Category Archives: Nifty

#64 Nifty Update

:o :o…Shocked or cant believe??? that was the expression of many investors when they switched on TV while they were brushing because they saw SGX NIFTY trading 80 points down below 5400 at 8am. NIFTY opened at 5402 at pre-open on weak global cues and close at 5404.80 down 51 points from previous close. US debt ceiling bill was signed by Obama yesterday but he mentioned that ” i am signing the bill but am unhappy with deal” and fear that US debt market might be downgraded on Rating made investor bearish and saw US markets down by 2%. Ripple effect of last night session came on Asian markets too. We might see further downfall in foreign market as said by many analyst but they are underweight on Indian markets. They expect that Emerging markets such as Indian and China too be attractive and will see fresh buying before the Developed markets. Many queries were spurting at me regarding investment in NBFC’s and Banking stock but i suggest to wait. At presently banking stock are facing NPA problems. NPA has risen by 5 times on YoY basis as per a report in a newspaper while advances has declined in almost all sector except petroleum and housing loans. So earnings of Banks will be hurt this quarter but on the other side monsoon is expected to be fairly good all over the world and its expected that commodities price is to ease which will ease inflation which will results to end of monetary tightening by RBI. So i would suggest to avoid fresh buying in Financial Sector..rather go for COAL INDIA , ITC , TITAN , ONGC or SUNPHARMA in present situation. Technically speaking market has created a new gap down around 5435 on opening and again has shown indecisiveness between bulls and bears with creation of  “DOJI” today. MACD and RSI has given a clear sell signal but stochastic shows some upward move. A “top rounding” pattern has been seen in NIFTY which will be completed at 5240 levels. I suggests selling NIFTY on rise with tgts 5340/5280/5240/5200 sl 5586
.NIFTY levels for 4th August:-
R-5418             S-5380
R-5435             S-5356
R-5472             S-5320
R-5516             S-5280

#63 Nifty Update

Ssssshhh!!!!! Markets brought silence amongst the trading room… NIFTY opened in red and closed at 5456 down 60 points after making low around 5433. Global cues are indecisive which is making market range bound. US debt ceiling has been raised but still many experts raise question that is this the end of recession??? It is difficult to come to the decision that market could rally from here. Europe crisis are still on edge as Greece are asking for more money. Someone has rightly said in last Forbes India  issue that all such countries have been addicted to demanding liquidity. More and more liquidity bail out you provide more and more lethargic they will become in making some strict change in their management which could improve the future of organization/country. Domestically most talked is Mining scam at present which is affecting steel companies. Now many other state are also going to inquire same issue with the mines within the region..Is this going to bring out more companies in this scam????? All the results of last quarter are just average or below average not making any investor smile. But e-commerce is the most growing stage of the sector. A research says retail industry is 500000 crore market while only 15000 crore of it is e-commerce so wide scope in such sector. Technically speaking daily chart has witnessed a “evening star” pattern which is a bearish pattern. MACD and RSI has given bearish crossover. Today NIFTY  achieved both my targets 5472 and 5442.. Nxt targets are 5380 and 5340.
NIFTY levels for 3rd August:-
R-5472             S-5440
R-5516             S-5380
R-5544             S-5340
R-5586             S-5320

#62 Nifty Update

That was nice opening by Duo i.e., NIFTY ans Sensex to new month of August. NIFTY gap up on account of Positive news from US and closed 34 points up at 5516. Yesterday night bill of increasing debt ceiling in US was passed by both the house. This was the driving factor for todays positive markets globally. Now 2cd August is the deciding day for the US treasury department but i feel good news are already discounted so might not see a boosting rally but if the treasury department declares Default then u may surely see bears running in the markets badly but chance of that are very much less. Indian economy is disturbed on the Illegal mining in karnataka. On saturday karnataka CM resigned due to this scam on papers. Adani Enterprise covered back almost 7% today as company announced some disclousre stating less operations at mines in Karnataka and as we all know Adani owns mines in Australia so its production won’t be hampered. On the other hand Telecom sector scripts are seeing new highs on the raise of tariffs but selected companies in some circles. Every month we have some or other scam coming out in India…Till what time will this continue??? Scams are hampering corporate growth…Arent they?? Technically speaking market has closed below all the moving averages and RSI and stochastic has shown some chance of covering while MACD is yet flat
over central line. A third consecutive Doji has been formed on NIFTY chart which is sign of indecisiveness for the markets between Bulls and Bears. So i suggest yet to be cautious on fresh longs until tomorrow.
NIFTY levels for 2cd August:-
R-5544             S-5508
R-5567             S-5472
R-5586             S-5442
R-5616             S-5406

#61 Nifty Update

NIFTY was taken over by bears since Tuesday of the week. On Monday, NIFTY confirmed the morning start which I mentioned in NIFTY view of my last Sunday. But we could notice that for the second time in last 1 month NIFTY could not confirm its breach over the strong resistance line. That resistance in the graph has been validated 6 times in last one year which means that market yet not in full control of bulls. Last week RBI announced 50 bps hikes instead of expected 25 bps hike which failed to confirm bulls. Second biggest domestic news was that of illegal mining state of Karnataka. Many well known companies have been stated in this 2cd biggest scam after 2G scam. Companies such Adani Enterprise, Sesa Goa and JSW steel to name few are mentioned in scam till now. This has focused import of iron ore from outside India to continue production. Now next week 2cd August is the Deciding day for US debt market which will have effect on world economy. China and Japan are the major chuck holder of US treasury bills so they are praying that US doesn’t default the deadline. So wait for some more time to make fresh long positions. Technically speaking chart has witnessed two consecutive Doji’s of which latter being a “gravestone doji” supporting bears. 14 Day RSI has breached 50 level mark to 43 signaling a sell for NIFTY whereas MACD is just to cross central line for the bears. As I have been talking whole month about the “unfilled gap” at 5350 now its time for it get filled. With the current situation of market it seems market will for sure come down to fill it up. Strategy on NIFTY would be to sell with the SL of 5565. But be long on market only if NIFTY Closes above 5644 level thrice this week that too consecutive close.
NIFTY levels :-
S-5442,5408,5385,5350,5350,5190
R-5529,5555,5568,5586,5644,5702

#60 Nifty Update

Sorry people for not posting yesterday due to some prior commitments. NIFTY expiry was below 5500 which is a bearish sign. Today market close around 5480 levels almost flat with mixed sentiments with investors. Domestically today we had may major events which were stock specific. Karnataka Illegal mining scam today named Adani Enterprise which made stock fell 23% in no time. Karnataka government has banned all 40 companies in the states which has hampered the production of steel and are facing shortage of Iron ore. Companies have approached foreign mines owners for the import of iron ore for near term production. This is the second biggest scam after the 2G Scam. On other hand ICICI bank posted its result today and it was way beyond street expectation making stock boom in late hours of tradings. Globally US markets is trading volatile on fear of Debt crisis while European Index are trading in red as Italy, Spain and Greece are still facing challenge to stable their economy. Technically speaking market is in bearish mood which sees support at 5442 , 5400 and 5350 levels. I recommend to wait and watch on the NIFTY untill 2cd august which will be the day of announcement of US Debt market decision. Risk taker can buy a 5400 put and 5600 call to have a hedged position.
NIFTY levels for 1st August:-
R-5508             S-5442
R-5524             S-5408
R-5540             S-5380
R-5586             S-5345

#59 Nifty Update

NIFTY still in shock of RBI policy. NIFTY closed at 5546 after opening positive at 5588.  Fundamentally market does not have anything to cheer for so market purely trading on Technical levels. LT finance holding IPO opened today and closes on 29th july with price band of 51 to 59. IPO seems attractive but i feel its lil risky on such choppy situation of market but long term investors can surely subscribe to it. Talking about BHEL, company has posted good results but it was below expectation. Stock was down 4% consecutively for 2cd day. BHEL has support around 1732 so i recommend to buy on DIPS. Coal India is outperforming market. It is going to be introduce in F&O segment soon and Mining industry is expecting good reforms from the ministry so I recommend to buy stock on dips for portfolio pick with holding period  of 6months to 2 years. RBI policy came as shocking to the investors and generally public yesterday but a nice explanation was given by a RBI official in “MINT” today. he said when inflation is roaring you need to control either side of it i.e., supply or demand. nothing special was done by government to increase supply so RBI had to increase rates to control demand. And i think he was right because unless and until demand is not equal to supply you cannot control rise in price. Technically speaking market closed below 200 DEMA for 2cd consecutive day. RSI and Stochastic are signaling strength for bulls and might fill up the gap of 5350 in next expiry. Expect July expiry to between 5450-5582.
NIFTY levels for 28th July:-
R-5567             S-5525
R-5686             S-5508
R-5616             S-5472
R-5636             S-5442

#58 Nifty Update

NIFTY today showed condolence over the loss of INDIA at Lords ……NIFTY closed at 5574 down by 105 points…If NIFTY would have scored century yesterday at lords then it would have saved India but today it was of no use… RBI hiked rates by 50 bps which was the reason for the down fall. Maruti announced its result which was above expectations i.e., 566 crores profit against expectations of around 438 crores. While BHEL had announced results way below street expectation closing stock down 4% on the markets. JSW Steel just announced its result after market hours and it has beat street expectation with profit almost up by 33% (confirm figures on moneycontrol.com) so stock might see a jump in opening session tomorrow. Technically speaking market for the 2cd time didnt confirm the breakout of Resistance line of the triangle which i mentioned on my sunday’s bulletin. NIFTY closed way below import supports of
5635,5616 and 5581(200 DEMA). Daily NIFTY chart has even seen a tweezer’s top formation today making it bearish chart. Even RSI and MACD has almost confirmed bears in future. So avoid any fresh position in stock until confirmation.
NIFTY levels for 27th July:-
R-5582             S-5562
R-5616             S-5540
R-5635             S-5500
R-5663             S-5472

#57 Nifty Update

Finally bulls are heavy on see-saw game but India still struggling at Lords!!! NIFTY closed at 5680 with 46 points up. Today Reliance was leading the race for the NIFTY with the news on deal finalization and positive expectation of results today eve. Bank of India announced its
result and it was a way below the street expectations at Rs.560 crores vs street expectations of around Rs.700 crores. Sterlite Industries has posted a bumpy growth of 63% on profit on YoY basis while EBITDA was at 28% versus 25.5% on YoY basis. RIL was not yet out with results. The stock in news of Suzlon energy who sold 26% stake in hanseen at around 455 million pounds. It would have a  positive effect on suzlon’s balance sheet to some extent as they could lower their 10000crores debt. Key sector today was telecom sector with individual stocks like idea, bhari and rcom were up by almost 5-8%. RIL numbers are slightly above the Street expectations. Net profit was at 5661 crores vs 4800 crores on YoY basis while GRM increased to $10.3/bbl from $7.2/bbl. Technically speaking, NIFTY has given a confirmation to a preceding “morning star patter”. Today it gave breakout of a “symmetric triangle” which i mentioned in my sunday’s NIFY view. Now if the expiry is above 5650 then we can confirm the strength of bulls and see
the new highs for the market. I strongly recommend to buy NIFTY on dips with SL of 5540
NIFTY levels for 26th July:-
R-5705             S-5663
R-5749             S-5616
R-5770             S-5581

R-5806             S-5536

#56 Nifty Update

NIFTY has been too indecisive to decide its further trend. Bulls and bears are on equal side i.e., Bulls have a morning star pattern on daily chart while bears have a unfilled gap and strong resistance of triangle formation. All the major moving averages are hovering around almost same levels as written on the graph. RSI is on 56 and Stochastic on 34 indicating a bull phase but MACD which is a wider view is indicating bears yet. On the Fundamental side, globally Greece is bailed out which is a good news but domestically none of the companies are posting good results. RIL-BP deal was passed on Friday evening which can be a good positive news for the Indian industry. But on 26th july we have a RBI policy review and its expected to may hike rates by 25bps to control the inflation. So now we have to wait and watch for the further move. Markets bull phase can be only confirmed if it closes above 5660 levels for 3 consecutive days in next week. So strategy for the NIFTY will be deferring from individual to individual. But do keep the above levels on the graph in mind while trading as they have been validated many times by market in last one year as you can notice. 

#55 Nifty Update

Bears and Bulls are playing See-saw!!!! But now i think bulls have taken the driving seat. NIFTY closed on Hill top at 5633 up by 92 points. It has closed above all the major resistance level except the one big 5663. One of the driving force for today’s market was the announcement of bail out plan of Greece yesterday which resulted in all global markets for positive move. On the result side AXIS BANK posted a rise of 27% on YoY basis at 942 crores. It was slightly higher then the market expectation which rose the stock by almost 5%. Just in was that CCEA has approved the Deal of RIL-BP and it will be recorded as the biggest FII deal in India. RIL is also going to post its quarterly results on monday and its expected to post quiet good results. So expect RIL to blast on ODIN screen on monday on both positive news. Technically speaking “Morning Star” pattern has been witnessed on Daily chart of NIFTY. NIFTY close has been above all the moving averages and bullish can be confirmed when monday close is above 5582. On triangle side major resistance is at 5663 on breakout of which you might see new highs. RSI and Stochastic are about to give a bullish breakout. Strategy on NIFTY for risk takers will be buy on Dips with SL of 5567.
NIFTY levels for 25th July:-
R-5657             S-5616
R-5705             S-5582
R-5740             S-5555
R-5806             S-5536