all the +ve news spurring the rally but globally we are witnessing instability. US president’s election are the key thing to watch this month. talking about the technical strategy on Nifty, go long at CMP or at every dip with stop loss of 5585..Short term tgt cld be 5965 and we cld even see new high from her nailing this low permanently. So be cautious this series as it will be highly volatile. Better plan your diwali vacation and get charged up for new rally thereafter.

#139 Nifty Update: ‎"Bully" taro Dhol baaje…Dhol baaje…Dhol ke dhaam dhaam baje dhol….

Since last 9days we all gujjus or even those who love garba might be humming the song in tagline ..but i changed it to the moods of Market traders in current trend. Yes, Bulls story is long lived ahead in the market from here. We have been consolidating between 5633-5724 since quite a long. According to eliiot wave as i have marked in the graph above we may have 2 possibilities from here 1) We breakout on upper range i.e., 5724 and achieve 5947 or we drawdown to 5450 and consolidate more between 5450-5817 before getting to 5947. Looking at the markets in global sphere it is highly volatile and we cld see that we are really undecided and hve to wait this week to end. RBI policy on 30th Oct is an important one to look week. A rate cut of 25bps wld move market upto 5947 from here on. Tomorrow we have a trading holiday so todays mark off from the highs in global market can be counter discounted by its move tomorrow. Indicators on weekly chart are +ve while daily chart are mixed bags. Earning season has been pretty comfortable till now for Investors to digest. So as i said now this weekend close 5633 or below tht wld decide the move further. So strategy for next few days is sit and relax ur legs as you might have played a navratri 9 days if not relax your mind as i am sure u wld have been frustrated due to range bound movement…But dnt worry “yeh tofan ke pehle ka sanata hai mere bhai”…but u nvr knw tofan (move) cld be either side.!!!!!

#138 Nifty Update: Mein HEROINE Huin……

Since NIFTY has bounced from 5216 to the heights of 5720 last week ,bulls are showing attitude like Kareena Kapoor  and are murmuring “Mein Heroine Huin”….but remember tht same attitude got her down…Arjun Rampal (HIndustan Unilever) has already started moving against Kareena (bulls in our case). NIFTY thinks Randeep Hooda (HDFC Bank) could save her. Now all depends on  her move tomorrow. All the major economies have announced monetary easing plans. My last post already mentioned above plans by ECB, FED and India, but china followed and so did japan. China has announced road building of about 2000 kilometers to boost employement while japan has raised its easing limit by 10Trillion yuan to 30Trillion yuan. But both the number countries Japan and China are fighting over the ownership of island pvt owned by Japan businessman. This has affected japanese companies operating in China. Where everything was gng fine in financial world some social cause has spurt up. Consumer confidence has increased in USA. Sentiments are bullish for long term for sure but i am expecting some profit booking in markets around the world .Technically speaking NIFTY is trading in sweet elliot wave formation. NIFTY is in Currently forming 4th Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Extended 3rd Wave of Higher bull run as u can notice in the chart. Indicators and Oscillators are trading in overbought zone on daily basis while its flat on weekly basis and bullish on Monthly charts. Bearish engulfing had been witnessed today on nifty daily chart which is suggesting a reversal or consolidation in the current uptrend. So if the NIFTY opens up below 5650 and trades below the same level than go short with stop loss of 5701. Targets on the downside are 5601,5527,5468 and 5408. Profit Booking levels wil be 5585 and 5492 on the slide. So lets c whats the next publicity stunt by Bulls to save their last chance tomorrow..Fingers Crossed 

#137 Nifty Update: Markets Flooded!

Markets were flooded with the news in last 10 days and guess what, this flood was happily accepted by the investors as it was all soooo goood!!! Draghi announcing unlimited bond buying —> German court ruling in favor of ESM—> QE3 by FED —-> FDI in retail. This was the sequence of news which gave confidence to the investors around the world. Technically as i had mentioned in my last post that breakout of the range 5211-5261 will decide the trend further and so was the case. Market made low exactly at 5216 (5211 was downside range brkout) and then broke 5261 on upper side we saw non stop rally to 5650. But as the rule says all the things whether it be news or events or product or technology all has two sides. So is with all of the gud news above. All are wit condition* applied. Taking it one by one 1) Unlimited bond buying is ofcourse a gud thng but it says crisis affect country shld apply for the bailout and such countries have ego problems and thy arent applying for bailout 2) QE3 looks positive but it means printing money whch in return increases inflation over the world and dollar will depreciate against another currencies 4) FDI in retail was cheered by indians bt thy dnt realise tht our brothers and sisters will lose many business in retail. above all the final decision is left to respective state government whether to allow FDI in retail or not. So we can realise tht none of the above gud news are confirmed yet bt chances are tht it wil turn out to be gud. EU nor world wants crisis to unfold so they will save countries by hook or crook. Sentiments amng investors have surely turned positive. Now technically as u can see in above graph market is trending in form of elliot wave principle. A “spin body” formation yesterday with a lower “Doji” today signals some profit booking in the market. As wave four suggest maximum it can come down is 5447 whch in turns fills up the gap too. So strategy on nifty is that we buy for long term whn markets starts sliding below 5500 while short term traders go short with tgt of 5450. NIFTY supports at 5587,5558,5534,5510,5495,5447 resistances at 5632,5658,5676,5701