NIFTY had a teasing opening today.SGX NIFTY and all asian markets were positive so we were bullish on market but it happened the other way. Our markets open in red and remained red for all the day. Mine owning companies dragged NIFTY down because a bill is prepared which states that companies has to share the royalty with the people who are affected by the mining company. Quarter results are expected to be low due to higher input costs in month of april and may. Dark cloud cover has been seen on NIFTY daily chart and bearish engulfing pattern is seen in many frontline stocks like Reliane, ICICI Bank and AXIS BANK. Even a perfect Doji is witnessed on SBI chart. Therefore above mentioned all are signs of bearish trend in the market further. As I had been mentioning that 5748 is a crucial resistance , market has supported my point. So now my strategy is to sell NIFTY with targets of 5600/5576/5505/5450/5320/5200
NIFTY ‘s move was a unexpected one but a superb recovery. NIFTY closed almost 100 points up at 5729 to break out all resistance level. Now, 5750 is the biggest hurdle for the market which is a Fibonacci retrenchment level of last one year. SBI is coming up with the FPO of rs.20000cr in near future. One more country in EU has been fighting debt crisis which is Portugal. If Portugal government is not able to rescue itself then it could be problem global economies which may effect emerging markets such as India and China. TATA steel has been performing well in the market and its awaiting for a approval of a mining license which if granted will be beneficial for the company on cost of raw material. Quarter results are about to announce of all the companies and it is expected that IT sector will perform well and it is already discounted in the market with all IT shares accelerating faster then index in last 2 weeks. Wipro is expected to grow at least pace with regard to QoQ numbers. Government is going to auction the 3rd Phase of Radio license very soon. Technically market opened at the low of today and it moved on with the support of MACD and RSI’s bullish crossover. When open and low of any script and index is same it is a bullish sign. Now watch out for 5748 level.
NIFTY was as boring as a circus is for us now. NIFTY opened flat and made a high of 5651 and low around 5610 which was its range today for the market. Intraday players have no major play since last few session as market is consolidating in narrow range. But we have witnessed stock specific movements in the markets. Sugar sector is one of the outperforming sector in last week after the export limits were increased. BHEL was down yesterday on the news that government is going to disinvest its 5% stake from the company. China has increased rates by 25bps which might have effect on our markets tomorrow and we expect that we might see levels of 5570. Technical today a “grave stone doji” has been witnessed on NIFTY chart which suggest a bearish mood of investors. So I would suggest to sell NIFTY with a sl of 5700 tgt 5570/5506/5450.
NIFTY today opened flat but then showed some profit booking in all scripts with market staying in red all the time. NIFTY closed at 5632 which was above a strong support of 5600. Market is yet not able to decide the its road ahead. Nothing fundamental in the domestic region to move market on the either side. Technically speaking today a hammer has been formed which might have significance of reversal in the market. Still my call is wait and watch for the either level to breakout at 5600 or 5750.
NIFTY was just left by 3 points to confirm a down trend as did Indian Team was left by just 3 wickets to win the series over West Indies. NIFTY opened on a gap and made a high of 5679 and then filled the gap with a low of 5633. NIFTY close again marginally up at 5650. Market is in a very confusing range. On upper side market has a resistance of 5745 (Fibonacci level of last one year retrenchment) and support of 5600 which is a 100 and 200 DEMA levels.Todays close was at 9 week High. Auto Sales figure were out and they were fairly good and are expected to increase in festive season. U.S. Markets are closed today on account of their Independence Day. Monsoons are expected be lower then Normal which is acting as a big concern for the economy as a whole. Steel sector report of last week says to be cautious about the segment but as i said earlier before few weeks TATA steel is still a good buy for your portfolio for long term. Technically speaking stochastic is in overbought condition on daily chart while MACD is about to pierce central line giving a buy call, so my view is to wait until it breaches the either level at 5600 or 5745.
NIFTY opened at the level which was the target by rumors i.e, 5710 level which i mentioned in my reports last week. NIFTY was able to close above 5600 for second consecutive day which is a positive sign. Now Monday’s close will be a crucial point. If the market closes below 5600 then we could see a down side for next expiry. Reliance today was bumped by almost 5% creating a bearish engulfing pattern. We could now see reliance near to 840 levels again. Technically speaking, NIFTY has left behind 2 gaps which is expected to be fill as per TA rules. So I would suggest shorting NIFTY below 5600 with SL of 5700 with Targetsof 5505/5450/5335 and Buy NIFTY above 5753 with T-5936
NIFTY was a boomerang today with a volatile session but at the end it gave a end above the crucial breakout of 5600 at 5647. NIFTY has to close above 5600 level one more day to confirm the false formation of inverted head and shoulder. Next resistance level is 5720-5750 which a Fibonacci retrenchment level of last one year is. RSI and MACD on daily chart are showing strength for bulls while stochastic is showing some profit booking for almost 50-70 points. Greece bailout plan was final passed yesterday which gave a boost to all markets around the world including commodity markets. Indian Inflation is gonna possible stable near 6.5% mark by March 2012 as said by PM. Today being expiry in last few mins heavy buying was seen in the market. NIFTY now seems to have catch up a good move so strategy is to buy NIFTY with Targets 5720/5936 with a SL of 5575.
NIFTY is acting as a JUMPER since last 5 trading sessions with recovery of almost 300 points which is good for us. Market closed at a very crucial point i.e., 5600 level which is a most important level for breakout. Technically speaking today market opened with a Gap of 8 points which is significant. if market closed above 5600 levels for 2 more trading session then we could see 5936 levels. Double bottom is witnessed on weekly chart as seen in the graph today. All the global cues are positive and so we have seen a rally towards sky in all the markets. TATA motors got some relief on singur land and govt. won’t return land to farmers. In Auto segement, Toyota Etios is giving a good fight to Maruti’s Dzire. Vedanta-Cairn deal has moved further 10% up on the acquisition of “buy back” shares by Vedanata and remaining 30% deal to commence after government nod. My long term picks Jain Irrigation, TATA Steel and BHEL have achieved their first target and I still recommend to buy on dips for long term. Strategy for tomorrow is wait and watch as its expiry tomorrow. Don’t take any new positions until market is above 5700 and exit in existing positions below 5500.
Today the fight was between rumors and technicals. Rumors were strong at the start with the high of around 5557 while technicals were indicating a down trend and market made low of around 5496 from the high. But at the end rumors were slightly strong and ended up with 18 points up. NIFTY is facing two strong resistance at 5566 and 5576 which ought to be 100 DEMA and 200 DEMA respectively. Technically speaking market will resist around 5570 levels and have a bounce back upto 5330. But a dragon fly Doji has been witnessed today on daily chart so probably we might see a upside potential but only if we see a breakout of 5576. On the positive side, FII has been increasing its activities in the Indian market and we have seen incredible increase in net investment by them in last 3 trading session. Hike in price isvbeen positively discounted by the analyst as it was necessary for fiscal control and inflation. All the foreign markets are in positive rally which has supported our markets. Mutual funds will be a new scheme of investing for FII and SEBI is working on the norms for thesame. My last week portfolio pick “jain irrigation” has shown the movement and have achieved almost rs.14 from my call. Being a Technical Analyst i still suggest selling NIFTY (cash) with a Stop loss of 5586 and Buy NIFTY above 5600 with SL-5556.
NIFTY levels for 29th June:-
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