Category Archives: Stocks

#1 My View: How long can XUV drive mahindra?

Mr. Anand Mahindra is the only Public figure from Auto Sector or may be from any manufacturing, which is highly followed on Twitter. M&M is not so common in portfolio as its Tata may be because of its conservative approach to its production or driving company. 26% stake is owned by family and may be he is the last hierarchy to manage group. Interesting to know M&M has 41% share of SUV in india while SUV is 55% source of companies cash Flow. On the tractor side, it has 1/3rd cash flow from that segment. Considering the balance sheet, its net consolidated debt of the group is almost nil. But why i wont prefer this for a long term portfolio against its peers. Why? Firstly, it does not invest much over research department against its peers and Secondly, its betting on SUV only and has very narrow product range. Now today the craze is of SUV so company is getting a edge over it but what if the craze is over? M&M doesnt have much holding in sedan or small segment. Do to over crowd in Cities people are shifting their ideas from SUV to small cars. Company said they are exploring rural markets but i doubt they could get much market out from rural. Thirdly, after Mr. Mahindra resigns the company we have to watch out for the guy in charge whether he is capable of doing it as good as Mr. Mahindra. So in all company is conservative one, but probably looking at american buy-out for technology improvement. Before entering with a long term view we need to wait and watch.

This is my personal view and there may be some biasness. Please study carefully before investing on my idea

#36 Stock update: NaNo completes its drive to 375 Km

In our #27 Stock update on 12th February we recommended to go long blindly on Tata Motors with tgt of 375 and we have achieved that this month. It was recommended at 298 and tgt of 375 which is 25% return in 8 months. We did mention further tgts of 445 and 508 but there arent still activated. Looking at the charts at current situation, weekly chart suggest some retracement. As we could notice that Tata Motors was on a upside channel and now looking at the indicators of weekly time frame than i am smelling a breakout of that channel on downside. Next tgts 445/508 is expected to be activated after some retracement

Our recommendation is to buy on dips

 At Rs. 362 buy 40%
At Rs. 351 buy 10%
At Rs. 340 Buy 20%
At Rs. 314 buy rest 30%
              

#35 Stock Update: Bank on Some Fitness

              Market mid-caps are at attractive to valuation but we have to select few out of the pool. One of them after Dena Bank amd Adani Power which we recommend is Talwalkars Fitness. Why??? Looking first into some basic fundamentals. Sales Turnover has been gradual increasing from 66 crores on March 2010 to 145 crores in March 2013 (rounded off). Earning per share (EPS) for the same period has been up from 4.39 to around 10.5. Talking about Book value than its currently at Rs. 77. One safe thing about talwalkars is that it has secured loans of around 125 crores while has reserves of 176 crores. Looking at listed peers for the stock than its only COSCO India with EPS at 0.70 and Book value at 32. Indias demographic says we have most population of the age between 18-35 and i guess they are now more health conscious.  Firstly, Gym is like a trending fashion amongst high school kids and College teens. Secondly, Going for a branded title is also a must for them. Both the conditions are favorable for Talwalkars.

                 Coming to charts. Talwalkar has given a breakout to strong resistance line with Huge volume as seen in the charts. Secondly now its taking support at new line. Stock has given a double bottom support around 109 level after listing in 2011. Currently it is resisting near to its 200 EMA at 141 but looking at indicators and volumes its a buy on Dip for long term

Our Strategy:We recommend to go Long at CMP at 137 tgts 179/320 Sl: 117 for a long term view

#34 Stock Update: New Morning for Adani Power

Our new recommendation for Multibagger is ADANIPOWER. I know stock has been in down trend since a life time high of 144 but now i am witnessing some accumulation on the weakly chart around 32-34 levels and Volumes are way above avg volumes. Technically on daily chart indicators have turned Super Bullish and stock is comfortably trading above all short term moving averages. A resistance line is around 35 which could act as a miniature breaker but the bull power since to over come it. On weekly chart currently candlestick pattern ‘morning star’ is in formation and for risk taker its a good time currently to go long for long term.

Our Recommendation: GO Long for risk takers and safe traders above 35 with tgts of 47/55 

#33 Stock Update: Buy DenaBank

Midcap index is consolidating and just moved out to give a breakout on upper side. I just came across this stock and just noticed a interesting trendline on the month chart. The stock has been taking support at that line since 2001 and today its is trading around the same level. We would recommend to go long for holding it for almost 2-3 years. Secondly it has a good dividend yielding record as follows,

14th June 2007    Rs. 0.80
26th June 2008    Rs. 1.00
2cd July   2009    Rs. 1.20
7th July    2010    Rs. 2.00
7th July    2011    Rs. 2.20
21st June 2012    Rs. 3.00
20th June 2013    Rs.4.70
So looking other way it has a good return on investment. For Example, if you invest at CMP at Rs.47 and if the yield remains at Rs.4.70 than to you have 10% ROI which is tax free and price appreciation would be a added advantage as its at the strong support level to go long.  

#32 Stock Update: Recommending Telecom sector Pick- "tata communication"

Sector
Call Date
Initiated price
CMP
Tgts
Return
Maruti Suzuki
Auto
30/10/2012
1390
1418.80
1789/2870

2.08%
Dena Bank
Banking
11/2/2013
104.55
95.80
156/195/256
-8.37%
Tata Motors
Auto
12/2/2013
298.55
301
375
0.8%
Adani Enterprise
Mining
18/2/2013
232
240

435/897
3.44%
Ambuja Cement
Cement
25/2/2013
200
190.50
280/325
-5.00%
Ranbaxy
Pharma
12/3/2013
417
433
572/697/1166
3.8%
TaTa Communications
Telecomm
14/3/2013
233.75

233.75
290/392/523
0%

Today i am initiating a recommendation in Telecom Sector. You must be surprised with my stock selection “Tata communication”. Though its not much active amongst trader as much as Bharti,Rcom or Idea,but its a defensive choice. Group company is what has attracted to me and ofcourse technical chart. Stock has seen a high of 783 (approx) and thn saw a low of 191. But it has than consolidated for almost a year now. Consolidation is the sign that stock may see some bull momentum. one year of consolidation is the key factor defending our choice. Taking into consideration its fundamental, it running through some debt issues but it on the verge of completing a land deal worth of Rs, 2500 crore. If the land deal is closed in near future than 290 tgt is much possible by than. Long term target though is coming down to 1300 though its in nxt 8-10 years. But its a gud bet and it can work as a insurance to your portfolio. Keep a stop loss of 191 and just go long at CMP. After entering this stock in our portfolio, nw we are exposed to all key sectors of the economy. Now its tym to find some risky stocks and they are coming soooon……

#31 Stock update: Our Porfolio status as of 12th March

Stock
Sector
Call Date
Initiated price
CMP
Tgts
Return
Maruti Suzuki
Auto
30/10/2012
1390
1417
1789/2870
1.9%
Dena Bank
Banking
11/2/2013
104.55
96
156/195/256

8.2%
Tata Motors
Auto
12/2/2013
298.55
305
375
+2.1%
Adani Enterprise
Mining
18/2/2013
232
240
435/897
+3.4%
Ambuja Cement
Cement
25/2/2013
200
190
280/325

-5%
Ranbaxy
Pharma
12/3/2013
417
417
572/697/1166
0%
Overall
-1%

#29 Stock Update: "Bhaiya yeh Deewar nahi tutegi"

Ambuja cement stock price states its product strength. The stock has never looked back since it has been listed. Bonuses ,regular dividends and plus price appreciation has been all present in the rally. Investor who has hold it since issue would have seen its cost price at less than 0 now. Am i right?? Do you feel you have missed the stock? Nope..You can still enter the stock with the tgts of 280 and 325. Keep a stop loss of 175.

#28 Stock Update: Mining sector stock Pick for Portolio-"Adani Enterprise"

Mining sector stocks has seen beating of around 50-80% on avg after the scam in 2010. Some of the stock from sector which saw the most beating are Adani Enterprise, JSWSteel and Jindal Stel. Looking at those counters now Adani Enterprise chart seems to saw some positive trait. Stock has declined from 770 to 153 in 2 years. From the low of 153 it made a high of 290 in recent months. Thats almost 90% return frm the low. This gives some confirmation!!! have a look at weekly chart it gives a technical support at 207 and did bounced back from there. On other hand Guj govt took away the stay order from the company for mining and this may bring some positive move from the stock. So we recommend to go long long at 232 with tgts of  435 and 890 for long term.

#27 Stock Update: NaNo will drive you to "375" in 6-8 months

“Tata Motor” cars aren’t famous amongst rich middle class but it means a lot to two imp class: Low middle class and Upper Rich class. Why?? Low middle class gets a affordable car Nano and Indica while Upper rich  class gets Jaguar, Land Rover and Range Rover. So the company has got a good hold on the major % of indian population. If they are not the market leader yet thn they could be in near future. Tata Motors have just quadruple their investment in takeover of Jaguar so company is in good position fundamentally. Sales could pick up more in coming times when economy condition improves. So fundamentally the company could get more stronger in coming time. Now coming to the benefit of traders. Stock has rallied from the low of Rs.12 in 2001 to 199 in 2006. But than bad times took it to 24.20 from which stock has never looked back until 337. I could catch some patterns on the stock and could feel that 289 could be a long time support. For the Portfolio investors this the right time to enter the stock . Stock could go upto 445-508 but it   will take to activate that target. So just go long on the stock currently and 375 has been activated which could be achieved in 3-6mnths i.e, 25% return.