Volatility has been peaking since last few sessions, not just in India, but around the world. This brings some fear among traders. If we talk about some crucial factors signing a massive move ahead are: 1) Cash Portion avg in US Mutual fund is at 5.5% which is near to the same level it was in 2008 just before crisis. 2) VIX position in US is at record high levels. 3) Foreigners Open Interest in Indian Derivatives is at record high levels of life time. These are the few points which gives me strong intuition of a massive move on either side ahead!……..Which side? …….I would say preferably Sell Side! In my last post i did mention to go Sell on rise on Nifty and we got ample opportunity to go short at higher levels than the day i posted. Let me point out to you a downside channel which is just confirmed today making support for near term around 8550 while for resistance side 8800 is upside channel resistance as well option resistance built up today. So may be for this 8800 could act as resistance and 8550 as downside target. All saw Nifty PCR at 1.10 ! But why arent we getting that downside move quick?….Because we need a reason to confirm downside… This reason could come in from FED, BoJ or War…It wouldnt matter what the reason will be but its going to get a tag for next fall….So strategy remains sell on rise with first target at 8550 and SL at 8980. 

2 thoughts on “Reason would be just a confirmation!

  1. Amit Kumar

    Do u feel it is a correction or a trend change?
    In case of trend change (Since you have mention cash levels in MF in US at 2008 precrisis level) do U you see the down move to go lower than feb lows(6800)

  2. Pingback: Nifty Confirms Downside | Kush Ghodasara, CMT CFP CFTe

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