You might be laughing reading the heading that its GAAR and not NAAR. By NAAR i mean “NIFTY Accepted- Avoidance Rule”. This is to say because since the GAAR has been implemented, it was expected that market will see some sell-off but instead we have seen a rally of almost 5% on the index. This explain that NIFTY investors has accepted GAAR and have discounted the new well before. I do agree with it but you may find something interesting on the chart. Notice the downside channel. Today nifty has topped exactly at the resistance line and have closed with a Perfect Doji indicating that we may see some downside, if NIFTY cannot close above 5380 for nxt 3 sessions. This month is full of fundamental news with RBI policy on 14th, Parliamentary session on 23rd and Earning announcement. Technically Speaking we have seen a strong bounce back from 200 SMA (white line) on NIFTY. But you could notice that last rally has added 2 more gaps suggesting that NIFTY has to come back to that level if not in near term than may be some time in future. We could notice that short term moving averages (blue,green and Yellow) are near to 5285 which is also a important support level. NIFTY has rallied but none of the indicator which i study has confirmed the bull rally yet. Watching the events to follow this month it is expected that we may see a strong rally on either side from current levels. Strategy as per the chart would be going short at Current levels with a stop loss of 5420 on closing basis with tgts of 5285/5140/5050 4950-5050 is an important level to see because its the point where two lines of different valid channels are converging. And if the stop loss hits than you may go long above 5490 (closing basis).
Today is friday and am sure all bollywood lovers will be waiting for the movie “Agent Vinod” starring hottest couple but market investors watched “Agent Jaiswal” starring other hottest couple, our coal minister and NIFTY. Since two days we are hearing some rumors rather to say media has got hold of some CAG report stating that government has lost some 10.76 lakh crore (approx figure) in allocating coal mines to pvt companies in last 8 yrs. But the “agent” (coal minister) denies the fact that its not the case. This has opened a gate for one more scam in india which might be bigger than 2G scam but nothing yet confirmed. NIFTY is ofcourse supporting the negative news. My last three posts have been suggesting downside and yesterday we got support from the scam rumor. Even the Europe and China’s PMI numbers have came at the lows in last 4 years. This has hurt the global sentiment and we may see some downside or correction for a time being. Technically speaking NIFTY yesterday supported our view for downside. As you can see in the graph , 2cd Sign of bearish engulfing was witnessed while NIFTY is not able to close above short term moving averages (multi Color) since last few weeks. All the indicators, mainly MACD has crossed central line to support downside. Even if we take the last rally from 4600-5570 , we are getting 5100 as a strong support. 5100 has also came out to be a important support on downside channel. So for NIFTY my negative view continous. Strategy would be adding more shorts below 5100 (My first call on short was at 5570 and we added more shorts at 5380)and stop loss in profit which i mentioned at 5470 in last post has been revised to 5400 on closing basis. Enjoy the movie and keep trading 🙂
NIFTY Shorts which i had recommend around 5500 it still holds. Budget didnt bring any surprises for investors rather it was disappointing if you analyze it properly. Pranab “Mukher”gaya apne vado se… He may have announced some good norms for mining sector but for overall public it was disappointment. Now they are thinking of reducing subsidy of fuel which indirectly will bring burden on retail users. Secondly, he has increased duties on vehicles which companies have proposed to pass on to the customer. Thirdly, 10% more increase in food price will bring 30million more indian below poverty line. Fourthly, inspite for easing FII entry it has made more difficult or more clause has been added which will restrict foreign entries. This was just the overview which i understood but if you ask Chartered Accountants they will answer you in more detail. Technically studying the markets, NIFTY was in a downside channel even before budget day as i have marked above. Technically it gave a confirmation on close on budget day that it has more downside. HOW??? You could see that market closed below short term moving averages (multi color) on budget day and next day it opened and traded below that levels. So that was one more bearish side complimenting the channel move. But we may see final confirmation in this week when MACD which is at central line may confirm downside if we see some pressure tomorrow. I still recommend to hold your shorts of 5500 and add more shorts below 5156 which is the 200 SMA. Book loss in Profit on upside if market comes around 5380. Jai Ho
On my last 22cd February post on NIFTY, I had given a SELL call on NIFTY around 5586 and had given 5 downside support out of which 4 has been achieved. Now you might be guessing about my todays title: “When Simplicity wins over complexity”..why so??? This is because of the complexity of news and results of election we had in the market but just one SIMPLE and common candlestick gave the sell signal and we could earn almost 400 points on shorts in 15 days. My last post didnt mention about indicators nor moving averages nor pattern it was simply 2 candles that gave a sign. But now we need to take some complexity into consideration to decide the further move. As you could see in the attached graph we had a consolidation phase between 5424-5280 which has been given a considerable breakout today. All the leading indicators have confirmed downside while NIFTY is hovering near to 200 SMA at 5165. NIFTY has given the close below all the short term moving averages. Now the downside support 5090 is a strong support for 3 reasons ..Firstly, it is a channel support line which was a resistance line for almost 1.5 yrs as indicated in yellow color. Secondly, 100 SMA is place at almost same level. Thirdly, if you consider retrenchment levels from last months rally 5090 is an important level. So for those of you have missed to short or have booked profits can again short at 5170 and blindly short below 5090. Levels below 5090??? will be on my next post…Till than Enjoy NIFTY in your shorts as its summer arriving….But keep pants beside..you will need it above 5424 (stop loss).
“Ohhhhhhhh……………….” No1 can control that motion ever!!! NIFTY was trading well around 5600 until it broke 5586 which i mentioned as a crucial level and than we directly saw 5490 odd level. i had been craving and shouting that Short nifty on each rise as 5640-5660 was strong resistance and i hope you all got benefit of the same.NIFTY has given a non-stop rally of 1200 points and we were expecting a correction soon. Indicators were already showing overbought condition but today for the first time candlestick has given some bearish sign. As you could notice we have witnessed a “Bearish Engulfing pattern” on NIFTY daily chart today which is a strong reversal sign for the trend. All the frontline stocks drizzled like one is having diarrhea…. None of the stock were breaking during the downfall. Tomorrow being expiry we may still see a volatile session. Tomorrow’s opening trade is gonna be a important one. But overall am bearish on NIFTY..NIFTY has strong support levels of 5424,5372,5335,5220,5095. On the upper side still 5660 is strong resistance level but i suggest to hold your shorts with stop loss of 5660.. Dont get into longs until some better confirmation.
“oh fuck, how can i miss the flight?? How can i sleep at the airport“!!! That was the situation of the retail clients in the last rally. You all knew that 4500 odd levels was important level and i had recommend to buy 50% of long term investment but still you all were sleeping and missed the flight of NIFTY. Anyways if u missed the flight than you have to pay higher price for next flight or if u are lucky enough you may get the tickets at best deal so is the case in NIFTY this time. NIFTY has given various breakouts in last 2 months. This Tuesday we saw breakout of consolidation rectangular pattern at 5440 and markets touched 5536. But dont worry guys you can still buy but wait for the right time. 5536 is the strong resistance and if it breakouts out go long with stop loss of 5490 or if you are lucky enough you may see correction upto 5280 which could be a best deal to get into flight of nifty tough expensive than 4600 but you have to travel. Technically all the indicators are in overbought zone and we expect a correction any time soon. We saw today that reliance and many frontline scripts have showed some signs of profit booking but banking stocks lead the rally today. A bearish harami pattern has been witnessed on the charts and if the open is below 5510 tomorrow and closes below the same level than we can confirm the reversal on the candlestick. Talking abt the inflation numbers, they cooled off but it was because of the high base rate of last year and still we cannot see any improvements of company results. This rally was purely because valuations were attractive but we cannot sustain at this level without any strong fundamentals. But many analyst are in belief that this rally may sustain upto budget and we may see 5800 levels. They may be right!! So our strategy would be go long if NIFTY closes or crosses above 5536 or else wait for 5440 or 5280 level to get in.. Wait for my next post!!! Till than bye bye.
Hindalco has been in upward move even though it was downgraded by many brokerage houses. Hindalco gave almost 40 % return from its low in december. Now its turn for some brakes. Today in the opening, price gave confirmation to the formation of “evening star” on the chart. It is the sign of bearish reversal. Even the indicators such as RSI and Stochastic are in overbought zone. Even the stock has closed below all the short term moving averages and its near the 200 DEMA. If it gives a closing below 200 DEMA than expect a more downside upto 133. I had recommend selling the stock future during markets hours near to 156. Keep a stop loss at 162 with near tgt of 147/142.
On my last Post i mentioned “Dirty picture” for NIFTY but it was not much a dirt for the investors. My last post was on 17th Dec and than we saw NIFTY bottoming around 2% from there and bounced backed. Now as you can notice NIFTY has been trading range bound and in a secondary upside channel wave. I was waiting for channel confirmation to have new post and i got on Friday the 13th. Can u notice that last three candles have been a “DOJI”, expressing a tough fight between bears and bulls better than India vs Australia tour. We could notice than both upper and lower arm of the channel has been tested twice which is a great confirmation. The last upside has left two gaps unfilled at the bottom which is a second sign that markets may see some correction back to 4650. RSI and MACD indicators are still supporting a upside while stochastic is suggesting some correction before more upside. Stochastic has been in overbought zone. Earning season has start with INFY posting gud numbers but guidance was depressing for investors. On the other hand from tomorrow Foreign investors will be allowed directly to invest in our markets which will boost money flow in our market. But on friday after markets hour we received that moody has downgraded credit rating of many EU countries by a notch which signifies that yet Europe crisis is unresolved. On 24th Jan we have bank policy review which is expected ti bring CRR cut by most of the bank. dimag mein khichdi baan gayi??? Same is with all investors. All are confused what will be the next. So i feel market yet be range bound and move in this channel unless the channel breaks out either way. Channel range is 4600-4900. For next week be on short side with sl of 4900.
What you see in the chart is “The Dirty Picture” of our NIFTY chart…..your expressions might “Oh What the F***, 3980????!!!!! Yes guys……My last post on NIFTY suggested that we are seeing upside movement and blah blah…but you know us guys, we typical indians- even we expect Munaf patel to hit a six on last ball and save Indian and so i thought RBI can save us and our market. Last friday showed volatility of almost 200 points which is a sign of indecisiveness of our market sentiments. CNBC poll was expecting a unchanged policy from RBI so was the case but actual traders expected a 25 basis cut in CRR. RBI did intervene in Forex front to stop rupee depreciation but yet not any such move to save NIFTY depreciation. December is the month of christmas and New year eve which is one of the festive where people in US celebrate too possible extent and so they want liquidity. We may see more Capital outflow from our markets this month rather than inflow which is a but obvious. Inflation is easing but not to the extent which allows RBI to reverse is cycle. Manufacturing index is following too so nothing much to cheer for traders this tym around. I have even noticed a large open interest in 3900 PUT OPTION of February so overall sentiments have become negative. Technically speaking, the “inverted Head and Shoulder” which i showed in last post didnt get a completion but rather took a U-TURN. We could see on daily chart above (as well as weekly chart) that a Upside Head and Shoulder is completed on last friday and close has been below the neckline. So we could say that we are seeing some more downside with target of 3980 if the close is below 4750 for more 2 weeks. But but……nothing is impossible -Mission Impossible 5 Staring Pranab mukherjee as TOM CRUISE….yes…next two weeks are just last 2 secs of MI-4 before which tom cruise completes its mission..can our TOM CRUISE do something like that???…Techincally Indicators are positive while chart is negative so its the crucial moment in coming days….yeah but surely sell if the close is below 4578 for 2 days!!!!!!