Category Archives: Nifty

#106 Nifty Update: "THE Dirty Picture" but Ooh la la Ooh la la for PUT Holders

What you see in the chart is “The Dirty Picture” of our NIFTY chart…..your expressions might “Oh What the F***, 3980????!!!!! Yes guys……My last post on NIFTY suggested that we are seeing upside movement and blah blah…but you know us guys, we typical indians- even we expect Munaf patel to hit a six on last ball and save Indian and so i thought RBI can save us and our market. Last friday showed volatility of  almost 200 points which is a sign of indecisiveness of our market sentiments. CNBC poll was expecting a unchanged policy from RBI so was the case but actual traders expected a 25 basis cut in CRR. RBI did intervene in Forex front to stop rupee depreciation but yet not any such move to save NIFTY depreciation. December is the month of christmas and New year eve which is one of the festive where people in US celebrate too possible extent and so they want liquidity. We may see more Capital outflow from our markets this month rather than inflow which is a but obvious. Inflation is easing but not to the extent which allows RBI to reverse is cycle. Manufacturing index is following too so nothing much to cheer for traders this tym around. I have even noticed a large open interest in 3900 PUT OPTION of February so overall sentiments have become negative. Technically speaking, the “inverted Head and Shoulder” which i showed in last post didnt get a completion but rather took a U-TURN. We could see on daily chart above (as well as weekly chart) that a Upside Head and Shoulder is completed on last friday and close has been below the neckline. So we could say that we are seeing some more downside with target of 3980 if the close is below 4750 for more 2 weeks. But but……nothing is impossible -Mission Impossible 5 Staring Pranab mukherjee as TOM CRUISE….yes…next two weeks are just last 2 secs of MI-4 before which tom cruise completes its mission..can our TOM CRUISE do something like that???…Techincally Indicators are positive while chart is negative so its the crucial moment in coming days….yeah but surely sell if  the close is below 4578 for 2 days!!!!!!

#105 Nifty Update: Inverted Head and Shoulder

NIFTY is back in mood so is Me in updating my blog. NIFTY has seen a downfall  towards 4650 after i last updated my blog. Same time last year we had seen a yearly high in 2010 can this time it be a yearly low in 2011???? I strongly believe yes it could be. But i may be even wrong thats y i keep a stop loss to my trades.  I had been constantly saying BUY -BUY on my twitter account (@NIFTYbykush) when the NIFTY made low 2 consecutive days at 4630 odd levels on 23 and 24 of last month. Short term investors would have got handsome returns. Oh common dont feel that you have missed the bus. U can still jump in on every dip as i feel now that 4900 will be the bottom support. We may see range bound movement until 9th Dec when brussels meeting is held on. But seeing the global sentiments and political steps in last one month, i strongly believe that some positive vibes are waiting further. All the global indices charts are currently in favor of bulls in short term which could be a signal of bottoming out. Banking sector and Metal sector will be the leading our markets rally. Why banking?? 1) Short covering 2) it is expected that CRR will be reduced which will improve liquidity in market to tap inflation and metal sector because it was the most beaten after banking sector in last downside. So you may take positions in selective stocks in such sectors for example HDFCBK, AXIS BANK and ICICI Bank while in metal sector TATA STEEL , STER and HINDALCO. Technically speaking on NIFTY daily some characteristics of “INVERTED and Head And Shoulder” has been witnessed which on breakout will give a tremendous rally. Volume are increasing on rallies while decreasing while the fall which is also a characteristic of inverted H&S. So i am bullish on markets but obvious keep a strict stop loss. you never know what could happen in the world markets.
Important Levels:- R-5124,5172,5252,5326,5400,5525

#104 Nifty Update

100 points gap filled up!!!! Today NIFTY made a low at 5205 which completed the gap of last Friday. NIFTY was as unique as RAONE but difference was that NIFTY hold up the good sentiments while expectation was bearish due to global turmoil last nyt while RAONE was totally opp where expectations were high but was RA-0 ;). NIFTY chart is indecisive as the Greece bailout. Greece has asked for referendum of the bailout and m happy they did that.  I read an interesting article in New York times which illustrated in a graphical way that what each country owes to one another. And interestingly I found that US is the biggest beggar of the world. They have borrowed $14.5 trillion which is 100% of their GDP while they have landed in all just $11 Billion. And talking about Greece, its GDP is just $0.3 trillion and Debt of $0.7 trillion. IF such a little country like Greece can create such a crisis than just imagine what will happen if US goes into recession or any other bigger country for example say Italy who is feared next after Greece with $3 Trillion debt??? Sorry guys am not fearing you but just warning you the extent of this crisis.
Technically speaking, As I said 3 days back, NIFTY had to fill up the gap and it did sooner than expected. Now we face strong support of 100 DEMA and support line at 5180ish levels. On the upper side we have 5450 and 5610 as strong resistance. If 5170 is broken in near term than you may see 5114 acting as a strong support. REMEMBER we have 30 points gap at 4827 level and ofcourse it may even take days, weeks or even years to fill that gap!!!!
Strategy:- Prefer banking stocks for next 2 expiry and avoid Automobile and IT sector. 

#103 Nifty Update

Happy New year to all traders!!! NIFTY can’t have given you better beginning than this. Rather we can say Europe made our Diwali. Now you might be thinking what next on NIFTY?? NIFTY chart has turned towards bullish counter after good sessions last week. MACD has been showing strong positions of the bulls. We could see “Double Bottom” breakout on the NIFTY at 5172 which I had been mentioning as a important level before my break from Blog. Now we have two strong resistance at 5450 which is a trend-line resistance from previous tops and then at 5610-5624 which is the tgt for double bottom breakout and important resistance line two. We may see a pull back once from 5450 to 5200 to fill up the gap and then nifty might rally towards 5610. Stochastic has already reached the overbought zone while RSI has been approaching overbought zone. Keeping the technical aside, we have positive news flowing in the market. Greece debt has given 50% hair-cut. Its sounds good but is it really the way to bailout the debt??  Want it affect the bank who wrote off?? And remember only Greece Problem is solved but still other PIIGS countries are in trouble. This may be a temporary positive blow in the market from the foreign side. Talking about Indian growth story, we still have High food inflation while other factors have started cooling-off. It  is expected that IIP will be better off now and inflation will start cooling off in coming quarters. Bank rate hike cycle has been at peak and RBI has signaled that there want be any further hikes in December but you never know them.  So hold your longs and short term investors can book profits around 5450 levels and get back at 5200 levels.
NIFTY levels for 31st October:

#102 Nifty Update

§  NIFTY Close:
Investors in Garba mood!!!! Today NIFTY fluctuated from Positive to negative giving a start to Navratri Today. NIFTY closed near to my support level of 4945 down by around 30 points. We expect NIFTY to remain same tomorrow.
§  IN- HOUSE Updates:
1.        ADAG had a Annual general meeting yesterday and Anil Ambani promised many new ideas which made its shares who had lost almost thrice then what index lost last year to recover in this 2  session. He said that many companies from foreign are seeing interest in getting stake in its AMC and Nippon deal is almost final. He even assured that Tower business of R-Com will be sold soon and promoters are likely to increase their stake to maximum possible limit of 75%.  So now I think Anil ambani got the vibes that ultimately he has to do something to save his companies…Where were u till now Mr. Ambani…anyways I hope that this gives a light of hopes to his group  of companies.
RCOM Technical’s:-
Rcom has been facing resistance near to 86 level and has a strong support at 72 levels which is making stock a range bound. On monthly basis stock has witnessed increasing volumes. Buy the stock on dips.
2.       Talking about the steel hero “TATA Steel”  it has been facing some beating from investors on the screen. But fundamentally we may see some good numbers this time around. Last FY we had many CAPEX but this year they have pressure in sales volume but they don’t have much CAPEX. Infact they have sales proceeds from the sale of its one arm of business. So I recommend buying the stock currently at this valuation.
Tata Steel Technical’s:-
On weekly chart we have seen a negative divergence of RSI and Price. Even a Doji has been formed on weekly chart. Stock has strong support around 418 levels so buy the stock on dips.
3.       In the Auto Industry, we have seen a great volatility in TATA motors after its split 2 weeks ago. India Sales of JLP is not cashing in much. Indian Business should be more pushed . Jaguar has low margins than Rand lover. So RL should be marketed more in markets like china and India. But analyst expect a good sales next FY for JLR in india and stock looks attractive at CMP.
TATA Motors Technical’s:-
On weekly chart stock has been taking strong support at 137 levels. Weekly    RSI and MACD has given a bullish crossover. On daily chart we have a gap downside around 148 level which will be the best level to buy the stock
4.      Coal India in trouble:- Coal India wagers have planned to go on  strike and have kept company in a great dilemma. They have demanded a bonus of Rs.25000/worker by October 10th or else they will stop working. Now if company accepts the offer then it will affect its balance sheet with almost about 4500 million rupees which is a significant amount and if they don’t accept then they will face company image. On other side even the environmental problem has been pending so now stock has to face beatings from the investors. Long term players can take this as a opportunity to buy.
Coal India Technical’s
Technically stock has been trading below all the moving averages and it’s at a crucial level. It has been seen that environmental issue has already been discounted so may see a bounce back from this levels.RSI and MACD has seen a bounce back from oversold zone.
There is the same story chewing in the global markets and that is of financial crisis.  But we witnessed a interesting interview of german chancellor saying that they have extended full support to Greece and it promised Greece visiting president that they will get bailout by next month from EU and IMF. Germany even said that they want Greece to be very much part of the EU. So we can expect a good month ahead in the markets all over the world.
As expected NIFTY has been range bound due to expiry tomorrow. I am noticing again a formation of Inverted H&S and neckline is at 5167. Head is yet to form. We have strong support at 4911 but we may see a intraday fall upto 4885. Therefore short term traders can go short once NIFTY is at 5167 in near term with a target of 4885. Long term investor wait for a bounce back from 5167.
NIFTY levels for 29th Sept:

#101 Nifty Update

§  NIFTY Close:
Nifty closed at 4971 way above the expectation almost 140 points up above yesterday’s closing. All the frontline script had seen a good movement except the few like Hero Moto, Tata Steel etc.
§  IN- HOUSE Updates:
§  Today a DBS report said that India’s 2020 Growth story will be achieved at ease and the leading  sectors will be education, Infrastructure and FMCG. I agree with it because we know that most of the Indian Population is below the age of 28 at present and importance of education amongst the country is flowing high. While on other side Infrastructure is a must for all so we may see this 2 sectors booming a lot. Education stocks are on downside today as they are in news but infrastructure stocks are a good buy at CMP. Stocks like HDIL
§  HDIL Technical’s:
                                                               i.      Stock has seen a strong support around the 96 levels and its currently trading around the short-term moving averages which is a sign of consolidation. Long term investors may buy the stock with SL of 90 as RSI has given the Bullish crossover.
§  As I have been mentioning about the consumer goods company, same thing has been nicely said by HDFC Securities that  they have seen a steep rise in numbers even due to pressure in margins. The key being the rural market penetration and now they expect that commodity prices will ease which will add a cherry on the ice-cream . So I too continuously recommend to have at-least one FMCG stock in your portfolio like HUL or ITC.
§  As I have already mentioned about infrastructure in first point, I want to add more from a CITI group report that south India is the hot cake for real estate. Prices have been stable but volumes have dipped. But banglore and Chennai have seen the best volumes. Mumbai has been worst hit in the infrastructure companies so go for the companies of southern India.
§  Steel sector has been in news and today JSW Steel declared that they might have to close down plant in Karnataka due to shortage of Iron ore. Already it has been downgraded by many firms before and today it was again downgraded by almost all the firms with the revise tgt of around 500. So I recommend you guys to exit the stock
§  JSW Steel Technical’s:
All the indicators are showing bears in the driving seat. It is trading below all the moving averages which is also negative sign
CMP:610 Downside tgt- 593,463
§  Titan Industries have seen a great fall in last 3 sessions majorly due to the fall in price of gold. But fundamentally it is getting stronger because of its various new steps. Firstly they are going to introduce low profile jewellery for middle class and they are penetrating the rural areas. They are getting a first mover advantage so they will get better sales figures. Secondly, prices of eyewear and watches are hiking which will improve the margins of the company. And lastly they have tied up with the Muthoot finance company in Andhra Pradesh which will provide customers jewellery  on finance with just 20% upfront payment. And of-course rakesh jhunjhunwala has this stock so we should also have this in our portfolio.
§  Titan Technicals:
Titan has been trading in upside channel since its listing and volumes are gradually increasing. Stock has been taking strong support at 200 DEMA. So I recommend buying on each dip
CMP:212  Upside tgt: 223/240
§  English banks have got a funding gap of $3.96 trillion which is huge and to finance them they are approaching mutual funds and other financial subsidiaries. So please god help us fight the crisis otherwise we will see 4000 on NIFTY for sure.
§  On other hand people are talking about growth story of china but if u all have not read then in a City named “Wenzhou” in china, have started witnessing sub-prime crisis. In last week 9 businessmen have ran away due to debt and that has left 1000 of employers in shock. Monetary tightening has made it difficult of SME to get loan from banks so they had approach local money lenders who have charged high interest. It is said that even selling of real estate haven’t helped them to repay. So guys china may see a downfall.
§  Europe and US are trading way above the support levels on the news that IMF and world bank are ready to help the Crisis affected countries. This news have sparked the momentum in stock markets across the globe and it is expected to remain the same for few more days. So people with long cheers!!!
§  Technically NIFTY has given a False “double top” as we couldn’t get a third close today below 4900 level. Today’s session was a gap up opening , now leaving a 3 gaps . NIFTY is at very crucial level and it is totally driven by foreign markets. Expiry is near and we may even see high volatile session due to the same in next 2 days.  Stochastic has turned from the oversold zone while RSI and MACD are showing slight biasness towards bulls. But now as we even have a gap below the current level be cautious in short term investment.
NIFTY levels for 28th Sept:

#100 Nifty Update

·       NIFTY had opened at crucial level of 4875 and then we saw a low of 4758. People would have been in panic but I had sensed a reversal as there was a negative divergence on the hourly chart. NIFTY closed at 4835 just 32 points down.
·       PIPAVAV-MDL deal at Halt:- After the written complaint by many private shipyard owners such as LT and ABGShipyard , ministry has kept the JV at Halt. This complains were regarding transparency of the bidding process. This JV could lead to Rs.1 lakh crore  order which is the reason ministry is going carefully ahead.
o Technically stock has seen a continues down side from the day this complains had been lodged. Volumes have been decreasing and many Doji’s are witnessed on the chart which clearly suggests indecisiveness between bulls and bears due to this uncertainty of JV. So avoid the stock until clearance of JV. If the JV is in favor of PIPAVAV then surely have this stock in portfolio.
·       Banking sector:
o Technically Speaking banking sector seems to recover soon as have seen high volumes today on the market recovery in the last. I would like to suggest you to go for HDFC Bank, ICICI , SBIN and Axisbank for short term as these will be stocks to lead the market.
·       Reliance KG Basin: Reliance has been in news since its dispute with the ministry regarding the cost at KG-6 basin. Stock has been beaten hardly and it is expected the reliance may be sued for wrongly posting the higher cost. It has not been able to achieve the target of extraction from the basin which it had promised 2 years back. So stock seems to be volatile.
o Technically stock had given the double top breakout at 800 with downside tgt of 840 which has been achieved today. I expect stock to consolidate at current levels between 750-800 until the clearance of its issue of KG-6. So avoid this stocl.
·      Greece has been the concern and it still remains the concern but we have seen a sharp recovery in many markets as EU said that if not Bailout then they surely will come out with some strategies to save Gree
ce. This statement got markets boomed on Friday and continued today. Most of the Greece banks holding government papers have been downgraded by a notch but still every1 hopes that EU will find a way-out. We should keep our fingers crossed.
·      IMF on 24 sept told that they are ready to help Greece and other Europe countries to fight this crisis. This one statement has given the global market hope of some recovery and we expect DJIA to open positive tonight. Futures of DJIA are trading way above expectations after the biggest weekly erase last week since 2008.
·       NIFTY has confirmed the double top breakout but still one more close below 4900 has to be given. Bulls and bears are indecisive since last 2 days and viewing the global market we expect and short term recovery. Technically NIFTY is very dangerous so don’t go short but risk taker may be long on NIFTY for a week with strict SL.
NIFTY levels for 27th September:-            
R-4885                 S-4818
R-4911                  S-4785
R-4965                  S-4760
R-4995                  S-4720

#99 Nifty Update

NIFTY has seen a blood bath since last week. And it seems to have changed its path from a Bullish reversal of Inverted H&S to more bearish “Double top” formation. Double top breakout had been seen and now target comes around 4650 if we see close below 4900 for 2 more days. But foreign markets seem to have seen short covering on the Friday so we might see some profit booking this week. Expiry seems to be too volatile this month. Now we could see that another gap has been created last week around 5150-5050 . So in total we have 2 gaps upside which needs to be fill up any time soon theoretically. NIFTY has been trading below all the moving averages since last week. Now question arises what NIFTY trades positive next week??? Don’t get carried away. Markets are expected to be bearish or range bound between 4900-5200. So breakout of any level by this expiry will decide the trend for next month. If we see global markets they are certainly in negative sentiments. Greece is expected to go bankrupt within next 15 days if they are not given a bailout. On other side EU have asked Greece to reduced budget deficit to get bail out. Greece did increase property tax but effect of that can’t be seen so soon. So Europe markets are expected to extreme levels next month on decision of whether Greece is to be given another bailout package or not. Talking about US, conditions are worsening. Obama has given a tax increase plan but that is only too extent of $400 billion and which too cannot avail benefits in reduction in short term. But I feel until employment doesn’t push up we cannot see any good things in US. Prominent Banks in America are getting downgraded by top rating commission which is also a downside. Bernake added more fear by mentioning that US economy couldn’t recover until mid-2013. But analyst says that Emerging markets such as India and China are ought to recover first as valuation are cheap but for sure first we will get affected against this turmoil. Rupee is depreciated to almost life time high while gold and silver are touching lower circuits. So we could conclude that we may see some downside in stock market in recent future but then we might recover fast than any other developed markets. Our strategy could be buying 10% of long term portfolio on every dips of 5% in your preferred stock. But surely be cautious on Intraday position next week. And yeah I prefer Banks and Steel sector at current valuation. Wish you all a Happy trading ahead!!!!!

#98 Nifty Update: NIFTY passed Away

NIFTY is the only 3rd person in INDIA after Sachin and Sensex to score 200 runs in ONE DAY!!! Today is my shortest message for NIFTY Diagnosis….Just one advise “Pack up your bags and go on vacation”…….No technicals nor Fundamentals will work for our markets…Just wait for Americans and Europe to settle until then sit quietly……Today i wont mention any levels for NIFTY tomorrow because its of no use…But hold your long term investment and add on each dips…..Market will be volatile and be CAUTIOUS …..Market may touch 4400 if 4780 is breached on long term…..

#97 Nifty Update

·       NIFTY had opened at crucial resistance which i mentioned at 5153 and closed almost flat and the session was range bound as expected. Market closed at 5133 down by 7 points.
·       NTPC to Exit:- NTPC to exit IVRCL consortium as they havent performed as requirement. Since last 6 years the company has not even to acquire any coal mine for which the consortium was formed. So avoid the stock.
o Technically IVRCL is making lower highs since its listing so you should exit the stock on rise
·       NMDC won:- I had mentioned about the NMDC takeover of legacy in Australia before 2 days which is been accepted by legacy. This implies that NMDC will get access to coal mine in Australia which will good for company currently as domestically environmental clearance issue is on. So it wont affect the companies production
o Technically NMDC has given a reversal from the downside. Monthly chart has given a bullish engulfing and Weekly chart is also suggesting a bull run ahead. You may buy this stock on each dip for the long term
·       Everonn sold stake to Dubai- Varkey Group: Everonn stock was in news as its MD is in Jail but they declared that they have sold stake to dubai group at a rate of Rs 543/share which is way below CMP. Therefore you should buy this stock for short term with target of 543
o Technically seeing volumes have increased tremendously since last few days. All the indicators are suggesting a buy while monthly chart has formed a dragon fly Doji which is bullish sign..
·      Coal Shortage: Power sector is facing coal shortage in the country due to mining constrain and not efficient transport facility. Coal India is the company to look out with NMDC for this sense. They both are the largest supplier of coal in India so they may get good margins which will improve their profits this quarter so have this stocks in your short term portfolio.
o Technically Coal India has given close above all the moving averages confirming the previous Dragon fly Doji. RSI has given bullish crossover while MACD is moving towards the central line. So you may buy the stock with SL of 370
·      Today is the deciding day for Crisis. FOMC meet is going to end today and results will be out around 2am IST. Everyone’s eyes is gonna be on Bernake. Be ready for the volatile opening tomorrow.
·      Housing data was out yesterday which came to low near to April in US economy. That was the major reason for the Downside of US markets yesterday. Today it will be a cautious market for US.
·       NIFTY has confirmed the Inverted H&S but we havent noticed a breakout yet. Volumes have increase marginally and Indicators are still on the bulls side. While PCR is around 1.06 which states Bulls and bears are equal in  strength. Now today’s FOMC meet output will decide the further trade in NIFTY. Hold my Long call on NIFTY with SL 
NIFTY levels for 22cd September:-
R-5153                 S-5107
R-5188                  S-5072
R-5209                  S-5040
R-5233                  S-4995